I played a 400nl session last night with some spots I need to analyse.
http://weaktight.com/3021058 - 'MuscleSuperStar'. Weird reg. Wins very well but weird in the sense he has a flop cbet % of 24%. I've just checked and it's just as low OOP as IP...... how this translates into 3bet pots is that he has a very strong cc range in 3bet pots. I say strong, he'll cc AK hi and stuff like that, as well as pure bluffs.
Now, I don't want to copy this style or anything, but I do need to better understand it. Why is betting the flop in 3bet pots good anyway? Well, to win the pot, to get value, and to stop giving away free cards, and to balance your bluffs. If he's check calling so much, then he's going to win the pot less, get less value, give free cards and not be able to bluff the flop.
So long as I understand this, then what this means is that I should be pretty happy flatting IP VS him and thus do it with a wider range.
After cc, he's capable of firing two barrells as a bluff, betting twice for value, check raising or turning a hand into a bluff. Sometimes he check folds too. I don't know what his cbetting range is...... searching my database I can only find one and that was KQ on ATx, so it's possible his cbetting range is still really weak.
Given everything I've just written, I think I should check the flop to see a free card and take it from there. Once I've bet and he calls it's just shutdown city, and I possibly couldn't even barrel any Qs or As given he can just have them a lot.
Some triple barrells, both VS the same guy:
http://weaktight.com/3021085 - he floats a ton. On the turn, I think his call 2 range differs enough from his call 1 range that I can bet profitably in a vacuum, (KJ, TT, 9x), then on the river his call 3 differs enough from his call 2 that I can bet 3 (Qx, weak aces, other pure floats).
http://weaktight.com/3021097 - this one I like less, but again I am EP and he's floaty enough to have a ton of stuff like QJ, and he's in a nightmare spot with most Ax anyway. I dislike my river size, I think bigger for both value and bluffs to discourage bluff shoves, and I think there's a decent chance he's shoved something like 99.
http://weaktight.com/3021105 - sometime yesterday I remembered how cool small bets are. Having the 2 aces out there is a dream spot as there's probably only 8 combos in his range that can call down (all AQ).
http://weaktight.com/3021109 - funny spot, I think this is as close to a total river merge as you can get. Some regs definitely look me up with 76 here, some others find a fold with 88. My options OOP on all streets where bet or CF, and I think my river bet leads to far greater things happening than does checking.
http://weaktight.com/3021117 - result left out. You tell me, I was pretty torn. On the one hand he's definitely capable of having a bluff and turning hands into bluffs, on the other........ he sees me as a bad station and I don't think he likes burning money.
http://weaktight.com/3021122 - included as I've been torn in these spots for a while, but settled on always betting them, the smaller the better.
dan
