Tuesday 11 March 2014

Stupid Game


Well, the 500 shot went wrong as you can see. A couple of thoughts about it:


  • I think I ran pretty badly. Not just in terms of EV, but also situations. I've been making really decent folds, and not stacking light at all, but I've had cooler after cooler whilst not having my 'fair share' (lol) of situations going the other way. I've always prided myself on never mentioning running bad, but honestly I just think I've never run this bad before and maybe I was never properly tested.
  • Having said that, there are doubtless things to improve. I should NOT be losing at non-showdown at 11.72bb, and I think even over a small sample this is symptomatic of some leaks. Probably not enough raw preflop aggression, not enough turning hands into bluffs, too much calling a street with a big betsize without a decent plan of winning the hand (call the bet on the next street which is 90% coming, or bluffing).
  • Related to the above, is that I haven't been doing enough creative bluffing. My WWSF started to fall off a cliff after being initially over 50, and my reluctance to put in flop bets without following through probably means I missed decent spots to just apply pure pressure/ or having checked the flop I didn't follow through with my plan which is to float turns/ bluff rivers etc.
  • My blind 3betting has been wayyyyyy too low it turns out, only 5% overall and only 6% VS late position steals. My SB fold to LP steal has gotten as high as 82%, with my BB at 62%. I need to double my 3bet numbers there and stop being so exploitable and burning money.
  • Back to creative bluffing, I just had a re-read of my blog where I listed some potential creative stuff, and I haven't been implementing any of it at 500. I think a really cool way to manipulate ranges is with betsizing, and I've probably handicapped myself by being too wedded to not cbetting in certain spots. I should be 'not cbetting' in a spot where it's hard to see a way to win the pot when called or raised, but otherwise there's gonna be times where cbetting gets the range and turn PSR exactly where I want it. An example is 4bet pots where we bet small to then threaten the whole stack on the turn with a PSR leverage bet.
  • Raise flop and XR flop were both way too low at 10%... this is maybe fine, but again just shows I had no creative weapons in my locker with which to properly attack 2-5. Seems to me like I was probably scared money, and I think I was aware of this at times in 3bet pots where I wanted to make some huge bluffs but excused myself with thoughts like 'nah, keep it simple'.
Other stuff: I have loads of poker energy right now so I'm going to put that to good use. More blogs, more analysis, more creative ways of doing things. I'll also make a video series on Ivey, I'm thinking something along the lines of videos where I, for example, cbet 0%, or 3bet 0% whilst talking about the importance of playing 'differently' from your opponent. If this seems like giving too much away, I needn't worry as no-one watches them anyway :-)

I also want to start watching more videos, just to feed into my instinct and have a better feel for how the poker population at large is thinking.

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