So anyway, Flopzilla. I'll start posting more detailed simulations etc on here, but for now here's stuff I've realised/ learned/ had cemented.
1) People miss unconnected boards a lot! Sounds obvious, but I think probably I've been way too concerned with how a board hits my perceived range over how a board just misses theirs. Example,
say we flat OTB VS a tight 15.8% UTG range. 2 flops, one is 652cc, another is k62cc. We're assuming villain cbets 100% because most simply do on these boards from these positions. We're assuming that if we play back villain will attempt to re-play back with any gutshot +.
In the past, I'd probably be more likely to play back on the 652 than the k62. Reason is I can 'rep more' yada yada, but honestly I think at 200nl, and (Zoom 200nl in particular where everything is played so much more in a vacuum) the fact that the 652cc allows him to play back 53% of the time and and the K62cc 37% of the time is worth so much more.
Sticking with the k62cc board, the 37% assumes that villain folds 77-QQ on the flop. If he flats TT-QQ and folds the rest, his overall fold is around 50%, but then given only ~ 20% of his continuing range after the flop is a flushdraw or set that won't fold 3flushes, we can still expect a lot of folds on future streets.
2) Flatting 3bets, middling suited connectors and 1 gappers connect more than I realised.
Say we raise these hands from CO, 13% SB 3bet us. I've been folding of late probably a lot more than I should. Maybe I've ran insanely badly at connecting, but when I flat 86s I feel like I'm burning money 'cos the flop is always QQJr or whatever. Instinctively, I only need at least 1 pair or a GS to play back, and this is saying I get it 56% of the time. Importantly, on many of the the kind of boards where I make a GS+, our opponent can only continue between 36% and 46% of the time. So in a vaccum VS a wide cbettor a strategy of flatting OESD+ and raising the weaker parts of our range should be printing money even without our equity.
Anyway, sure I've made a lot of mistakes, but I do think if I keep looking at this stuff and writing about it then something will go in. Like, we all know that our pocket pairs make sets ~ 1 in 8.5 times. We know QQ is a very slight favourite over AK preflop. It's probably inexcusable that I don't know, for example, on exactly what % of flops I can continue if I flat 87s in the BB. I want to get to that stage basically..............
