Session 6

Hands: 332

Net: $132

I played OK for the most part, but there was one hand where I lost a lot of money OOP with no hand that I'm pretty angry about. I had a decent note on him as well that I should have utilized and saved/ earned myself an additional $200.

Then this hand: http://weaktight.com/2537291 I think on the river he has a ton of weak pairs+ turn GSs and I don't mind my jam. C'est la vie.

Hands - Notes - Adjustments

$1/$2 Ante $0.50 No Limit Holdem • 3 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

BTN	DIAMONDJIM99	$223
SB	Hero	$402
BB	RHINOFISH	$210

• Pre-Flop ($4.50, 3 players)Hero is SB
• 

DIAMONDJIM99 folds, Hero raises to $8, RHINOFISH raises to $24, Hero calls $16

• Flop ($49.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, RHINOFISH checks

• Turn ($49.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $27, RHINOFISH calls $27

• River ($103.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $350.50, RHINOFISH calls $158.50

• Final Pot: $612.50

• Hero shows
• 

• RHINOFISH shows
• 

• Hero wins $610.50 (net +$208.50)
• RHINOFISH lost $210

It's possible my PF call is marginal here OOP... he's just going to be able to make too many good turn decisions even when I peel a low flop, ie check to hit river or bet better. Maybe calling flop and leading the turn is a better bet in a spot like that, but then it depends on my having a decent guess how he'll react to a line like that with different hands.

But anyway, I flop a set. Leading is an option, but I only need 2 steets to get the money in anyway. My turn bet appears small at first glance, however I felt something like $39 would blow away a marginal pair hand with an implied river shove. In hindsite, I don't think this is true and I should've bet more to make it harder for him to fold the river. By the river, I just think he has a weak K a lot and isn't about to fold it (he's a bad splashy reg).

What can I learn from this hand about this opponent?

Note:

3bet me BvB PF with K5o

Adjustment:

Assuming he's 3betting a linearly similar range in this spot (not a great assumption) I should stop opening hands that can't stand a 3bet. Small and mid pocket pairs 100bbs I should just straight raise and 4bet jam (the expectation of picking up the pot in this spot is higher than having him 3bet/5bet ATo). AQ, AJs and KQ I can flat OOP and have a decent read on him postflop, thus:

Note:

Didn't cbet weak top pair on dry board in 3bet pot.

Adjustment:

Married to his propensity to 3bet junk in some spots, I can start check jamming a much wider range when he does cbet. If he's checking k5 there, he's probably the type to 3bet ATo and check AJ3. I'm not saying I should check jam AJ3, but say BTN vs CO he fires a J74ss board then my KQ becomes a snap jam 100bbs. One further point to make is that I'd rather he 3bet me larger and have a smaller PSR postflop if this is to be my plan, so perhaps I can be making it 4x CO vs his BTN, similar to BvB to make my play more viable.

dan

Session 5

Hands: 292

Net: $642

I played pretty well in this session, but mostly it was just my opponents making pretty big mistakes, while I made only a few small ones.

http://weaktight.com/2536392 - he needs to bet much bigger on the turn, and then not completely butcher the river.

http://weaktight.com/2536394 - small PF adjustment here. Both the blinds kept having auto fold on in the blinds, so minraising was making a huge exploitation of this. One of them actually put autofold on the flop I noticed late on, so in future VS him I'm going to be min cbetting my bluffs.

I considered raising the turn, but felt I'd have more information as to whether to stack or not based on his river betsizing. 4 combos of q9 in his range, 3 combos of 22 and 1 combo of 99 = 8 combos that beat me VS a smaller number of worse flush combos. By the river though his hand is face up.

http://weaktight.com/2536405 wasn't sure about the turn call here, but I needed 25% equity and with a few combos of KQ and AQ I have it. Throw in some implied odds (that hopefully outweigh the reverse implied odds of a hand like KQ given I'll make better decisions) and I think it's fine. PF, he was 17/8 after 100 hands so I just wasn't about to get it in to a 3x raise and 3x 3bet.

Session 3+4

Hands: 675

Net: $170

A key part of my analysis from this point on will be to analyse hands from my opponents point of view, so that I can better identify mistakes.

http://weaktight.com/2536110 -I used to do this in his shoes. These days though the sure sign of a bad reg is one who 4bet folds the SB... it just doesn't happen, and he shouldn't perceive any FE and against my 4bet call range he's just annihilated.

http://weaktight.com/2536112 - pretty sad that I got bluffed here, especially with the mass of reads I had on the guy at the time from just a smallish amount of hands. Basically I had previously seen him bet small with the nuts and check top pair type hands after taking his time. And he's a bluffy So, he's soooo polarised here when he snap bets every street without even thinking. Sad I didn't/ couldn't call, and should've gone with my read.

http://weaktight.com/2536115 - I had a few of these that really leaked money. I feel like I get flatted OOP a fair amount, and need to be 3betting more playable hands quite simply.

http://weaktight.com/2536118 - this seems spewy, but I went with my assumptions. He'd 3bet a couple of times of just 20 hands. It's a 72 table, he gave the $27 betsize tell! 32 of his combinations make up either AK or 72, with 18 making QQ+. Given this, I felt I could play fairly perfectly postflop given his less than 100bb stack. With the dead money, I can CR this and fold out/ have shove AK and 72 enough of the time and with enough equity to show a profit I'm sure if I did the maths.

dan

Next Session Review

Hands: 355

Net: $331

Quite a few notes/ adjustments I want to run through first.

Note: Some guy stabbed an ace hi turn OOP after CC blinds, GU river.

Adjustment: We can check back lighter on the flop and call turn and confidently fold the river. So, for example sometimes on the flop I hate to check back 2nd pair when I'm going to make decisions when faced with a turn and river lead. VS this guy, check back flop 3rd pair, 2nd pair etc is fine as my turn and river decisions are going to be much better.

Note: Some guy donk betted/ 3bet all in KJdd on J63hh 3way for 100bbs. Pretty terrible.

Adjustment: Until further notice, assume all donks are top pair+. Fold to them and let him save your cbet. Happily raise any TPTK+ for value.

Note: Guy flatted KQhh OOP facing a BvB 3bet, didn't stab A72 x x and we checked down and I won with Q7.

Adjustment: Possible he thought he had showdown value, but in general I should be less concerned with getting bluffed if I check the flop with marginal showdown value. If I check Q7 again there, I can fold turn.

As for some hands:

http://weaktight.com/2535090

Now this hand all hinges on his PF, flop, and turn range. I bet $32 into $40, thus needing to work 32/(32+40) = 44% of the time. So, I need 44% of his range to be 66-99 that will fold.

66-99 make up 1.8% of hands.

AQ, KQ, QJs, TT, half combos of 44,55 make up 3.6% of hands.

So I'm getting a fold 1.8/1.8+(3.6) = 33% of the time.

This is assuming that he ALWAYS a) calls these in the SB (he's a nit, maybe not) and ALWAYS calls the flop with a player to act. I think in actual fact, 66-99 only makes up half of the 1.8 based on tendencies, meaning I'm only getting a fold 0.9/0.9+3.6 = 20% of the time.

I have some equity obviously, but basically it was just a bad bet and I should be barreling someone like SUFFER much less and not rewarding his nittiness.

http://weaktight.com/2535082

The above hand is obviously a cooler at first glance, but then I started to worry about his actual river calling range. I think AJ and 22 are reasonable, although I can't put any worse flushes in there given his PF nittiness.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 80.000% 80.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 8d6d }

Hand 1: 20.000% 20.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { 22, AJs, KdQd, QdTd, Td9d, AJo }

So I'm 80% against a calling range, which actually surprised me quite a lot. Coolerville.

Session Thoughts

Hands: 447

Won: $572

Really enjoyed this session, and not just because I won 2/3 flips. I decided to scrap all my old notes and stats on players and start again from scratch, forcing myself to pay constant attention to my opponent's play on all streets and develop new reads and notes. What I found enjoyable was then using those notes to come up with counter strategies.

I played 3 tables of 6 max and 1 table of HU VS this leggo member guy GeorgeStag.

Ok because I was concentrating I was actually able to think this hand through PF.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	GEORGESTAGG	$385.85
BB	Hero	$480.45

• Pre-Flop ($3, 2 players)Hero is BB
• 

GEORGESTAGG raises to $6, Hero raises to $24, GEORGESTAGG raises to $68, Hero calls $44

• Flop ($136, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, GEORGESTAGG bets $64, Hero raises to $152, GEORGESTAGG calls $88

• Turn ($440, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $260.45, GEORGESTAGG folds

• Final Pot: $700.45

• Hero wins $699.70 (net +$219.25)
• GEORGESTAGG lost $220

I had been 3betting a fair amount with plenty of folds. So, the first adjustment was to continue to 3bet until something changed. The first time he eventually 3bet, I 4bet K8s and he folded. 3 hands later, this happened and I felt like Monkey See Monkey do was in action, completely positive that with the way gameflow etc had gone down that this was a bluff. This deep (he's polarised, and with my 2 ace blockers), and with the reads listed above, I think I'd go as far to say that 5betting AA would be absolutely horrible. That's not to say I wouldn't have snap done it this morning though and been terribly shocked at his snap fold. Postflop is somewhat standard, but I make the CR really really small to allow the possibility of a cheap bluff. I didn't know that he knew I was Mr Leggo Grog at this point, but it obviously helped get a flop peel before he folded turn.

Soon afterwards I play this hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	GEORGESTAGG	$201
BB	Hero	$698.70

• Pre-Flop ($3, 2 players)Hero is BB
• 

GEORGESTAGG raises to $6, Hero calls $4

• Flop ($12, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, GEORGESTAGG bets $10, Hero raises to $31, GEORGESTAGG calls $21

• Turn ($74, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $39, GEORGESTAGG calls $39

• River ($152, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, GEORGESTAGG checks

• Final Pot: $152

• GEORGESTAGG shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• GEORGESTAGG wins $151.25 (net +$75.25)
• Hero lost $76

I didn't 3bet as I wasn't in the mood for calling a 4bet (unneccessary given the way the previous hand had gone down, time to sit back and let him make mistakes), but mainly because I wanted to start a CRing dynamic, and this is the perfect hand for it. On the turn, I wasn't loving to continue, but my basic rule of thumb is to bet again in these spots when I pick up equity, and its fairly possible he folds some middling pocket pair. I think I have to give up the river, but it's possible I could hero call a 3 or a 4 for example.

So, adjustment/ balancing time.... I think he's going to start respecting my CRs less. My short term gameplan becomes flatting broadway hands and CRing them (chronological order).

http://weaktight.com/2534797- the flop in this hand is obviously thin, and I much prefer a further read that he'd bet call a worse 9 or lower pair on this board. As it was with the backdoor NFD as well, firstly I thought it'd be great to showdown a CR in this spot, and secondly I felt I could play pretty well even OOP on different turn cards. He's going to be flatting KJ etc, maybe even ace hi that I reverse dominate. As it was, on this particular turn card it smashes my perceived range and so when he bets I have to fold.

http://weaktight.com/2534794 - then a sad fold

http://weaktight.com/2534795 - and another *maybe he's just not adjusting to my CRs at all, and cbetting too much.

Then I played this hand, he'd previously donk folded a 467ss flop.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	Hero	$411.95
BB	GEORGESTAGG	$455.85

• Pre-Flop ($3, 2 players)Hero is SB
• 

Hero raises to $6, GEORGESTAGG calls $4

• Flop ($12, 2 players)
• 

GEORGESTAGG bets $10, Hero calls $10

• Turn ($32, 2 players)
• 

GEORGESTAGG bets $23, Hero calls $23

• River ($78, 2 players)
• 

GEORGESTAGG checks, Hero bets $63, GEORGESTAGG folds

• Final Pot: $141

• Hero wins $140.25 (net +$38.25)
• GEORGESTAGG lost $39

I decide not to raise at any point as I have such decent relative showdown value VS T9, 76 etc. So, the river is obviously a bad card in terms of my showdown value, but it makes my life much easier when he checks and waves the flag of 'I has a 9 pls check'. $63 bluff elicited a 90% timebank fold, so maybe I could have got away with $61 and a 95% timebank fold. I can obviously be value betting a TON of stuff.

Other notes and planned adjustments

http://weaktight.com/2534818 - here he showed himself capable of value betting relatively thin (relative to most 200nl guys). What's the adjustment? Bluff catch less in spots like these, and bluff raise the times he's unlikely to have the top of his range. I mentally noted this adjustment at the time, but no hands came up where it was utilized.

Some 6max hands

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	THEFLOW	$203
UTG+1	SYNODIC	$218.90
CO	Hero	$400
BTN	CUBBIEBLUE10	$414.80
SB	GEORGESTAGG	$377.35
BB	RHINOFISH	$248.40

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

THEFLOW raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $21, 3 folds, THEFLOW calls $14

• Flop ($45, 2 players)
• 

THEFLOW bets $24, Hero calls $24

• Turn ($93, 2 players)
• 

THEFLOW checks, Hero bets $30, THEFLOW goes all-in $158, Hero calls $128

• River ($409, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $409

• THEFLOW shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• Hero wins $406 (net +$203)
• THEFLOW lost $203

So preflop.... haven't played this guy for a bit, scrapped all my notes, time to create a new dynamic. He calls, which is probably his only mistake the whole hand (edit, not true, I hate the turn shove), but TBH a pretty big one VS me.

On the flop, I'm completely torn about whether to bet or not. If I bet then I'm never folding and lose more money VS slowplayed stuff, while checking allows me to rep AK and have him barrel me off it. In the end, I decide to make an assumption and stick with it, with that assuption being that JJ+ is getting 4bet, and he may not CR 99 and TT, so bet stacking off it was.

As it was, he led into me. Turn is the nuts, and I need a betsize. Assumption time again, firstly I don't think he puts me on the nuts. Secondly, I think that he'd expect me to bet bigger with the 'nuts' (with the nuts in his eyes being JJ+) on this drawy a board. So, $30 means I rep extremely little and in his eyes probably makes it most likely that I'm just completely FOS. I don't like his turn ship, I'm giving him great odds and he has showdown value, and I'm simply never bet calling worse. Plus, the PSR is so big that getting it wrong here is a pretty big mistake.

All in all, 8/10 for the session.

Dan (btw I think I might post this on leggo, seems a waste otherwise and I'm overdue a blog).

Tough Times

The month so far has been brutal, I mean really brutal. Easily the worst 9 days since I started playing poker.

These next few paragraphs will be the last time I mention this stuff, because this blog is looking forward. I'm $9k below EV at roughly 50% 400nl 50% 200nl. 10k hands. This doesn't matter. The reason is doesn't matter, is that on previous form this would make me probably breakeven on the month. The fact my EV adjusted is close to zero is a pathetic indictment of the way I must've been playing.

Of course, had I not ran so bad in all in spots, then my confidence and tilt control would've been higher and my actual results would be way higher. This isn't an excuse, just an observation that the $ consequences of running far below EV are exponentially much higher than the amount stated in HEM.

Lastly on the subject of past, I don't really believe too much in holdem downswings. What I mean by that, is that I think the variance involved is vastly overstated for a good player. GuiGui wins every single day, as does Nano. In the past, when my head and life and everything is perfect, so have I, for like months and months and months over 100s of sessions and 100ks of hands. What I'm basically saying is that whenever I see a boo hoo 30BI downswing graph, I just see a 1ptbb or breakeven rakeback pro who really shouldn't be that suprised. Given my own recent results that's exactly what I must be right now.

200nl- I haven't been respecting it. Even playing guys as tough as carrotsnake, lrdofdarkness, hardcory, I've been clicking buttons impatiently waiting to win money. I tried moving down to 4 tables the other, I got bored and went back to 6. Now, it's only possible to get bored playing 4 tables when you don't understand or have forgotten or no longer care about all the subtleties that matter. No hand in poker is easy to play in a 100% optimal fashion these days, and what I need to recover is the single (very interesting) goal of playing each hand as optimally as possible considering every possible variable, angle, and level.

I've had enough of losing. My competitive pride is extremely sore at the moment, and sulking and being petulant and losing on purpose and throwing money around and hoping to be sucked out on so I can whine some more and basically looking back- is going to get me absolutely nowhere.

So, a renewed focus on each and every hand (4 tables, timing often), and thus a renewed focus on the technical side in this blog. This helps a) improve me technically b) gets me in the right frame of mind c) helps me to remember that winning just can't be taken for granted. FWIW, I think that my technical theory is really good right now, and when I make a video or respond in forums I find myself having really good and original insights left right and centre. My current problem is application, and respect.

Very very detailed review to follow this 45 minute 200nl session.

dan

Adfjdskfdskfeokmlf,dsfls,dfdsf Obv

I only blog when I'm losing......... this pattern of losing is a verrrry familiar one. I go away for a few days, I come home, I load up some tables, I find games are starting around me.....

Then I run way below EV, irrationally my confidence disappears, I start playing RIDICULOUSLY.

***** Hand History for Game 118518840 ***** (Absolute)
$600.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, August 04, 05:52:36 ET 2010
Table SUFFOLK (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: OURRR ( $682.45 USD )
Seat 2: HAMAZRIYA3 ( $816.40 USD )
Seat 3: GROGHEADFLOW ( $600.00 USD )
Seat 4: BEARWOLFE ( $600.00 USD )
Seat 6: CRATERING ( $621.70 USD )
HAMAZRIYA3 posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
GROGHEADFLOW posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to GROGHEADFLOW [ 9c Th ]
BEARWOLFE folds
CRATERING folds
OURRR folds
HAMAZRIYA3 calls [$3.00 USD]
GROGHEADFLOW checks RAISE PF
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, Ad, 9h ]
HAMAZRIYA3 checks
GROGHEADFLOW bets [$8.00 USD]
HAMAZRIYA3 raises [$30.00 USD] FOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLD
GROGHEADFLOW calls [$22.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
HAMAZRIYA3 bets [$80.00 USD]
GROGHEADFLOW calls [$80.00 USD] UR GONNA GET WHAT U DESERVE
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
HAMAZRIYA3 bets [$160.00 USD]
GROGHEADFLOW raises [$484.00 USD] OMG WTF WHAT ARE YOU DOING!!!!!!!?????????
HAMAZRIYA3 calls [$324.00 USD]
GROGHEADFLOW shows [9c, Th ]
HAMAZRIYA3 shows [4s, Ac ]
HAMAZRIYA3 wins $1196.50 USD from main pot

Get the idea?

So from scratch again, here goes.... about to play a session, I'll discuss the interesting hands in this blog and hopefully the thinking and writing process will help kick start this month.

Playing session now.........

Ok $1k below EV again, but $1k in winnings anyway.

Hand 1: I still don't fold when facing a villain who is capable at least 1/1000 times of spazzing, and only reps a few sets:

http://weaktight.com/2519516

Hand 2: Especially when villain can't otherwise value bet... I don't mind this but :-( anyway

http://weaktight.com/2519519

Hand 3: http://weaktight.com/2519523

It's 4am, but having played such a decent session and in the right frame of mind I want to push on and get this month back in the green. I'll post if anything interesting happens.