Turns Out.........

That that session wasn't in November, in HEM or PTR, so my $1k below EV $500 loss counts for nothing (yes I'm having one last 'tell my results' blowout).

In terms of performance though, played exceptionally well throughout, with the exception of one hand.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	MEGA_Shark123	$400
CO	zcooke	$863.50
BTN	Hero	$568.05
SB	g_host_8686	$144
BB	prrrmiaow	$400

• Pre-Flop ($6, 5 players)Hero is BTN
• 

2 folds, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, prrrmiaow raises to $40, Hero calls $30

• Flop ($82, 2 players)
• 

prrrmiaow bets $52, Hero calls $52

• Turn ($186, 2 players)
• 

prrrmiaow bets $116, Hero goes all-in $476.05, prrrmiaow calls $192

• River ($970.05, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $970.05

• Hero shows
• 

• prrrmiaow shows
• 

• prrrmiaow wins $799 (net +$399)
• Hero collects $168.05 (net -$400.00)

Apparently villain is Grimstarr (he of graph fame). PF he has normal type stats, but in terms of how I pin him he's never bluffing this turn in a thousand zillion years. He raises and CFs most flops, 3bets and gives up very often, and finds it tough to bet for value.

So, all my effort in pinning and understanding the regs comes to nothing when I can't apply it in a thin thin spot like this. Very sad at myself for this.

Other than that, very happy. Well up in small pots, some decent bluff catches and a veriety of random flop and turn squeeze type moves. So, $500 loss, but 8/10 in terms of performance.

Now that's the last time results get mentioned until 4 weeks on Tuesday.........

So November begins in....... 7 minutes. Time to get a drink then play the first session before bed.

dan

Current Thoughts

After winning a lot of money yesterday, I've lost a similar amount of it today. At this point I feel like I should say something in Latin or French or something to remark wistfully on the fickle nature of it all. I want to say ce sera sera, but I don't think that's right.

Easy come easy go then.

I'm ditching the running graphs. They are contributing to me making decisions for the wrong reasons.

It's half past midnight right now, which means it's NOVEMBER. Last month ended up being another exercise in getting stuck $9k in the first few days at 400nl, then spending the next 29 days grinding it all back 200nl. $1k in total cash profit in the end.

So, in a moment I can start this month. Here's my broad outline plan for success this month:

6 tables! Jesus I am such a broken record at times. For the first time though I think I've been able to properly quantify exactly why > 6 are such a bad idea for me. Basically, I feel my brain power is like butter. If you spread butter over 9 slices, it'll still be bread and butter, and chances are that ........ ok I'm quitting this analogy it's terrible!

The jist is that for the most part I can play 6 and 9 tables to the same degree of ability, I can raise, cbet, 3bet, yada yada. In the rare spots where higher level thinking is required though my brain goes missing when 9 tables are up. The accumulation of these spots, and the greater variance they bring in fucking them up is killing me. I've already propped myself in my Leggo blog that I can't play more than 6 tables or I pay out $750 to randoms.

Focus on performance, not results. Yeah yeah, we've all heard this one. Quit with the cliches Dan, we all know not to be results oriented, it's harder than it seems though, yada yada. I think that this is absolutely vital though, and so I'm putting in steps to help. First of all, I will NOT discuss my running results with anyone at any point this month, no blogging about it, nothing. If Ian should PM me, or say Chris should pop up on my Skype and ask, I'll tell him to go fuck his pseudo Irish self (nothing personal).

What I will do though is blog constantly about how I've been playing, with the emphasis utterly on performance and nothing else. Grades are coming back probably.

Technical Goals. These will obviously change throughout the month, but being aware of them and taking care of them is really important. At the moment, my current big leak is those pots where I invest 100bbs. Simply, I'm getting all that money in waaaay too light. There's definitely some monkey see monkey do involved on FTP (the 3bet/5bets on there are extremely lol, random example: http://weaktight.com/2856146). In so many spots they are literally giving me money, and currently I adjust by GIVING them it back.

So there's a few aspects to that particular technical goal. The first is the PF stuff.... the 4bet jams with 55 have to stop, as does 4bet calling AQ or 3bet/5betting it without a sick sick reason. How to adjust to lots of 3betting then? Open less if it's that bad, simple as.

The second aspect is in making spazzy call downs with not enough reasons for doing so. In particular, I'm getting owned in spots where villain takes an obvious bluffy line, such as checking the turn IP in a 3bet pot on KKx Q x deep, then raising the turn and showing up with KQ. It comes back to what I was saying another time, basically that these days bluffy lines are always value, but by all means call down 3 streets to a normal looking bet bet bet line if you have a decent idea of his range street by street.

On the whole though, there's just tons of spots lately where I could fold for 100bbs, and decide not to do so. JT oop on a T hi board in a 3bet pot when a K turns should not for example be an automatic stackoff as at present.

However it's not just a case of saying look fold for 1 PSR on the river, I have to once again look at how I get in those spots in the first place, take it back a step and ask what can I do to avoid them.

All in all, losing less in the 200bb pots will have some negative impact on my smaller pot winrate, but clearly it's necessary.

So session 1 review to follow, massive emphasis on a) performance, b) being extremely careful about putting in 100bbs for postflop value, or PF bluffs. Win those 200bb pots!

dan

PS: Oh I forgot to add, also necessary to success is spending lots of time analysing spots, talking poker, sweats etc. So Ian if you want a free sweat or two I'm up for that, pay me when you make your first million, Chris I'll watch you play or visa versa, and Dodgy the same, you'd all be doing me a favour.

Short Term Success

Won $2100 that last session. Every bluff came off (and there were many) while I made some big bluff catches and eked out some good value from my strong hands.

http://weaktight.com/2852686 - CC AK to rep mid PPs...... just to reiterate this is good because you get a ton of respect on low boards, while on A and K hi boards they try to barrel you off it. Here I'm doing my best to rep TT, calling flop, quick check turn, then time raise on river.

http://weaktight.com/2852688 - fish with sick betsizing tells

http://weaktight.com/2852696 - obv I keep running good as per

http://weaktight.com/2852700 - standardish bluff

Was definitely my A game throughout though, really focussed and that's what I need to keep up going forward.......

400nl Session II

Lost $400. Three bluffs I thought were ok-ish snapped off, which might be an early sign that my reputation still precedes me........ :(

First though a value hand: http://weaktight.com/2852275

I'm pretty sure this is more of a PLO concept than an NL one, but I think with a 'nutted', but fragile value hand on the flop the better line is to call flop, then look to commit on the turn depending on the card. Other than diamonds and any 8, the Q is the worst card for my hand. So not quite happy with this, I'm sure some would get away on the turn even, but overall it's a 7/10.

Failed Bluffs:

http://weaktight.com/2852283 - Um, 6/10. He must have a fucking read to make this call but whatever.

http://weaktight.com/2852284 - I really think my entire range should bet here. I really think that VS an average 400nl reg the dude should fold AQ here. But he didn't so my bad and WP.

http://weaktight.com/2852286 - villain is nitty. I think KJ folds, as do all missed fdraws, AQ, etc.

River spots where I have no clue:

http://weaktight.com/2852287

So all in all, I didn't ship 100bbs in too light this session. I didn't win any 100bb stacks myself, and I was happy with all the small pots I managed to pick up. Some food for thought with the lack of respect I'm getting, but it's too early days yet and I need to play more hands.

Session 3 coming up.....

FTP 400nl First Session Back

I won $100, but sucked out in an $800 pot. I don't really know what I think about it:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	prrrmiaow	$502
UTG+1	TakeUrCheese	$417
CO	imojo	$515.10
BTN	Hero	$430.70
SB	mugs33	$349.70
BB	MattTheCat5	$515.60

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is BTN
• 

prrrmiaow raises to $12, TakeUrCheese calls $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, mugs33 raises to $40, MattTheCat5 calls $36, prrrmiaow folds, TakeUrCheese calls $28, Hero calls $28

• Flop ($172, 4 players)
• 

mugs33 bets $60, 2 folds, Hero calls $60

• Turn ($292, 2 players)
• 

mugs33 bets $249.70, Hero calls $249.70

• River ($791.40, 2 players)
• 

• Final Pot: $791.40

• Hero shows
• 

• mugs33 shows
• 

• Hero wins $788.40 (net +$438.70)
• TakeUrCheese lost $40
• mugs33 lost $349.70
• MattTheCat5 lost $40
• prrrmiaow lost $12

Obviously on the face of it it looks bad, but the guy was a massive fish, 56/42/8. I just, thought he might be so bad to wind up with junk here. Hmm, I think one of current problems is putting in 100bbs and being wrong too often. Like, I don't mind putting in money as a decent bluff, or decent value, but too often I'm bluff catching or betting too light for value. River spots OOP in particular when the board changes I have problems with, ie you bet QQ on Jxx then the river brings a flush.

But not too bad overall, this session though I'm going to keep applying a lot of pressure, but be prepared to take my foot off the gas in certain spots with marginal holdings.....

Time to MTFU

I think I'm ready to man up and play FT 400nl. My results at 200nl on FT haven't been stellar if you look at the EV line, but (and I know everyone says this), I've literally given away about $2k through experimenting, ridic spaz plays, not paying enough attention, playing longer than 55 minutes, etc.

There's a chance I might lose motivation if I don't step up soon, so I've decided that's what I'm doing.

It needs doing properly though.......

Ok so until at least the first 10k hands I'll be 6 tabling. This means a 33% reduction in my 200nl hourly, but then a doubling through the doubling of stakes. Throw in playing much better with 6 tables, mad strict controls on session length, and I hope to do ok.

I don't really have any technical flaws that jump out on me right now. Maybe 3bet/5betting too light actually, I seem to have got away with a lot of those lately.

So I'll be reviewing all my sessions there until I'm in a groove.... if I drop $4k or something I'll drop back to 200nl, but having got my BR back to $17k it's wasted having like 85bis for 200nl when I think my current edge is pretty decent.

So session review to follow........ dan

Application Application Application

Application is the big thing for me right now. All the discussing of the game I'm doing at the moment with Dodgy Ian and Pat is helping immensely, and I can say that there are fewer and fewer SSNL hand history situations on which I do not have a very strong opinion.

Now having a strong opinion in itself doesn't make it right, but as a general rule of thumb if you ask one of your coaches a question, and you get a very vague answer, chances are he doesn't really know. I've been guilty of this myself in the past.

So being sure of yourself is an incredible anti tilt device. Losing 200bbs in a spot where you are absolutely sure you did the correct thing barely even registers to me at the moment. Losing 100bbs in a spot where I was just plain unsure though can drive me round the bend.

But having a ton of theory down pat is one thing, actually applying it in real situations is another. Application is very simply the act of taking what you know, and clicking the button corresponding to that knowledge.

So why is it so fucking difficult?

Reason: other factors cloud your thinking..... Dodgy's watching so you don't want to bore him. You want revenge on the 'lol videomaker' guy. You're stuck, you'r winning, you're break even. You're sure a check raise is cooler than a bet, you don't want your red line to suck, you're curious as to what 100% value hand takes this line for value and so click call, yada yada.

The last session I played had a ton of such spots where I just plain didn't apply my technical judgment. 3bet shoving t7 on 663 in a 3bet pot for example.

What I discovered in the last 15 minutes is that I do fine if I imagine I'm discussing the spot with one of Dodgy or Ian.

I can't use Chris, cos then his response in my imagination is to outline his reasons that my ideas are fucking retarded.

Even though I know what Dodgy looks like, having never met him I find it easier to imagine Ian 'cos then all I have to do is conjure up Karl Pilkington and relate my ideas to the cueball headed one.

So this is my current solution. Think about the hand, then before I click a button tell Karl about it. Longer term though, a real focus on making plays based strictly on my technical thought process is needed.

I'm winning at the moment, obviously running good at all in EV, but I could be up so much more with better APPLICATION.

Getting Crushed When 100bbs Goes In

Ok the last 2 months, 2 graphs. One is 'amount won or lost > 95bbs', the other is 'amount won or lost less than 95bb'

My conclusion? I have a 'deafult of winning poker' style of poker in terms of the small pots. Like, if nothing exciting happens in terms of shoving 100bbs into a pot then I win money.

Lately though (spot the $11k ds on the first graph) I have been getting absolutely annihilated whenever 100bbs goes in. In my final session today, I had 6 such instances, all were losing ones.

http://weaktight.com/2842122 - TT aipf vs j7

http://weaktight.com/2842123 - bluff with 44% equity

http://weaktight.com/2842124 - set over set never folding

http://weaktight.com/2842126 - ak vs aa

http://weaktight.com/2842129 - some would call this thin but WE

http://weaktight.com/2842127 - only definitely terrible one when Nic walked in and I was distracted and by this point tilted

So I think 5/6 above I couldn't do anything. However this rot has set in for a while, and it's clear I need to pay much more attention to these biggest decisions of all. Of course the fact I check shove a lot has something to do with it, but I think I basically need to re-balance slightly in some spots and watch how light the money is going in for value.

I'm about to play a session. I am going to pay particular attention to the times I'm committing all my money, and try to pull back from the brink early if villain is particularly nitty or something. I'm spaz talking really, but I'm getting destroyed right now in these spots and it's happened too often as of late to be reasonless.

dan

A Hand Encompassing 3 Important Things

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	guy9bundes	$290.60
UTG+1	JPizu	$218.10
CO	Hero	$222.45
BTN	DrUPSWING	$212.60
SB	NjDraW	$151.20
BB	yamchae	$841.05

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

1 fold, JPizu raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, 3 folds, JPizu calls $12

• Flop ($39, 2 players)
• 

JPizu checks, Hero checks

• Turn ($39, 2 players)
• 

JPizu bets $20, Hero calls $20

• River ($79, 2 players)
• 

JPizu bets $38, Hero goes all-in $184.45, JPizu calls $142.10

• Final Pot: $443.55

• JPizu shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• Hero wins $440.55 (net +$218.10)
• JPizu lost $218.10

Ok I think this hand is interesting (not just as a cool brag or WE) as it gives examples of 3 different topics I've been thinking about lately, and by committing them to words I might actually remember them and think about them in future.

The first is balance. Now, I'm obviously not an instinctive balancer..... the reason being that I often see the proponents of it as being more interested in discussing abstract theory and seeming clever than they are in making money.

As I've started to think more about it, I've realised that these people are doing the topic of balancing a disservice, as what they should emphasise are the deceptive qualities of balancing, rather than simply the act of balancing for the sake of it.

So in this hand, a thought occurred to me on the flop. The thought was that I'm always giving up this board with my bluffs (ak etc). Not only that, but villain would expect me to give up this board with bluffs. So betting this board 100% for value, and 0% with bluffs is clearly a massive exploitable leak. Clearly a curveball is needed somewhere.

Options: bluff it more? I dislike that heavily as the bluff in a vacuum will definitely be -EV. With any kind of equity, we'd prefer to check and see the turn and maybe run a bluff later in the hand.

So we're left with a flop check with a value hand. Of all the value hands, AA is the best candidate as although there's a fair few 4 straight turns, there are no overcards to come. In terms of deception, this will induce turn bluffs where villain has air and thinks we're always giving up. In terms of losing less VS ~99, this accomplishes that as well. If villain has something like T9, well by checking we get to make a better decision on the turn in the event of a 4 straight turn, etc.

This is but one example, but there are other examples. I don't like to balance for the sake of it where it's perceived that we're balanced anyway, but in those spots where villain perceives one thing, we should do our best to throw in a counter to that perception.

The second thing I wanted to talk about is this: I've heard Daniel Negreanu (bear with me) say plenty of times that in live play, he'll often call on the flop with a wide range, and then try to pick up tells later on in the hand that allow him to make good decisions later on. He was saying that he can't do this online, so he's often left with raising or folding.

I obviously disagree with the last bit, but the 'calling to get reads' is something I think about now all the time. What these reads are, given the lack of physical tells, are ~ 10% timing tells, and 90% betsizing. I can't really stress this enough, but regs at 400nl and below literally try to give away the strength of their hand on multiple streets. They get away with making what they perceive to be the best play in a vacuum because regs are just not observant enough to read enough into their betsizing and exploit it.

So hence, on the river, with this betsizing villain literally sends me a postcard saying 'hey man, weather is nice, I have A8, TT-KK and I'd like to get value please'. So where I was planning to call on a bigger betsize that is more nuts and air, on this betsize I was able to shove.

So the third thing is a mixture of the above. With the amount of rivers I'm currently shoving, I've decided that I need to throw in some different lines with my value hands and start shoving much lighter for value than in times past. For example in the hand below I decide to not bet the turn as this looks insanely strong (and again, can't think of a bluff I would do it with), and instead induce vbets from AJ and AQ to then CRAI the river.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	Hero	$414
CO	le_marc08	$251.30
BTN	yamchae	$200
SB	jballer88	$201
BB	nairoon	$200

• Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is UTG
• 

Hero raises to $7, le_marc08 calls $7, yamchae calls $7, 2 folds

• Flop ($24, 3 players)
• 

Hero bets $11, le_marc08 calls $11, yamchae folds

• Turn ($46, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, le_marc08 bets $31, Hero calls $31

• River ($108, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, le_marc08 bets $65, Hero goes all-in $365, le_marc08 folds

• Final Pot: $538

• Hero wins $535 (net +$121)
• le_marc08 lost $114
• yamchae lost $7

Answering those that would call this super thin brings me onto my last point. Namely, there's a tendency to think the worst of all worlds in poker. So, the same guys who would say AK is too thin for value here, would probably be the same people who call a bluff here retarded, as 'he never folds AQ/AJ to this line repping nothing yada yada'. I discussed this with Dodgy and I ended up calling it Purgatory, that place between Heaven and Hell.

Basically, similar 'grey area' spots come up all the time and I think that we should start committing either way to whether a particular line will a) fold out x% of hands, or b) induce calls from x% of hands. The pessimists often want to have it both ways and talk themselves out of both bluffing and value betting in equal measure. Stop sitting on the fence people!

Dan

Good Day + Hands

Happy with today, 3 very solid sessions, plenty of notes made on regs, I ran bad situationally but obviously good in terms of all in EV, and most of my ram jams worked.

http://weaktight.com/2838920 - ramjam

http://weaktight.com/2838924 - ramjam! (I was overbetting river if he checked btw)

http://weaktight.com/2838926 - funky look like the nuts ramjam

http://weaktight.com/2838930 - sadjam

http://weaktight.com/2838936 - get him off a split ramjam, I had to be almost certain that he didn't have 2 pair+ for this to work obv, but given the turn check only A7s I think is plausible (2 combos) so I don't hate this.

Although I lost yesterday, I totally reserve the right to start my 100k FTP 200nl hands challenge from the start of today. So there.

dan

FTP Seriousness

16:30 ET on a Sunday. Only four 400nl games running on AP.... if I wasn't convinced before of the need to migrate sites then I am now.

So FTP...... I've played a couple of sessions, one good one bad. I got crushed 12 tabling in the short time I did it, the software's just a touch faster I think, but 9 tabling I was able to do pretty comfortably. I say comfortably, but what is not comfortable is the fact I have no reads whatsoever on the reg population.

It's not just about stats, from the years spent on UB I have an instinctive feel for every reg, not only how they play but also how they think, how they perceive poker and how the perceive me.

At the moment on FT, I'm getting the chess board feeling again in a lot of spots. Do I triple this board, or this guy a Marclar in disguise who's going to call down any pair? Should I give this bluff up, or does the guy perceive his edge in poker to derive from the fact that he folds big hands so much more often than others, say in the style of a Dodgyken? (kidding).

So while I'm comfortable 9 tabling, I can't do it and pick up reads and information on the players I face. So sadly for me a period of 6 tabling 200nl is what I gotta do.... sad, but completely necessary for success I think. There's a chance with a lot of regs that the usually neutrality of villain not knowing my game either is lost given my Leggo stuff, which makes it even more important.

I tell you what, it's hard to resist opening an account in Nic's name actually, not that I would, just that I understand those like Townsend who do.

But anyway, if I have enough 200nl success on FT in the next week or so I'll jump straight to 400nl on there given I'm rolled.

First things first though, I'll start the 6 tabling right away and really try to study every hand that I'm not involved in and try to build up some notes and get a feel for the players.

First session review coming up..........

dan

30k 200nl Hands Over, 2 New Challenges

So not great, and most sadly not a great amount of momentum built up any way through the challenge. I aimed for $6k, made ~$4k, but then again poker can be the ultimate bitch at times and at least I didn't drop the same amount.

So I stepped up to 400nl on UB again and just won $1k in fairly standish spots. This hand was nice http://weaktight.com/2833276 on my comeback, but I have to say his line is actually abysmal, he needs to be pot controlling the turn or the river, but then again he must just view me as a massive station and think I'm calling down AQ in this spot.

Speaking of how I'm perceived, I'm not proud of this hand in a vacuum: http://weaktight.com/2833281 , but villain was the type to look for reasons to fold, slightly fishy, and it's obviously very player dependent that I just basically buy this pot without repping anything.

His chat though made me laugh.

LOW__CHICAGO: i dont fold that to a Loooooooot of people

LOW__CHICAGO: you are one i do though....sigh

LOW__CHICAGO: nice bet

Worst player evaluation ever??

So anyway I played the session, ran $800 below EV, but I got a bit sad at the lack of games running at 7pm ET on a Saturday night. I basically think UB's dying, virtually no games during GMT daytime, barely able to 6 table at otherwise peak poker times at 400nl.

So, coupled with the discussions I keep having with Dodgy and ian about FT being somehow 'different' to UB, I've decided to postpone again my climb to 400nl on UB, and instead play another challenge of 30k hands of 200nl on FTP.

The reasons being, I get rakeback on there so wins over stars. Also, I need to conquer my FT fear as medium term if I want to be able to get 400nl+ volume I need to be on a site that plays during the day.

Also I get to repair my FT PTR which plain just annoys me actually, given that at the time of it I was in utter meltdown, wildly swinging from playing 12/10 to playing 45/30, triple barreling every single board and generally behaving like the -10ptbb fish that results indicated.

So I guess we get to see if my style can win on there. I don't think there's too many doubts, but I sense it lingering in the backs of Dodgy's, Ian's, and even my own mind sometimes when I come out with some of the more outlandish call down advice I've been passing around.

My good month last month means I'm not under any financial pressure for the first time in a while, which is nice. Just looking at a bank account of £10k rather than a £7k overdraft, and a roll of $15k rather than $2k means I can afford to take the time out from UB to do this.

Is all, widget will be updated accordingly..............

dan

Final Straight of 30k Hand Challenge

I have 2513 hands left to play of the 30k 200nl hands. All in all I think I've ran slightly below average situationally and certainly in terms of all in EV, but I still could've done a lot better had I identified certain leaks sooner.

I am at the very least happy that (barring any last minute disasters) it's done the jobs of making some money, helping me experiment a little at a lower level, and allowing me to identify and iron out a ton of leaks that have crept in.

So I have a slight feel of just wanting to finish the quota of hands so I can get back to 400nl and start a new challenge, but for now I really need to fight that and focus 100% on the remaining hands.

My current session goals are the same:

Stop the PF spew for 100bbs

Adjust to villain, plan hand all the way from PF depending on villain

PSR planning

Don't build big pots then fold, don't build big pots without a decent plan to win the hand.

Soulread based on betsizing.

Positional Awareness

Stop overbetting for value as much, and think on rivers

Early flop folds when raised

However I am failing badly on the last one....... I'm ~$800 up for the day, but I couple of 200bb river bluff shoves means I should be a whole lot more. Now, the shoves by themselves I don't hate and indeed would do again if I found myself in the spot, but the mistake in both cases was not making an extremely early flop fold.

The mistake that's crept in is to cbet say, 99 on A82hh, then I get minraised by moderately aggro fishy type, and I say to myself "ah I'll flat and win this pot somehow on the river". Thus I get to the river having to shove over a weak bet to win the pot.

So something that I think is really important in poker is this. A lot of people in the above hand would focus on the river shove rather than what is a whole ton more important, namely in this case the flop action, but often even so far back as PF.

What I need to realise about bluffing and shoving to win pots is that while I should definitely be doing it wherever I see a good spot, it should be as a last resort when other decent options, including big flop folds, have been exhausted. Planning to do so on the flop in a pot we're we've invested 7BBs is not the way to go about it.

However a turn spot in a big pot with maybe 2nd pair would still be fine to maybe call another barrel then shove the river if he bets again, as we have a plan to win at showdown if he checks gives up the river, while the risk reward is clearly skewed much more in our favour given the money already invested on the flop.

So for the rest of the hands I'll be checking my current goals text file very often, but the one on which I'm truly judging myself until the next blog is the big early flop folds one.............

dan

Leaks Reappear

I've really bled money the last 8k hands or so....... I feel I've definitely ran bad during this period in terms of every 100bb cooler spot going against me, and had I been playing my old game the damage could've been much worse I think.

Having said that, some bad leaks have definitely crept in, some separate from the ones listed below, on which I'll grade my recent performance now.

Decent 3betting frequencies - been averaging around 10% lately, probably a little too high depending on the situation but an improvement on before.

Adjust to villain, plan hand all the way from PF depending on villain - I'm definitely doing this better...... I play 2 almost diametrically opposed games depending on villain being very suspicious or very foldy at the moment.

Bobbo default cbet strategy - fine.

PSR planning - fine, I'm completely in the habit of quoting it to myself every medium sized pot now.

Don't build big pots then fold, don't build big pots without a decent plan to win the hand- fine.

Soulread based on betsizing - need to do more of this, 6/10.

I don't know where the goal of no PF spew went, but this really needs re-iterating. Today I had a note on a guy who 4bet a ton, like he was 33/22 and had a 4bet range of 5.6%. He'd previously 4bet called QTs for 100bbs.

I 3bet/5bet AJ in the SB vs his UTG+1 raise and got it in VS AQ. The massive mistake in this hand was to open up my 3bet/5bet range way too much. VS a guy like this with a weak getting in range I shouldn't be weakening my own range to this extent, rather I should simply avoid bluff 3betting him and look to get in AQs+, TT+.

The other leak that's creeping back in is a lack of positional awareness. Flatting 3bets OOP with small pairs less than 150bbs deep is one such example, but I'm also overcalling k3s 3way in the BB, flatting suited connectors too much to a single raise, and back to opening 20% utg and utg+1. So I need to be much tigher opening, and plan hands better so that I'm playing OOP a whole ton less.

Final leak, I keep fucking up rivers. Like this example, http://weaktight.com/2827709, villain is a cally fish, but with the OESD getting there this is thin as it gets. So I quickly bet here when what was needed was some real thought. I'm also totally overdoing river overbets for value, I feel like the last one got called in 1996. Implicit in this statement is that I'm realising that overbets carry a whole lot more FE than I previously thought, and thus in spots where villain's hand is easy to pin as weak (and he's bad/ foldy enough) I need to be throwing in more overbets.

Oh and I'm overbetting turns for value too much as well. I probably do a mix of 50/50 bluffs and value atm, but given the frequency at which they are called then a mix of 80/20 bluffs/value is more appropriate. I can adjust this frequency not by increasing my bluffs, but rather lowering the times I do it for value. The spots for value should be extremely specific, ie we have QQ on KQ6 8r where villain's flop calling range combinatorially is totally going to be top pair, or a weaker hand that would fold to a normal size bet anyway.

So for my next few sessions my goals are as follows, (dropping some that are currently not a problem, throwing in some of the above).

Stop the PF spew for 100bbs

Adjust to villain, plan hand all the way from PF depending on villain

PSR planning

Don't build big pots then fold, don't build big pots without a decent plan to win the hand.

Soulread based on bet sizing

Positional Awareness

Stop overbetting for value as much, and think on rivers

dan

In this blog I bluff fish

Discussed this with dodgy today, and loads of spots seemed to come up. All these hands are from today's sessions.........

http://weaktight.com/2825693 - villain 82/5 after 100 hands, peeled flops extremely wide so a spot similar to Ian's last one where I perhaps could've shut down on the flop. VS a fish with a wide PF and flop calling range, with all the draws and GSs, a triple is a must.

http://weaktight.com/2825697 - another fish, more standard probably.

http://weaktight.com/2825700 - same 82/5 guy as before.

http://weaktight.com/2825704 - 62/15, again probably standard, but I just know in my weak days of Feb2010 or whenever I'd have the 'dont bluff fish' mantra and shut down flop.

http://weaktight.com/2825708 - quite cool this one. GeorgeStag is a reg/ leggo member, the other guy is a 48/23 fish on whom I have a read bets hands he shouldn't IP, ie any pair. Flop float standard this deep, and depending on all the permutations was planning on winning this hand at some point when I can apply this much pressure.

http://weaktight.com/2825711 - 62/15 fish. Flop is a mistype i thought the pot was $28, but when he raises I'm calling to check down or fold low cards, or check shove the turn when something higher than a 7 turns. Just one of those 'he has a 5 so be it' spots, but so often 'cos he's clueless he has like 33 or something here with no concept of needing a reason to bet.

http://weaktight.com/2825713 - this one worked but was definitely misplayed technically.... I had a blink moment on the turn that he was bluffing, but nothing concrete to back it up and no equity and I wish I'd got my ass handed to me here.

http://weaktight.com/2825722- really bad spot for it (this guys 45/2 or something), reason being he either has a Q or bluffing a whole ton with all the GSs and oesds. So I'd call with like Khi+, but there's no need for me to raise so big as a bluff, like a minraise with no SD value would be absolutely fine. So this is what not to do.

http://weaktight.com/2825716 - more of a fishy reg, the best I can say is that he did at least time on this so I think the success % is pretty good when you know someone to be a flop and turn peeler

On the note of that last hand, an important thing to understand is some regs at 400nl are very good at not calling turns to fold rivers in spots where they expect you to be firing the river after they call the turn, example flop 974, you cbet and turn is a K, you bet again and good 400nl reg calls turn, you're FE on the river is very low but I'd obviously bet TT plus for value. I kind of know this instinctively and I think the stats would back me up.

Based on the Jungleman part of the conversation I had with Martin today, perhaps investing in some HHs for flop turn river fold %s might not be such a bad idea.

dan

Latest Vid

.............

Well I won $2.2k that session after the rant. Video of it with me voiceover is above..... I recommend the watch, I mean obviously I ran good but tons of spots that I talk about a lot came up (such as 3bet pots, checking the flop etc) and I was in a relatively articulate mood......

dan

Some Deserved Runbad

It's probably been at least 5 minutes in this blog since I completely and utterly berated myself, accused me of being a massive loser/failure/ retard who'll amount to nothing, and/ or compared myself to Billy Mitchell.

Here goes though.

Massive massive complacency set in at some point. Jesus I'm embarrassed to read that last blog entry or whatever now. Why didn't I just skip writing the lot and just do the cliffs:

'Dan runs hot in 15k hands of 200nl, plays decently well, but lets it goes to his head and promises to win the 400nl UGL. Dan then plays his next 6 sessions with all the concentration and dedication to his goals and technical ability of our erstwhile Eastender friend.'

I ran bad in that last session, losing over 10 200nl BIs, all of which are reciprocally neutral at the very least except one or 2, but hey I deserved it.

So here's some more pointers for the rest of the 30k hands.

Non Technical Goals Needed for Success

• Skype turned off prior to session (whoever messages me on skype when they catch me on a table wins $50).
• 9 tables max.
• IE and Chrom shut down prior to session.
• No lightheadedness.

Technical Goals Needed for Success

• Stop spewing 100bbs PF with TT, AQ, AJ, and 33. The reason you 3bet is because the regs at 200nl either lie down or 5bet shove 88. Stop playing into their hands.
• Keep 3betting at around 9% overall, your recent 4% was way too nitty and stopped you both from winning lots of small pots and also stop people paying off your big hands.
• Make massive, huge, enourmous adjustments depending on who the villain is. You know all the regs on UB inside and out. Some just lie down every hand, some are massively suspicious of you and will be forever. Stop bluffing them but take this concept right back to PF planning.
• Bobbo cbet strategy on the whole.
• Always plan hands around the PSR.
• Don't call 2 streets to fold the 3rd. Don't call 2 streets to CRAI the 3rd VS one of the afformentioned super suspicious types: Liuhampton, Marclar, Carrotsnake for example.
• Soulread hands based on betsizing tells, virtually every reg at 200nl makes huge mistakes in this regard, be it they cbet $12 into $15 with AK on K75ss but $8 with a flush draw, or the guys who 4bet to $60 to commit themselves with JJ.

So here's an abbreviated version of the above that will be used as my scorecard.

No Skype - x/10

9 Tables - x/10

No browser - x/10

No light headedness - x/10

No PF spew - x/10

Decent 3betting frequencies - x/10

Adjust to villain, plan hand all the way from PF depending on villain - x/10

Bobbo default cbet strategy - x/10

PSR planning - x/10

Don't build big pots the fold, don't build big pots without a decent plan to win the hand - x/10

Soulread based on betsizing - x/10

I'm making a video of this next session, live commentary. Video and review to follow.........

dan

Wobble

Quite a big wobble actually. I played a session Wednesday where the main lesson was that I can't play 12 tables when half of them are turbo and when I'm slightly stuck. I feel much better at 9 and I'll stick to that the remainder of this 30k hand spell.

Then yesterday I awoke after about 2 hours sleep all night, and played completely shattered and was fortunate to escape. I say lucky because $700 that I lost was completely horrendous and only this spazzery on his part saved me from another $1k or so loss.

I've noticed that when I'm needing to correct my game, I don't really focus on specific hands as others do, rather I worry about generalities. As such, I don't like the way my red line has flat-lined now over a decent sample, and over an even bigger sample if I don't include a decent sized jump on around 10k hands. The red line slowly moving up, even over a small sample (much less sample is needed than usual winrate) is a pretty key indicator of how well I'm playing.

Now, obviously it's very chicken and egg, and I don't think it's usually a good idea to chase the egg (red line up) by focussing on the chicken (well played hands), but it's obvious to me that I'm letting certain standards slip. I doubt it's my focus on keeping pots small, but rather I could be purposely inflating certain pots with the sole intention of winning them. Flatting KJhh from the blinds, CRing Q96 (one heart) firing turn and shoving river comes to mind, because at present I'm either folding PF to a single raise or 3betting.

I'll play a session now anyway with focus on the following goals: Make big early folds.

Be positionally aware.

Board textures

Bet sizes

application application application

Then I can judge further from a properly played 9 tabling non tilty session.

dan

One Third The Way There

Played ~ 10k of the 30k hands now, and I'm over halfway towards my $ goal. Had another good day today, but started to worry slightly when I felt the old lack of ambition creep up on me.

How do I describe this? It's like....... the regs at 200nl are just so much worse than the regs at 400nl+. Suspicious in all the wrong spots, calling flop to always fold the turn, horrendous betsizing tells, and worst (best?) of all simply can't value bet to save their lives. Life 12 tabling 200nl at the moment seems stunningly easy, and I need to shake myself out of that mindset as soon as these 30k hands are done.

So around the 22nd October my 30k hands will be complete and I can return to 400nl. My plan at that point is to try and have a really sick week up until the 28th, have the weekend off and maybe go Brighton with Nic or somewhere, and then really hit the ground running in November and aim to win the 400nl UGL PTR thing. I'm going to take prop bets on achieving this at around 9/1, hoping to book around $4k action on my end.

I won't lie, taking such a prop bet does set you up for a massive fall....... egg on the face palpable as I start the month off with the usual $10k downer, but we'll see.

Hands

http://weaktight.com/2807210 - this just an example of what I'm talking about when I harp on about big early folds. 4 way, no chance of improvement, I could do something cool with KJ in this spot planning to win the hand, but with actual non-improveable showdown value the earlier I get out of this spot the better.

http://weaktight.com/2807219 - sorta cool HU hand

http://weaktight.com/2807223 - mandatory carrotsnake stackage

http://weaktight.com/2807225 - bad river bluff, I was kinda wedded to winning this hand but on this exact river card I need to shut down. In retrospect I would've check called actually it's a cool spot for it.

dan

Today Review

Today I played well again overall. Alas (see widget, god i love that word) there has been a big separation between my actual winnings and my all in EV. Some of the hands you simply wouldn't believe but I won't bore, the important thing is that my actual $ is still decently positive and over the winrate challenge of 5ptbb (and thus $6k in 30k hands) that I set myself.

Theme of today is still having a plan to win the hand after a certain amount of money has gone in, and so here's some more raw hands for perusal's sake for people who are interested.

http://weaktight.com/2800811 - fail

http://weaktight.com/2800812 - backdoor flushes are pretty plausible shoving spots I think

http://weaktight.com/2800814 - from this villain this just really felt like a PP feeler bet, having 2 callers meant the PSR was good for a straight c-jam on the flop, which isn't always the case in a usual 3x 3bet pot.

http://weaktight.com/2800820 - PF is obviously a mixing up play, I think I'd 4bet if it were AKo, AKs allows much more playability in terms of backdoors.

3.36 am...... if I told you that I sky plussed today's daily politics and now I'm going to go watch it, what would you say? Andrew Neil is my hero though.

dan

Good Start To Challenge

Good start in all the ways . I'm winning (see widget), red line up, feeling very confident. Also feeling happier in general, knowing that I'm in it for the 30k hand long haul and not fretting over losing 100bbs to carrotsnake, his PF 33 call to my jj shove, etc. And so far my dog lives.

I coached Ian of Monkey Flower's fame this morning (tell me if you don't want this mentioned to the 6 people or so that read it). I actually really enjoyed it, I think basically because he was so enthusiastic and willing to take stuff on board, plus I feel like he's at the exact level where I can give optimum amounts of help...... ie, not knowing too much and not knowing too little either. With his attitude I can't really see how he's going to fail......

But Ian, you sound a lot like Karl Pilkington, and this is basically how I picture you as well.

So coaching got me thinking about poker for the day and definitely helped me in the 3 sessions I subsequently played. I enjoyed thinking and talking about poker so much that I got around to watching Dodgy's video again, and could actually think of stuff to say about it too.

Something I talked a lot about today was having a plan to win the hand once some money's gone in, and this plan should be based on the flop PSR, ie do we raise now or later, call this street fold that street etc, so here's some example hands.

http://weaktight.com/2799815 - so raising at any point here before the river runs the risk of having to raise fold, which is a disaster. So with a PSR of ~ 8, my plan is always to call/ call/ bet big (probably overbet on pure blank) or call/ call/ shove over river bet.

http://weaktight.com/2799830 - more of a standard spot, but I think a lot of people make the mistake of giving up the river on these ace hi boards, which I think on this board specifically would be a huge burning of money.

http://weaktight.com/2799850 - this hand I'm HU with Carrotsnake, and I think VS a player like that it's important to get inside his head. Betting the Ace turn here screams bluff, as this deep with an Ace I should be afraid of the flush out there. Timing and checking it implies some showdown value, and I think in his shoes he should bet turn and river with close to 100% of his range. So then on the river after he checks I can rep a value bet with a turned ace or KQ/KJ type hands.

http://weaktight.com/2799860 - they don't all work

dan

Another Day, Another Year Zero

Jesus Christ, I need to find a way of sticking to my blog resolutions. Usually the promises made here have all the staying power of the winner of X Factor...... even throwing money at the problem in terms of props doesn't work, 'cos I just cancel the prop obviously.

Oh well here goes. Since my last couple of blogs I played 4 sessions of 200nl, winning them all. I was extremely keen to win, and stuck to my goals with distinction.

Then something went wrong. Specifically playing very light headed for much longer than the usual 55 minutes. I find myself caught up again in my short term monetary results, rather than

the much more noble goal of playing a session of maximum length of 55 minutes, clear headed, while keeping in mind the technical goals as laid out beforehand.

I need direction. I desperately want to force myself to play 30k hands of 200nl over the next 10 days, but doubt the strength of my resolution in doing so. I think I touched on the answer though.... the goal itself has to be the things laid out above, not the monetary amount.

Ok here goes, I'm adding a widget to my blog. The widget is currently a picture of a blank graph. The graph will change until it reaches 30k hands. I'll update the widget every day, maximum of 2 days without changing it.

Should I fail to do this, then with Jesus (I'm not religious btw, I could easily substitue nanonoko in there) as my witness my dog shall catch kennel cough and die a tortuous death. So just to be clear;

NO 400nl until 30k hands of 200nl.

OFTEN updating of the widget pic.

STOP session at 55 minutes in length (timer starts once I'm sat at all tables).

Or the dog dies.

(yes this is him sharing a meal with my bunnies)

Session 2

Won again (700ish), though sadly probably more a function of run good than 'default of winning poker'. I didn't lose any big pots though, which must be at least in part a function of making big early folds.

I've still the same goals for session 3 until they're properly nailed down.......

dan

Session 1

I'm not supposed to check the cashier, nevertheless I won money and for the first time in a week my red line was decently positive.

http://weaktight.com/2792241 -this hand I had a lot of conflicting ideas. On the one hand I hate checking the turn and allowing him a free look with all his draws (although, on 2nd thoughts, he probably bets them anyway), on the other getting raised is sad but probably doesn't happen that often. Also, calling flop leading turn usually gets zero respect, but then if he's sat there with AJ I doubt he's raising to commit this big.

I notice in Oldjude's quite often he outlines his plan, ie here he'd say 'I'm gonna call the flop and lead the turn and river as I don't expect to get any respect', but then something different'll happen like this commiting raise and he'll happily re-evaluate, whereas I tend to get fish hooked to my plan. It works out sometimes of course, just occasionally a certain turn betsize or timing tell or something should allow me to escape and I don't take the opportunity.

So back to the hand....... I feel like call call call is the best line, given call/ lead/ fold is gay and at least opens the door to the odd bluff. The biggest lesson in this hand though for me, is that PF I should just fold this in the SB to an UTGr.

Positional Awareness: D

I still don't really fold top pair and don't intend to start, but still this spot makes me a little sad. He knows I'm not barrelling this turn a lot with bluffs, he knows I don't fold, he knows he only reps 5x and doesn't have too many of them. I could fold turn, but my religion doesn't allow me to. http://weaktight.com/2792262 Having said that call call must be better.

This bastard fish raises all kinds of "dont raise those" type hands on the flop, so I like my plan but he binked and I failed http://weaktight.com/2792274

So I was stuck for quite a bit of this session, luckily (and not for the first time) Carrotsnake came to my rescue with one of his specials http://weaktight.com/2792278 .

So my goals remain the same going into session 2........

dan

Year Zero (AKA here we go again)

What can I say. I have FORGOTTEN how to play poker. I'm not even lying. It's not just that I'm losing, or running bad and lacking confidence, it's that I'm staring at my screen while I play and my mind is UTTERLY blank.

There's just, nothing there. The example I gave earlier is that it's like watching a chess match between 2 grand masters. Yes I'm aware of the pieces (cards), yes I have some vague semblance of the goal of winning; but the important stuff of actually being able to look at a situation and see all its intricies and complexities has completely left me.

It means, for example, that I'll 3bet 97s in the blinds and get flatted. Flop Q64hh.

Hmm.....

Bet?

I guess.

Ok

Called, turn is J h.

Bet?

Shrug

Give up?

FUCK KNOWS !

This thought process is re-occurring every hand. I don't know where the knowledge has gone, it's simply left me. Maybe stolen, in which case at least it's being put to good use. I see Dushelov's finally starting to win some money, so he's the #1 suspect right now.

I started watching Dodgy's video that he sent me again. I tried to message him my thoughts, but the facebook client wouldn't allow a blank message.

But anyway wherever it's gone, I need to start on the slow process of getting it back. I lost $1k today, and tilt withdrew another $3.5k (by the way, I highly recommend withdrawing money to deal with the stress of a losing day). My roll now sits pretty at $6.5k.

So obviously 200nl until I make 20 or so BIs, or until I'm so confident that I step up to 400nl on this roll. Not seeming likely at this moment in time, but anyway maybe.

So first things first, the way to get it back is to set myself session goals. Then play a session, then review said session against said goals. The way I've always done in other words.

So my goals for this upcoming session are:

• Make big early folds.
• Be positionally aware.

Simple things, which aren't going to help by themselves. However the route back to profit is to nail a couple of goals at a time.

So, session review coming up....... I don't necessarily expect to win but it does at least put me back on a path.

dan

The Conlon Manoeuvre

What is The Conlon Manoeuvre? If you haven't already guessed, it's withdrawing most of your roll....... this is done sometimes by virtue of tilt, often with a promise of 'quitting' poker, but the manoeuvre itself is simply the act of putting out of action that money which you no longer trust yourself not to gamble away recklessly.

Today I withdrew my roll down to $10k. I'm only stuck $3k for the month, but I could easily be much much more. I'm down because I lost the will to win for some reason at the start of the month. Don't ask me why, it just disappeared. It seems to have come back today, but in case it actually hasn't then I don't trust myself to start 12 tabling 5-10 with a bad mood and a light head.

Having a $10k roll somehow keeps up the pressure that I doubtless need. Yes, it sets me back on some of my poker goals, namely moving to 5-10 full time ASAP, but before I do that anyway I would like a much larger sample of consistently winning the money than the past 85k hands at $20k in winnings.

Some big technical leaks have crept in as of late. I'm back to opening 22% UTG, I'm creating big pots with marginal hands, I'm out-levelling myself with river bluffs, I'm autopiloting on 12 tables (a real killer), etc. The month is young, 21 days left and a 20k hand run of 200nl will leave me with enough time to make 5 figures again in October.

http://bigbobspoker.blogspot.com/ is my current apprentice (/ father in law to be). He's learning cash from the 0.05-0.10 limit, so if anyone can spare the odd comment I'm sure it would make his day.

Is all, dan

My Apprentice's Blog

http://bigbobspoker.blogspot.com/

More accurately, my father in law-to-be. But he's learning cash at the very micros so check it out.

dan

No Cashier Time

I've never known what it is to be unmotivated before. I guess, around the time I was supposed to start getting less motivated was probably this time last year. What happened then though is that I started struggling.

Up and down, I've felt like I've been struggling ever since. I can't relax at all when I'm struggling. Like every time I had some Fifa night or stag do or whatever I'd secretly just want to be putting work in to get me back onto an even keel.

At the moment I feel like I play perfectly every time I sit down. Unless I start losing, or until I move up in stakes, there's a chance I'm going to keep feeling like this.

But anyway, the purpose of this blog is to say that I've put in barely any hands since coming back from London, and the ones I have put in have been much less than 100% effort. I need to sort this out, and stop checking my cashier to see if I've met my days $ quota yet. That kind of stuff is a killer, so until this time next week I'm not checking HEM or my cashier at all, and instead am returning to the aim of playing each and every hand to my 100% best ability.

Then I'll post a graph, and either dance or cry. Being rid of the hourly progress checks is a massive relief though.

dan

Vid Link

I've uploaded the vid I did now, I've forgotten who asked for the link so if you did then please hit me up again. Dodgy your review you'll receive tomorrow. Fuller entry to follow, dan