Playing OK, No Results, One Big Leak

This blog shows why twitter is better than blogging, it's all summed up in the title! But anyway, yeah I've been trying my best without much monetary reward. Funnily, since I said I'm not making any more drastic changes to my game I've found it 20x easier not to check cashier. Went a whole week before Friday, at which point I'd promised myself I could have a look. Suspicions of no $ to speak of where confirmed, although I ran a good chunk below $EV blah blah blah.

I think I've let a big leak sneak it's way in. Bit of a simple one, but I'm playing way too much OOP. Most commonly, flatting the blinds with a button cold caller, or as the cold caller with a hand like 87s VS mp.

Similarly, PF to 3bets OOP with an equity edge I just need to shovel money in. Looking through my hands I have way way too many spots flatting QQ OOP and getting into a ton of trouble. I've also let fundamentally bad stuff sneak in like cbetting OOP no equity and check raising turns, and basically it can't really hurt me right now to just refuse to play OOP.

Usually when I address this leak then I start to let the odd thing creep back in, and there is of course some room for it, but in general I should really try to stick being the tightest player at the table OOP and biggest monkey IP.

I made a vid recently, thanks everyone for your thoughts really appreciated them. 3 of you had a look, if any of you want to read each other's thoughts then let me know.

BR wise with life expenses I'm back to 200nl for a while. Plan for the next 5 days is to try and get some consistency with regard performance and hit the ground running for April. March is officially designated a train wreck I think............

dan

A Realisation

(Yes, another one).

Looking at the last several months holistically and indeed longer, a pattern emerges.

1) I lose a few sessions

2) I make wild swinging changes to my game as detailed in this blog

3) EITHER, I continue to lose (proceed to 2)

OR

I start to win (proceed to 4)

4) I win some more for an indeterminate time

5) Proceed to 1

Basically what I'm saying is that 2 years as professional has apparently not hardened myself to variance, at all! I'll win for a while, then lose a few sessions, then change up, IF I win the next session I'm convinced everything is fixed, IF I don't win the next few sessions then I change up again.

It's a perpetual cycle of instability. I attach wayyy too much importance to short term cycles both with good results and bad. I never settle or proceed down a consistent path to improvement. Instead I agonise, lose confidence, spew, re-adjust, wildly re-re-adjust and eventually wind back to same old Break Even Dan.

So instead, let's look at some facts which I believe to be true.

I know how to play poker, at least in a theoretical sense.

I previously have had good results when confident.

I struggle most with confidence and application (clearly very linked).

Basically, I'm done with complete re-tunes of my game. I'm happy with how I play. When on my A game I think I soul read hands and intentions well enough to win all the money. What I need to do, is just chill the fuck out, concentrate on doing my best and applying what my instincts are telling me to do, and I'll do OK.

StodgyKen has at times in the past shown me some graphs. He's been well up for the month, then back down at zero. He says stuff like 'but I know Im playing well so I just gotta keep playing'. At times I've thought `bit complacent aren't we, dude look at your last 6k hands`.

So a way of looking at this stuff, a way that I actually saw as a strength in me, is actually a huge weakness. Dodgeball is bang on the money, and the more I think about the more I hate even the thought of looking or caring about short term results. I don't want to care how much I made today, this week, or even this month. That would be easier if I were much more financially secure, but still it's a mindset I have to start having ASAP.

This has all been said before of course, none of the above is revolutionary. But I think it applies more to me than others because of the cycle of doom I already laid out.

So I'm going to blog more, and analyse hands more, and analyse regs more, but mainly I just have to relax, play a lot, do my best, trust my instincts, and make occasional small technical adjustments as and when I think they're required.

Just to finish on a small technical note that Samo said in his latest vid. Again, not revolutionary but a really good rule of thumb if you (like me) seem to get TT VS JJ in a lot. Basically, don't look to get a hand in PF if you can't imagine dominating any of your opponent's playback at range.

So, OTB with AK, we raise, get 3bet, we can 4bet as this dude is likely to reship AQ.

We raise UTG with AK, BTN 3bets. Just flat!

This is the most potent example for me though. We raise TT otb, BB 3bets. We don't have a crazy dynamic, just a typical reg V reg one. We have no read he 3bet/5bets light. Don't 4bet call the TT!!!!!!!!

Is all.

Dan

Supernova

I made Supernova last night. It was sickly sweet coming off the back of a $4.5k losing day, but whatever. I was stopped by several people on my way to the shops this morning, all wanting to know 'do you feel any different?'. I replied that it's going to take a lot of fucking +1 FPP multipliers to compensate for completely forgetting how to play poker again. Most shuffled away, awkwardly.

This blog really tilted me the other day, so I won't talk about it much. I do like his idea of trying to have a positive red line though. Mine has completely plummeted, and in the past this has been a sure fire sign of not playing well. I'm sure I'm missing up a ton of bluff spots, folding too much, and generally playing the opposite of good situational poker.

I want my graph to look like this again! This was only September 2010. I had general rules about not folding in big pots, and adding equal weight to not allowing big pots to build unless I had a plan for winning them. Coupled with my recent improvements and epiphanies, I think this has to be a good gameplan right now. I'm going to drop to 200nl and get a decent sample though........

So we'll see! I just booked my Vegas house. Only 2 bedrooms (sleeps 8), but has pool and walking distance to Rio. Anyone want to stay on any dates 1st June-1st July is welcome, I intend to grind live cash a lot and get very good at it.

Dan

Good Advice

I gave this advice to Noel ~ 2 years ago. I need to take some of it!

Hi Noel,


So... bobbo's book forms the basis of my game, and for me the main points to come out of it involved barreling spots where no other reg seems to (ie you have 67 on 2410r, you cbet, turn is another 2- regs never barrel this but it is in fact a MUST barrel)... on top of this the concept of avoiding reverse equity situations like the plaque.... ie you call a raise with 55 in the bb vs a good aggro reg, flop is 267 "hmm I'm ahead of his cbetting range, I call". then turn is a 10 "hmm I know he's barreling this, I call again" river J "hmm I dunno, fold". So so much money is lost in these spots when you can easily predict the way the hand is going to play out on the flop, you're not seeing showdown cheaply in a million years and my standard is to fold flop here..... RE situations come up all the time and if I posted some of the flop folds OOP vs aggro regs on 2p2 or something I would surely get flamed to death.

I also bet the river lots and lots these days. A cbet flop, check turn (apparently giving up) then bluffing river is usually considered bad, but in fact regs always fold to this line (one of those so bad its good spots). I guess I turn made hands into bluffs on the river very often too.

Oh and I love love mixing up lines vs *good* regs, 'cos they all handread exactly the same and a simple flop check raise as opposed to a cbet, or a call with a set on a drawy board (assuming small PSR) just upsets their heads, and when confused they pay off really light.

I also never autopilot (re the boywonder thread) and only 4 table and concentrate fully on gameflow with the regs at all the tables.... thats it I think!

dan


Where to start. I don't wanna overdo the self hatred. In any case I don't think it'd be possible to overdo the self hatred right now. I have a zillion current issues that are fucking everything up. In no particular order.

Getting owned every hand by a hardcore of about 3 regs. Ericaontilt, Scheff, and Sundalyonly all share the annoying traits of never folding, always having the nuts, and winning every pot VS me. These guys obviously have my default game worked out, and I need to start getting much more creative on all streets.

Playing retardedly bad VS the mass population of mediocre regs. I've started spewing VS the spewers argggghhhhhhh.

Not listening to my instincts enough WR folds.

Autopiloting.

Acting too quickly in big pots. I need to really slow down with bluffs and value and really think about stuff.

Reverse equity. I need to make earlier folds.

Flatting the blinds too much.



I'm making a video now. That always helps.

dan

400nl Annihalation

The title sums it up. $6600 dropped there in around as many hands. Tilt has resurfaced and played a part, lack of physical fitness is again having an impact, and the sessions have been absolutely littered with technical mistakes.

Tilt and physical fitness I've taken care of today and I won't bore people with the details. It's so important to keep on top of both though, it only takes the tiniest amount of complacency for both to rear their heads and send me spiralling out of control.

I'm lacking a general gameplan at 400nl, and not being aware enough of recent obvious leaks that've crept in. For some reason, I feel only by writing about them here do I begin to cure them.

PF Spew - This has been huge. It just always creeps in after a while of not paying it too much attention. I guess I'll come up with a few HH examples of each point.

http://weaktight.com/3338554 - helloooooooooooo Dan???????!!!!!!!! Risk Reward??? Remember those two fucking words. 100bbs to win 10? Oh his 3betting range is wide? That's ok then....... ITS FUCKING NOT OK. His CALLING range crushes you, and he HAS IT way more often than he needs to in order to make a nice easy 100bbs decision while sometimes you pick up TEN.

http://weaktight.com/3338565 - same as above, you moronic backwards clownface.

http://weaktight.com/3338561 - you were tilted? Fold PF in this position with your recent history. Don't check jam with this risk reward. Don't play while tilted. If you must 3bet, fold to the 4bet. If you must flat the 4bet, CC the flop and decide turn and river. Basically just fall under a fucking bus before you do anything like this ever again.

Trust your instincts - No, really. Look, you don't do this thing to justify it to anyone else. There's no-one watching, no-one you have to look good in front of. Its absolutely no fucking good telling yourself that the call 'cant be terrible' when you know in your mind full fucking well that is indeed that. Stop being a station, make those big folds when your brain, sub consciously processing a myriad of information that your conscious brain is only a little bit aware of, comes back with a clear fucking answer that is FOLD.

http://weaktight.com/3338574 - I can forgive calling turn, as you were a little unsure. River is a stuck $3k call though, and by making it you reduce yourself to becoming that degenerate tosser loser that all your family think you are anyway.

http://weaktight.com/3338577 - ya ya ya. You can justify this all day in a forum. No one reading this even thinks it's that bad, good even. But you were there, you knew the villain, and you knew you were crushed on the turn. You knew. Dickhead.

http://weaktight.com/3338579 - Yes his line is bizarre, yes PF flop and turn are fine. But he gave away the strength of his hand on the river. You just knew, you were beat, absolutely stone cold factually beat.

Ok I'm done with the heavy berate-age, but you get the picture. There's a couple of other things I need to adjust at 400nl VS 200nl.....

PF Looseage- There's definitely much better regs here than at 200nl. They keep flatting your 86s utg raises, and 3betting them, and floating flops. I don't want to say tighten up as a general rule, but with those decent regs on your left, and with your current image, fold those unplayable hands. Oh and cbet less OOP too.

That extra level, and player studying- I'm definitely just getting pure owned in some spots that I wasn't at 200nl. In a lot of cases, I just need to go that extra level. Not in all cases though, but to identify those players where I have to step up my game I need to get back in the habit of reviewing all marked hands immediately post session.

Example of the above http://weaktight.com/3338592 - We'll call this guy Mr 400nl, and compare how he'd play the hand compared to Mr 200nl. VS Mr 200nl, I think he's just barrelling this card as a bluff because he sees it as an overcard to my PPs and doesn't see the vast majority of my range as floated Ax, which he really should. I also think he's betting all TT-KK again, because, like what else can you do? When Mr 400nl bets this card, I should be done with my hand as he's able to better read my range. Then on the river, I think Mr 200nl always just bets his Ax again, allowing me to fold, while giving up his hands worse than Ax and check folding a ton of TT-KK types.

So I need to stop getting owned in the above spots basically.

I'm going to make a 400nl video now. I always play better when I do, and hopefully someone (you know who you are) might watch it and correct some stuff or some of my assumptions.

Session Goals

• No PF spew
• Be aware of risk reward!
• Trust instincts, especially in the area of big folds and medium folds and folds in general.
• Look at player left to act, and tighten up PF accordingly.
• Review session hands properly and make informed notes.

Dan

Update and current thoughts..........

Hello ! I haven't blogged in a while, 'cos obviously I only blog when I'm losing and losing heavily, and of late things have been fine.

I managed to sneak into 5 figures for Feb with a late semi heater. I call it a semi heater because I changed a ton of stuff at the start of the upswing and I just overall felt much happier in how I was playing. I'll just outline some of the small and some of the drastic changes in overall gameplan I made........

4betting: I've scrapped the idea of not EVER doing it. Sorry Struiks for not getting back to you on your questions but I was basically undecided myself after a bit of gametime. The reason I'm 4betting again is that I've realised that there are a decent number of factors that go into having a high success % in doing it........

So, when I'd decided that it was basically a zero sum game, I was wrong. In basically all spots where we face a 3bet we can draw on timing, stacksize, position, inferred reads (polarised 3betting range etc), gameflow, stats (deliberately last) to accurately gauge whether villain will fold to a 4bet bluff or not. I left out of that list the level of the player, how they perceive you as a player, and what kind of player they are (without delving into animal types again, I'll list some: '12 tabling stats robot', 'alpha male whale', 'insecure monkey see monkey do' etc).

PF Looseness: Probably the biggest change in of itself. This next sentence is important. Poker, first and foremost, is about stealing the blinds! I started by looking at HEM, 'did raise' by position. Then I filtered for junk. I've always done well open raising from all positions, including highly speculative hands..............

So by virtue of the average 200nl Stars reg's inability to adjust, I'm back playing 29/27. Playing 12 tables, I'm almost on autopilot until the turn actually. My rinse/repeat is basically: raise PF, cbet flop, soul read turn and river. The soul reading comes back to what I've been saying about playing by instinct, which is still as important as ever IMO.

Don't Call: A simplistic way to look at it, but my HEM lifetime bb/100 for 3betting stuff, including junk, from all positions is exceedingly high. For flatting stuff, it is extremely meh. Unless OTB and definitely no light squeezers behind, I've just been 3betting or folding VS open raises. This means that if gameflow/ stacks/ player doesn't allow a 3bet with KQo in the CO, and I'm facing an UTG+1 raise, then I have to fold it. The same applies in the blinds.

I was up $3k this month at 200nl, but complacency had to set in eventually and I've been booted back down to $1.4k. I need a shot in the arm, and so I've decided to just move to 400nl. Initially less tables, but double the stakes will get me properly focussed again........

Is all!

dan