Session 3 of September 2010

Another decent effort. Averaged 28/21 simply by virtue of the number of fish popping up left right and centre. I didn't lose many pots at all through focus on reverse equity folds, and just didn't give anything away through any kind of PF spew.

Triple barrel for balancing. http://weaktight.com/2629424 I didn't mean to bet the turn so small. This is one of those spots that I just love when they call with QT and just feel so owned. Similar to the spot below actually, albeit that was yesterday:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	BMW_GOLFPRO2	$528.14
UTG+1	IM_CANDYGIRL	$478.50
CO	NAWADEE	$294.50
BTN	GROGHEADFLOW	$400
SB	DANISH33	$13.12
BB	AARONAGUSTO	$708.10

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is BTN
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 raises to $12, 1 fold, NAWADEE calls $12, GROGHEADFLOW calls $12, 2 folds

• Flop ($42, 3 players)
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 checks, NAWADEE checks, GROGHEADFLOW bets $25, BMW_GOLFPRO2 calls $25, NAWADEE folds

• Turn ($92, 2 players)
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 checks, GROGHEADFLOW bets $60, BMW_GOLFPRO2 calls $60

• River ($212, 2 players)
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 checks, GROGHEADFLOW bets $303, BMW_GOLFPRO2 calls $303

• Final Pot: $818

• GROGHEADFLOW shows
• 

• BMW_GOLFPRO2 shows
• 

• GROGHEADFLOW wins $814.50 (net +$414.50)
• BMW_GOLFPRO2 lost $400
• NAWADEE lost $12

Then a funny sort of spot here http://weaktight.com/2629428

PF, the guy bets 15% on the button. I'm assuming it's wider still BTN vs CO. We're 200bbs, and a flat is fine. On the flop, I'm usually the first to scream reverse equity, but I can make some assumptions that allow me to play future streets very confidently. Firstly, if the turn comes a low blank he's checking down his air for sure, meaning I get to see showdown fairly easily.

Secondly, there's a good chance he checks a piece of this board this deep, so 9x is almost out.

Thirdly, if the turn comes an ace, then I can call again as he's ALWAYS betting his air twice (but KK-TT disappear), but my perceived range would be such that he wouldn't bluff the river as I very likely have an AQ type hand that floated this dry of a flop. An ace coming is also in my favour, as it gets checked back a decent % of the time. Don't discount set and GS outs too.

I was a bit lost here http://weaktight.com/2629443 on the river. Paired board, non-nut flush, albeit a very suspicious and cally opponent. I shoved for want of a better option. I think 1/3 pot is better though in hindsite, and I must remember that option for future similar spots.

One more session before bed. Tight PF, no PF spew, the rest should hopefully follow........

dan

Sessions 1+2 of September

I met my immediate goals both sessions, ie no PF spew and a 22/18ish style. I was 3 handed and HU for quite a bit of the second session, so obviously had to ramp it up a little but on the whole I didn't give much away.

I probably ran quite well too, especially in the first session.

This hand, I can't quite decide between raising flop and calling.

http://weaktight.com/2628635

On the one hand, I rep a ton more by calling. On the other hand, in practice, the guy is barrelling any overcard (32% chance of over card coming on the turn), leaving me often stuck calling again then making an unconvincing river bluff. By raising, he might peg me for a flush draw and that only, but really there's not a whole lot he can do about it. I think in his shoes I check jam the turn if he's never folding on a blank, as really he shouldn't expect me to continue my bluff on the river. Running well here is the river being a J and not a 6........

http://weaktight.com/2628741 I did not know what to do on the river. I think betting butchers it though......

http://weaktight.com/2628795 Very unsure here on the river. I think he's supposed to have QJdd, and that only, but then I didn't want to call either. Hmm.

dan

September Starts Here

The start of every month is the 'most important', but I really feel like this September is the most important I've had this year. It's long, it's unbroken, I have no shitty festivals or weddings or stag dos taking up 4 day chunks of my time. I'm coming off the back of an $11k upswing after being stuck the same amount, and it's my best chance to post $20k+ for the first time this year.

I've written similar blogs at the start of months before. Then something flips inside my head, I stop making blog posts, I drop $9k in the first 3 or so days. Then I get my head on, analyse everything properly, identify leaks and weaknesses, and probably drop down a level. Then I spend the rest of the month getting even.

This time has to be different. This time, I need all the rigour of success from day 1, session 1.

I've had a few losing sessions today and yesterday. Complacency definitely set in. Currently, this manifests itself in the following two ways:

• Tons of PF spew, tons of getting in 33/ AQo UTG+1, etc.
• Stats hit something like 33/25 again.

A word about stats and 3bet %s and such. Obviously there's nothing wrong in playing 33/25 in itself, given I'm happy in lots of postflop situations. There's nothing wrong with 3betting a lot, provided it's controlled.

Importantly though, we should look at one of the main reasons for playing so loose. The main reason I've always played so loose is so that my ranges are always wide, and I'll always get paid off with my big hands.

Plenty of the hands I play when playing 33/25, ie 97s UTG 6 handed, blatantly can't be played profitably VS 5 decent opponents in a vacuum. I can just about break even though, and the whole image that is subsequently projected means nobody is folding TT to my UTG+1 3bet, nobody is finding a hero fold with AJ on an Ace hi board in a 3bet pot VS me, etc.

To play 97s remotely profitably too, I'm going to need some decent amount of fold equity from time to time. That doesn't mean folding out Ace and K hi, it means making someone fold AT on a JT3hh flop from time to time.

So two things,

a) I don't have that FE.

b) The main reason for the looseness, ie the subsequent paying off, is already there and isn't going anywhere any time soon.

The above might not be true if people actually cared about session gameflow any more. But I don't think any of the middling regs do. They've got a HUD, it says I 3bet every position 14%. They have notes, it says I triple barrel most wet boards with junk providing a smidgen of equity.

GuiGui is I think a very good example. Everyone has a story of the time Gui 3bet/5bet 87s for example. Everyone knows that he's capable of overbet bluffing, and cbet/ CRing the turn with marginal draws. The fact that we have this knowledge makes him more difficult to play against than it actually should be given his frequencies for such moves are frankly (IMO) extremely low.

I'm basically in Gui's position, ^100, and it's time I exploited that properly with a massive gear change, simply by virtue of keeping myself at around 22/18. If I'm ever much looser in a session, it's either going to be by virtue of a fish to my right, or laziness.

So first session of September coming up. Goals are to stay 22/18ish, and not to do any PF 5bet spews. Review to follow in 45................

Robusto!

I don't think the image works. I guess I thought it'd look like a gigantic grin, but if anything actually it's just a shaggy beard. Which is also apt given the obsession I've shown to digging myself out of this hole.

I'm still 6.5k below EV, down from $11.5k at my lowest ebb, so obviously I've made some of that on the upswing.

The upswing has all been 6 tables, averaging 23/18 and 10% 3betting. So basically nittier PF, but I haven't really changed anything postflop at all, I'm just getting into less scrapes by virtue of frequencies.

45.75 hours left to make some August money now...........

dan

Small Change of Direction

I haven't documented every session. I've done OK, but a few obvious mistakes are still letting me down. Still important to change things up until I get back into a winning groove.

This hand from today shows off my current image:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	SHABBAXXX	$200
CO	WBFINIST	$202.40
BTN	CRATERING	$201.25
SB	GROGHEADFLOW	$355
BB	ARSENIK666	$322

• Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is SB
• 

2 folds, CRATERING raises to $5, GROGHEADFLOW raises to $19, 1 fold, CRATERING calls $14

• Flop ($40, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $18, CRATERING calls $18

• Turn ($76, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $41, CRATERING calls $41

• River ($158, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $277, CRATERING calls $123.25

• Final Pot: $558.25

• CRATERING shows
• 

• GROGHEADFLOW shows
• 

• GROGHEADFLOW wins $554.75 (net +$199.75)
• CRATERING lost $201.25

Weirdly, although I was obviously chuft to see him call down here, a part of me was like Jesus have things really gotten that bad?

I've averaged 30/24 this month. Now, I think it's a myth that certain hands 'need' FE to be profitable, as this doesn't take into account the players present. 87s VS a fish doesn't need FE, I'm just gonna make a lot of money the times it makes a hand. VS regs at the moment though with my current image, I'm pretty sure I'm finding it hard to play a ton of hands where previously I could rely on getting a lot of folds.

So, while still keeping the same goals spelt out a few blogs ago, I'm having a mini change of direction. I'll be 6 tabling, but aiming for more like 21/18 type stats. This is a pretty drastic sudden change, and I wouldn't expect it to be picked up on for a while, if ever. Postflop, I'm still going to be animalastic where I think necessary, but tighter preflop will mean my frequencies for said plays will go down a whole lot.

So about to play a session, I'll post results and vpip/pfr and review the hands once I'm done.

dan

Fourth Session

Won again, around a buyin. Felt very tuned in and played some decent hands.

http://weaktight.com/2592737

http://weaktight.com/2592739

Didn't lose more than 20bbs in a hand except this one: http://weaktight.com/2592742 , meaning with a VPIP of over 30 I was on top of reverse equity spots and not spewing PF.

The minute I massively slip in any of my stated session goals this blog will be the first to know about it.

dan

3rd Session

I won again:

Being aware of reverse equity situations- 6

http://weaktight.com/2592604 - so this is a spot where I need to be folding the turn or maybe even flop. On the turn, my instinct is to say 'right my hand is the same as A3'. Because of the equity even his semi bluffs have (all turned spades, most of which have overs too), this isn't remotely true:

99

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 85.872% 85.87% 00.00% 16776 0.00 { AA, 88, 55, 22, AJs+, A8s, A5s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, QcJc, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, ATo+ }

Hand 1: 14.128% 14.13% 00.00% 2760 0.00 { 99 }

A3

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 65.696% 65.48% 00.21% 4927 16.00 { AA, 88, 55, 22, AJs+, A8s, A5s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, QcJc, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, ATo+ }

Hand 1: 34.304% 34.09% 00.21% 2565 16.00 { A3s }

So a fail on reverse equity, but a lesson learned.

Tighter opening UTG, UTG+1. - 10

Not spewing PF with 4bets 100bbs deep, and light 3bet/5bets with not enough of a reason for them. - 7.

http://weaktight.com/2592607 - if I ever am going to 3bet/5bet, I'd much rather be doing it with a small pair rather than AQ, especially because most won't always be 4betting TT IP. In this spot, I'd just won a big pot off him and I felt he was tilted and I was pretty sure he was 4betting light. Different to the Iketoys hand, where I was just playing guessing games.

Applying plenty of pressure in small and medium sized pots, but remembering that what often separates a lagtard from a decent player is the ability to recognise as early as possible when a bluff has failed. - 7/10, not good not bad. In this hand, I should probably give up the turn on that exact card, http://weaktight.com/2592608 but at least didn't overshove the river!

Bobbo-esq cbet strategies as a default, unless very good reason not to.- 10/10

4 tables, time on decisions. 10/10

Solid in big pots. 10/10, I didn't lose any. I made one light call down here http://weaktight.com/2592611 (Matt's student!) that looks less light when the board pairs, but say the river was Q/K it was getting snapped given gameflow and combos of value hands actually there (very few) VS tons of overs+GS type things.

Don't fold in big pots. - 10/10

What does he expect me to do? 10/10 - typically this involves biggish folds. None really came up though.

Plan 3 barrels around the PSR. 10/10

So next session, we'll see if any leaks resurface.........

dan