Cascade of warm-ups and cool-downs

Man, I need to write blogs more. When I don't I just end up with so many ideas floating around my head. They collide and interact and contradict and lead to brain implosion, and so the only way to make any sense of them is to write regular strategy blogs and get my ideas all down on paper.

I'm having a mini crisis of 'where is my edge' at the moment. On the one hand, my edge is very clear at a very decent long term 200nl winrate, but that winrate is a mean average of probably winning at a theoretical 10bb when playing well and losing at 1bb when playing badly.

Playing very openly lead to a mad heater for much of this month, but I've possibly started to push it too far and become too obsessed with winning every single pot, especially once it reaches a certain size. One thing I can remember doing well earlier in the month was having complete tranquillity about letting small pots go, and this includes 3bet pots where no bets have yet gone in. This meant that if money started to go in, I had a very clear idea of how that pot was likely to end up in my stack, and if it didn't end up in my stack I'd at least go down fighting :-P.

This ties into reverse equity too..... when you have 77 on 942ss and someone cbets the flop decently big IP, it's just a CR or fold, and probably a fold. Running this situation through the previous paragraph, there's many more situations where I'm forced to fold or make bad calls, than there are situations where I get shipped the pot. In other words, a basic -EV cc, even though we're miles ahead of their range.

In terms of bluffs, this means for example that I don't just blindly auto stab a turn in a 3bet pot. Instead, really zone in on the hand, work out if I need to fire one or two, handread the opponent from the beginning of the hand, work out how our range looks in his eyes and derive from that his strategy if we were to apply maximum pressure.

So letting small pots go, avoiding reverse equity, and applying maximum pressure when needed. One other major sorta 'strategy approach' though is in the constant applying of pressure in small pots when our opponents' range is weak. I'm talking basic flopzilla stuff, the kind of bluffs that aren't really too common 'cos all the training sites preach balance and discipline and meekly check folding every 994r flop with QJ 'cos 'we can't rep anything'. Hardly anyone really fights back at 200nl, and if they do, and we are attentive, we can easily adjust to that (the kind of people with like 33% fold to cbet are typical candidates) by going more depolarised for value. Overbets are also our friend when it doesn't seem like we can win the pot too easily.

So complementing all the above is just a good mindset, excellent mental game, autopiloting to an extent but really zoning in when we get to a medium sized pot, remembering to handread on calls and generally looking to confuse and be creative wherever possible. That's my edge summed up in about as short a way as I can manage! Now to grind a million hands over the next 30 days and get myself back to 2-5 with a decent bankroll.

dan

Strategy Update

I played a 6.5 hour session last night, 11.30pm to 6am. My mind was in great condition and weirdly it all just seemed to fly by. I wasn't thinking about 'one hour, two hours etc' and instead just present in each moment. I think I made $80 or something.

I just played a session where I really felt in tune again, really had a good idea of what was going on in the big pots and was able to trust my instinct. Difficult to generalise obviously, but usually when I'm playing well I have plenty of correct soul reads in big pots..... I had 3 that session and was really happy a) that my instincts were correct and b) that I was able to implement it and not second guess.

http://weaktight.com/6576188 - this one's just basically about his in ability not to be able to resist raising the nuts on that wet of a flop (and also not capable of shoving Jx probably).

http://weaktight.com/6576192 - preflop and flop are standard, and on the turn his bluffs increase while his value range goes right down. JJ and TT no longer bet, and crucially he won't realise that he's flatting the vast majority of Qx preflop there (and also wouldn't go bet bet with QJo for example). So by the river, his range basically = his original 3betting range, but weakened, and so it's just about whether he'd try to blow me off my faceup hand. Him thinking he has Qx, but in fact doesn't, is important as I say.

http://weaktight.com/6576194 - not super happy preflop but felt I had to given the odds and the situation (very polarised), but flop is standard...... then on the river that turn check with a single PSR and super wet board and supposedly nutted hand (overpair+) just had me screaming wtffffffff and luckily I was able to click the correct button.

One current failing though is that my WWSF and red line have plummeted again. At first I couldn't understand why, I'm still being very aggro...... but then I looked up hands from the sessions where I won like 10BIs in non showdown and I realised that, actually, I was being a different level of aggro. Overbets are something I've seemingly forgotten about, and in 'pyscho mode' there just doesn't seem to be such a thing as a lost cause.

Example 1

Example 2

There's millions of examples like the above but I won't post them all, but basically the plan is to step up the aggression even more in future sessions.......

200nl this month

I've been running hot and playing well at 200 this month, until a mini implosion the past few days where I dropped 10 BIs. Basically my mental game was pretty bad, I had bad life issues clouding my mind and distracting me, and the 10 BIs is therefore less a downswing and more of a 'deserved wake-up call'.

My style, sorta based on the realisation everyone now thinks I'm a nit, has been based on being super high intensity. Super loose preflop, loadsa 3bets/ 4bets/ 5bets, and then looking to really zone in when playing postflop and trust my instinct whilst avoiding reverse equity for the most part.

So this is just sorta a regroup blog. Until the past 2k hands I've had really good mental game..... an important aspect of playing loose and bluffing a lot is having real acceptance when things go wrong- they basically 'go wrong' all the time, but you have to learn to ignore the standard reflex to crawl back into a shell and/ or overadjust and decide the world just wants to call you now. Some people always call, some never call. Best to assume they never call (standard) and then colour them blue when they do.

So yeah, tis all!

200nl Session Review #2

I was extremely gung-ho  in the last session, probably too much so and with not enough thought. I was 3betting almost everything, but leaving my cold call ranges weak, and basically looking to go into full blooded war with whoever fought back. I think my image definitely needs to worsen somewhat, I've had more than a few comments calling me a nit and it almost certainly helps explain why I just haven't won my 'fair share' of big pots of late.

So I'm going to keep on with the same game-plan and attitude, that of constantly looking to attack weakness, but also slow down in some of my decision making and think through the spot a bit more.

200nl Session Review

I just played a session of 200 where I really opened everything up, putting on as much pressure PF as possible then looking to go a bit mental postflop. If there's one way you'd characterise the average reg at 200 it would be 'incredibly risk averse' and it felt good to be taking control of every hand and making things happen rather than sit there and wait for fish to donate.

The key thing with playing this high intensity a style is keep it under control. It's a very fine line between playing totally on the edge, and being a spewing clown. Knowing when to quit is even more important, and remembering to handread and profile regs and their tendencies also.

I had 3 big non-showdown pots that session where I lost $100 in each, but my red line was still up half a buyin and this bodes well.

Stupid Game

Well, the 500 shot went wrong as you can see. A couple of thoughts about it:

• I think I ran pretty badly. Not just in terms of EV, but also situations. I've been making really decent folds, and not stacking light at all, but I've had cooler after cooler whilst not having my 'fair share' (lol) of situations going the other way. I've always prided myself on never mentioning running bad, but honestly I just think I've never run this bad before and maybe I was never properly tested.
• Having said that, there are doubtless things to improve. I should NOT be losing at non-showdown at 11.72bb, and I think even over a small sample this is symptomatic of some leaks. Probably not enough raw preflop aggression, not enough turning hands into bluffs, too much calling a street with a big betsize without a decent plan of winning the hand (call the bet on the next street which is 90% coming, or bluffing).
• Related to the above, is that I haven't been doing enough creative bluffing. My WWSF started to fall off a cliff after being initially over 50, and my reluctance to put in flop bets without following through probably means I missed decent spots to just apply pure pressure/ or having checked the flop I didn't follow through with my plan which is to float turns/ bluff rivers etc.
• My blind 3betting has been wayyyyyy too low it turns out, only 5% overall and only 6% VS late position steals. My SB fold to LP steal has gotten as high as 82%, with my BB at 62%. I need to double my 3bet numbers there and stop being so exploitable and burning money.
• Back to creative bluffing, I just had a re-read of my blog where I listed some potential creative stuff, and I haven't been implementing any of it at 500. I think a really cool way to manipulate ranges is with betsizing, and I've probably handicapped myself by being too wedded to not cbetting in certain spots. I should be 'not cbetting' in a spot where it's hard to see a way to win the pot when called or raised, but otherwise there's gonna be times where cbetting gets the range and turn PSR exactly where I want it. An example is 4bet pots where we bet small to then threaten the whole stack on the turn with a PSR leverage bet.
• Raise flop and XR flop were both way too low at 10%... this is maybe fine, but again just shows I had no creative weapons in my locker with which to properly attack 2-5. Seems to me like I was probably scared money, and I think I was aware of this at times in 3bet pots where I wanted to make some huge bluffs but excused myself with thoughts like 'nah, keep it simple'.

Other stuff: I have loads of poker energy right now so I'm going to put that to good use. More blogs, more analysis, more creative ways of doing things. I'll also make a video series on Ivey, I'm thinking something along the lines of videos where I, for example, cbet 0%, or 3bet 0% whilst talking about the importance of playing 'differently' from your opponent. If this seems like giving too much away, I needn't worry as no-one watches them anyway :-)

I also want to start watching more videos, just to feed into my instinct and have a better feel for how the poker population at large is thinking.

Games are (not) dead

Since being back at 500 I've been absolutely astounded at some of the bad play from regs. It just makes me realise how much $ there is to be made without 'trying' too hard. Thought I'd make a blog showing some of the worst examples from the past few days.......

http://weaktight.com/6543155 - ranges, ranges! Man I was so sad to CR get this in on the flop, but felt it was the best of a bad bunch of options. When he shoved, puke, it's like AA or combo draws. Except, no! Having 3bet an early position tight open, get flatted OOP by someone who doesn't really flat a ton, cbet into a strong range and then get CR'd by someone who's check raising into an even stronger range, villain is just like fuck it I'll make the worst shove ever with JJ, a hand that when called has like 12% equity.

http://weaktight.com/6543159 - this one just for the sizing tell on the turn. Obviously reps a strong range preflop and on the flop, but on the turn with a PSR of 1.5 on a board so wet, there's just no way he doesn't bomb his value hands. Meanwhile, in a vacuum, his drawing hands don't want to bet call or bet fold so have to choose a smaller amount. I was sat there on the turn all like 'man, he CANT be so obvious to actually just have like QT/ clubs/ AQ here' but indeed, he just did.

http://weaktight.com/6543259 - same vein as hand 1, just puts in all the world's dead money.

500nl Session Review

Decent return to 500 earlier, felt much more comfortable than before I left, and was able to trust my instinct in a few decent spots.

This hand http://weaktight.com/6540608 was a major mental battle. On the one hand my instinct was screaming at me to call, and on the other was something saying 'don't be stupid, keep it simple at 500, don't have to play infinite 200 to get back to this point'. In the end I was able to step back, ask myself what my instinct was saying about the hand, and in the end clicked the right button. Hopefully, I wouldn't be going mad at myself had I been wrong. In terms of why, he was insanely wide PF, the flop stab seemed like an auto one, we block QTs and then I didn't think he'd value shove any Ax in his range.

http://weaktight.com/6540614 - just an example of being slightly unorthodox and it leading to good things. Fwiw, I thought there was zero chance he had a bluff when he CR'd the turn underbet.

http://weaktight.com/6540619 - same dude as above, and so likely just the kind of dude you have to call top x% of range VS when he's capable of being so wide and unorthodox.

2-5 Again........

I've ran well enough at 1-2 that it's time for a 2-5 shot again. I feel like playing at 1-2 with less pressure has made my game come on a decent amount, and I feel in a decent technical and mental place to do well again.

I'm not really going to change anything at all really, ie I'm not going to be 'it's 2-5, gotta do xyz', just more of the same. Looking at their range, looking at our range in opponent's eyes, deriving their strategy from this....... and then being much more careful with dead money, checking more oop, and trying to basically be creative wherever possible.

HH review to follow........

Strategy Update

Had a good couple of days results wise until today, but I think it's fairly clear from my plummeting red line, WWSF and general poor results today (where I won a lot more big pots than I lost, and yet lost money) that I've allowed the leak of 'bleeding money' to creep in.

What I mean by bleeding money is the habit of having bets go in, without a very decent plan of winning the hand. An example might be that we 3bet QJ, check AJ5r, have an opponent stab bet the 9 turn decently strong, we call turn and fold river. It takes a decent amount of concentration for me to make the biggish early folds, as they're so often very non-standard and exploitable. Nevertheless, I think those big early folds or non-bets are a huge part of my edge and when they go out the window I struggle to win at a good clip.

Another example today http://weaktight.com/6534512, not my hand but I think today I would've played it the same, whereas it's pretty clear to me now (knowing the nitty and bad nature of the player) that it's a slam dunk flop fold.

Also out the window needs to go random flop and turn stabs that I don't then follow through on very hard..... rare is the actual legitimate '+EV one and done here' where a better solution wouldn't be to wait for a street and get more info. Auto flop stabs have crept back in, and so I need to go back to delaying. Other than that, I've probably not been going through the process of 'their range, my range in their eyes, their strategy' that enables me to make a decent amount of creative bluffs.

So yeah 2-3 things to work on, and I'll be aware of those going into the next session. Other than that I have a renewed focus on mental game...... basically trying to get back into the habit of zoning in during important spots, and analysing losing hands through a mental prism.

Back to it.........

Strategy Update

I feel much happier in my hand to hand mindset at the moment. Originally when I looked to be more creative this was putting a strain on my mental bandwidth as I was probably over considering everything starting from preflop when I'm deciding whether to cold call/ 3bet etc. Instead now I'm just sorta autopiloting that stage until I face a 3bet or am considering a 3bet. Similarly postflop, some late position turn spots are just auto stabs OOP and don't need a ton of creative thinking.

I'm barely cbetting at all OOP, but occasionally I see a wide enough range and a villain who won't fight back enough that I just cbet and look to barrel off. Cold call and fold to cbet stats are so important and compliment each other massively. Not cbetting OOP has been a massive help in killing off those hundreds of 'one and done' size pots that add up and bleed your winrate. Not only that, but we end up making more credible bluffs with a higher success rate than if simply barrelled off.

One adjustment I made last session is to cbet more IP though. I was checking back almost as a default, and I think that's OK still in a lot of spots, but some spots on a wet board where we have overs and a weakish reg we have to just start betting, and we can have complete faith in his 100% commitment to check raising anything strong and leaving his CC range pretty terrible by the turn and river.

Another thing I need to incorporate more is to raise in 3bet pots........ so often the vacuum play is to call, but doing that makes it difficult to (cheaply) win all those wide range/ boards that hit no-one type pots where our opponent has the initiative and an uncapped range. I have been raising much more in single raised pots for value/ protection and to cap ranges and I love the control over the hand it gives.

Mentally, I am completely hopeless between the hours of like 1pm and 7pm for some reason. My brain has this fog that just stops me from thinking........ rather than fight through it, the plan for this month is just to accept it and just not play during those hours. It's possibly due to lack of water, or lack of fitness since my ankles been sprained/ broke for almost 6 months now, but whatever it is I can't play when it's there so I just need to accept that.