A Realisation

(Yes, another one).

Looking at the last several months holistically and indeed longer, a pattern emerges.

1) I lose a few sessions

2) I make wild swinging changes to my game as detailed in this blog

3) EITHER, I continue to lose (proceed to 2)

OR

I start to win (proceed to 4)

4) I win some more for an indeterminate time

5) Proceed to 1

Basically what I'm saying is that 2 years as professional has apparently not hardened myself to variance, at all! I'll win for a while, then lose a few sessions, then change up, IF I win the next session I'm convinced everything is fixed, IF I don't win the next few sessions then I change up again.

It's a perpetual cycle of instability. I attach wayyy too much importance to short term cycles both with good results and bad. I never settle or proceed down a consistent path to improvement. Instead I agonise, lose confidence, spew, re-adjust, wildly re-re-adjust and eventually wind back to same old Break Even Dan.

So instead, let's look at some facts which I believe to be true.

I know how to play poker, at least in a theoretical sense.

I previously have had good results when confident.

I struggle most with confidence and application (clearly very linked).

Basically, I'm done with complete re-tunes of my game. I'm happy with how I play. When on my A game I think I soul read hands and intentions well enough to win all the money. What I need to do, is just chill the fuck out, concentrate on doing my best and applying what my instincts are telling me to do, and I'll do OK.

StodgyKen has at times in the past shown me some graphs. He's been well up for the month, then back down at zero. He says stuff like 'but I know Im playing well so I just gotta keep playing'. At times I've thought `bit complacent aren't we, dude look at your last 6k hands`.

So a way of looking at this stuff, a way that I actually saw as a strength in me, is actually a huge weakness. Dodgeball is bang on the money, and the more I think about the more I hate even the thought of looking or caring about short term results. I don't want to care how much I made today, this week, or even this month. That would be easier if I were much more financially secure, but still it's a mindset I have to start having ASAP.

This has all been said before of course, none of the above is revolutionary. But I think it applies more to me than others because of the cycle of doom I already laid out.

So I'm going to blog more, and analyse hands more, and analyse regs more, but mainly I just have to relax, play a lot, do my best, trust my instincts, and make occasional small technical adjustments as and when I think they're required.

Just to finish on a small technical note that Samo said in his latest vid. Again, not revolutionary but a really good rule of thumb if you (like me) seem to get TT VS JJ in a lot. Basically, don't look to get a hand in PF if you can't imagine dominating any of your opponent's playback at range.

So, OTB with AK, we raise, get 3bet, we can 4bet as this dude is likely to reship AQ.

We raise UTG with AK, BTN 3bets. Just flat!

This is the most potent example for me though. We raise TT otb, BB 3bets. We don't have a crazy dynamic, just a typical reg V reg one. We have no read he 3bet/5bets light. Don't 4bet call the TT!!!!!!!!

Is all.

Dan