Return to 400nl

I've decided to drag my meagre $11k roll to 400nl. Started well on Monday, up $1800. Tuesday, down $1800.

On the downer, I definitely played a little bad and also ran bad. I think there is a decent amount more PF aggression than 200nl, and I got sucked into fighting fire with fire a little bit. I credit a large part of my 200nl success to not overcooking PF at all. I flat QQ and AK in most spots to 3bets, I 4bet bluff rarely and in decent spots, and my answer to lunatic 3bettors is to tighten up PF ranges.

So, probably my (of late) 34/26 style isn't going to transition to 400nl too well. It's important that this adjusts organically though rather than as a function of me saying at the start of the session 'time to tighten up'. I just need to be more aware of the players to act behind me before I make any PF raise. There is hardly any part of my game that autopilots any more, but for the last month or so PF raises at 200nl I just feel like I can open a ton, so time to sort that out.

So I'm happy overall. Rungood please.

Thoughts/ update

Since I mainly blog when I'm getting beat I thought I'd throw in a random update and some thoughts. Still winning well...... I now have a 24k hand sample since I resume 4 tabling with my new approach, and results are decent. I know some stat geeks who read this are interested in stats and stuff so thought I'd post em:

My day to day vip, pfr and 3bet are kind of funny though. I never feel like I change much, but looking at the end of each day I range from having played 22/18 to 36/32. Trend is definitely getting looser and looser though. If anyone would like to comment on any stats that seem out of the ordinary then feel welcome.

I got sorted out with a 60% rb deal on iPoker and was planning to move. The more poker sob stories I read though, the more I just feel safe with Stars. Stars has had it's disaster and came out the other side still completely solvent. You also know that if any site is going to give a fuck about bots, it's going to be Stars, a 'proper' company. Overall I just feel much happier here I think .......so I'm probably staying put for a while.

So, managed to scrape my bankroll up to $12k again. $2k withdrawl for next month's living leaves me with $10k. Kinda torn whether to carry on 200nl this month, or just take the plunge and hit 400nl. Hmm, seems like I put stuff like this off. Overall I feel not so challenged at 200nl right now, but any sort of 2-4 downswing is gonna kill me atm so maybe I'll wait and see how the month ends up panning out at 200nl then make the switch.

That's it really.

Doing OK, Hands

I'm still updating the 100k hand challenge thing on the right. This includes some 6tabling hands though prior to my complete turnaround in poker philosophy. Since 4 tabling with this new philosophy I've been running hot (well, must be!) and my hourly is pretty decent.

This graph is ever hand since I got Pawel to sweat one of my sessions and talk me through the dos and don'ts of getting reads on every tiny nuance of a regs game and then how exactly to exploit them. From turn leads OOP dry board as caller, to betsizing 3bet pots wet boards, to polarised/ non polarised cbetting, to loads of other generalised tendecies that we can infer and then confirm and then exploit.

I've put in place the stoploss of $350-$400. Working good so far, well I only had one session so far where I hit it. Hit it after 10 minutes, 2 big suckouts so that was a real test of my strength to act on it, but quit I did and it's infinitely more likely that it would've turned into a $2k losing session than a $2k winning one from that point onwards.

Played some cool hands along the way:


This is my favourite. Combination of reads, winning reg but spazzy, very high raise donk bet stat (40%), 65% BTN open. So I basically played it to rep a straight draw from the flop onwards with plans of  never folding. Important to lead the river, as I don't think he'd credit me with just CC an oesd on turn and then check river, while I couldn't cr turn to rep straight draw either really as blows out a lot of stuff. I snapped the river as I do with most hero calls.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	Hielko	$210.70
CO	jerson2011	$249.80
BTN	Coole Rick	$268.05
SB	grogheadflow	$258
BB	guidosuller2	$92.80

• Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is SB
• 

2 folds, Coole Rick raises to $6, grogheadflow calls $5, 1 fold

• Flop ($14, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow bets $9, Coole Rick raises to $24, grogheadflow calls $15

• Turn ($62, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow checks, Coole Rick bets $38, grogheadflow calls $38

• River ($138, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow bets $38, Coole Rick goes all-in $200.05, grogheadflow calls $152

• Final Pot: $528.05

• Coole Rick shows
• 

• grogheadflow shows
• 

• grogheadflow wins $516 (net +$258)
• Coole Rick collects $10.05 (net -$258)

This one is all about imbalances in betting strategy. This guy previously pot controlled AJ on turn in a similar spot, and with high stab flop and barrel number combined with a 18% BTN flat range was decent to call down.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	INGA1964	$203
UTG+1	arebew	$200
CO	grogheadflow	$207.35
BTN	Pokermoney07	$200
SB	DeWinterY	$253
BB	Oord	$728.55

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

2 folds, grogheadflow raises to $6, Pokermoney07 calls $6, 2 folds

• Flop ($15, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow checks, Pokermoney07 bets $8, grogheadflow calls $8

• Turn ($31, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow checks, Pokermoney07 bets $17, grogheadflow calls $17

• River ($65, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow checks, Pokermoney07 bets $48, grogheadflow calls $48

• Final Pot: $161

• grogheadflow shows
• 

• Pokermoney07 shows
• 

• grogheadflow wins $159 (net +$80)
• Pokermoney07 lost $79

 

Another spewy type of player, but one whom I felt I could get to fold QJ and maybe KQ by the river. He never has AQ or KK+ as flatter was a decent size fish. Villain has low fold to cbet flop and turn, hence decision to triple (shoving the river). Then he raised the turn and I'm like weeeee no J, 9or T please ! This probably the best river card to call down on actually. Very next hand on another table he 3bets/5bets A9 into my AK TILT.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	grogheadflow	$210.70
UTG+1	YaDaDaMeeN21	$299.20
CO	TheDonDoaln	$88.85
BTN	aXuLe	$253.05
SB	ReSpEcTAiGhT	$81
BB	Fivez	$203

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is UTG
• 

grogheadflow raises to $6, 1 fold, TheDonDoaln calls $6, aXuLe calls $6, 2 folds

• Flop ($21, 3 players)
• 

grogheadflow bets $15, TheDonDoaln folds, aXuLe calls $15

• Turn ($51, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow bets $38, aXuLe raises to $86, grogheadflow calls $48

• River ($223, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow checks, aXuLe bets $146.05, grogheadflow calls $103.70

• Final Pot: $472.75

• grogheadflow shows
• 

• aXuLe shows
• 

• grogheadflow wins $428.40 (net +$217.70)
• aXuLe collects $42.35 (net -$210.70)
• TheDonDoaln lost $6

One that failed but also kinda didn't. Had to re-appraise my opinion of the player after this hand. Knew he was bad but not THAT bad.

$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 4 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

CO	profi76	$1,098.45
BTN	le_marc08	$527.85
SB	grogheadflow	$353.80
BB	ndjoh	$498.75

• Pre-Flop ($4.60, 4 players)Hero is SB
• 

1 fold, le_marc08 raises to $6, grogheadflow raises to $22, 1 fold, le_marc08 calls $16

• Flop ($47.60, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow bets $26, le_marc08 calls $26

• Turn ($99.60, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow bets $62, le_marc08 raises to $148, grogheadflow calls $86

• River ($395.60, 2 players)
• 

grogheadflow checks, le_marc08 bets $331.45, grogheadflow calls $157.40

• Final Pot: $884.45

• le_marc08 shows
• 

• grogheadflow shows
• 

• le_marc08 wins $882.45 (net +$354.60)
• grogheadflow lost $353.80

I'm still life broke so just have to keep on it, hopefully keep this up..........

A leak

I'm playing a really low variance style at the moment, getting it in preflop hardly ever and instead looking to exploit people in the small and medium sized pots. QQ, JJ, AK, I'm usually flatting to 3bets both in and out of position. At least, this is the plan when I'm playing well.

I have a theory that I will check some time when I can be bothered. Say I win on average 2/3 sessions. I win an average of $300 per winning session, lose an average of $300. After 300 days of 3 sessions per day, I should be on $90k for the year. I'm on less than half that.

The reason, I'm sure, is the MASSIVE blowout sessions. Like yesterday, 3 hours played and $1600 dropped at 1-2. They don't equal out, cos I actually have a sort of winning stop loss where I know I start to play bad when I'm up say $600 (experimenting, etc), and quit. Clearly I need one going the other way.

So, this month will go ok if I avoid these blowouts. For the rest of the month, 2BI stoploss per session. In reality this is more of a 1.5bi stoploss as I don't want to get stacked at 2BI and lose 3BI. Yeh it's going to be frustrating sometimes, yes I'm going to have position on fish, and yes I can convince myself I'm playing well, but overall this is easily going to save (make) me a lot of money.

20k Hand Review

So, essentially breakeven after 20k hands. Frustrating, because it's 20k hands of more or less my A game, surrounded by fish, and without any sense of having run bad. Immediate leaks that spring to mind looking at the stats are playing pretty loose from UTG, and playing too little and winning too little from the CO. I'm going to up my CO unopened raise a ton, up to like 35%, but resist the urge to lower my UTG vpip. Partly because this sample suggests I'm doing ok, and party because I don't think it's being expoited and I think I'm picking decent spots.......

In terms of other postflop stuff, I feel like I could cbet flop a decent amount more as a default. 59% should probably be more like 69%. I'm also starting to have a mammoth dislike of checking turns IP in general. It means you can't value bet the river (faceup hand, could be CR bluffed easily, bad for balancing bluffs) and bluffs also have less credibility and less power. Much easier to peel the river with 2nd pair ending the action than it is facing a decent sized turn bet with the implied threat of having the river shoved down their necks too.

I've always had this problem with being more aggressive IP than OOP, as I've felt that people simply have weaker ranges IP than they do OOP. What I'm realising now though is that OOP, people are simply really unbalanced with stronger hands. IP they get flatted a lot, OOP nearly always CRd. This leaves a lot of crazily weak turn and river ranges when people have flatted OOP.

Moral of the above story is that for the next 20k hands or so I'm going to become a bit of an animal IP and see how it goes. I have a strong feeling that on say J62 T, 99 finds a fold from most regs. This seems a little obvious reading it back. A better example is JT on QT6. On a 6 turn, it's getting folded I reckon. If not, it's getting folded on the river along with a bunch of Qs. So yeah, I'll go to town IP and if I see any proper out of line call downs I'll take a note and re-adjust.

In a general sense, I need to remember to manipulate people using betsizing a lot more. Weaker betsizing on earlier streets leaves weaker ranges later on that can't stand big turn barrels.

Finishing on a postive note, flatting wider is almost working.  I had a really bad start as I've said, but filtering for all the hands I wouldn't previously have flatted, I'm down $1300. 185 instances, so would've lost $1100 had I folded, so actually down $200. I'm very confident this will turn around though in the next 20k hands or so.

Ok in summary !

Be an animal IP.
Avoid RE like the plague.
Raise CO more.
More attention to detail, betsizing etc ...........

Dan