Bleh Blah Bling

No sooner do I win $3k in a couple of days, then I lose it all in the next 2 days. It's annoying that my confidence is so fragile that literally one bad session had it shattered, but I think until I stick 500,000 solid hands behind me then t'will always be thus.

Looking through all the big losing pots of the last few days, there's all the symptoms and hallmarks of lacking confidence. Outrageous spews, refusal to give up, 4bets flatted 100bbs OOP with small PPs, 3bet/ 5bets with no instinctive gut feeling that I'm getting a lot of folds.....

I can feel myself during gametime 'forcing' things as well. Making decisions for the wrong reasons, trying to fight the utter spew of the 200nl regs with utter spew of my own.

Basically, I need to chill the fuck out. Take the low variance option when I'm unsure. Be calm, soulread hands, capitalise on mistakes. For all the reasons I need to relax. When I'm not relaxed, I don't know how to play poker. My brain stops telling me what button to click. I take a wild stab, and on current form I'd be better rolling a dice as I don't think my success % has come anywhere near 33%.

For some reason as well during my troubles I've suddenly had trouble 12 tabling. Very weird, when I was winning it felt like I could play 20 tables without breaking sweat. I'm going to drop to 9 tables for a while. Theoretically my hourly drops by 25%, but I'd be shocked if my EV didn't rise by at least that amount to compensate.

Finish on a good note though which is rare for this blog. I think my A game makes me the best 200nl reg on Stars, and by a distance. I know what my A game involves, and I have the gist of how to play my A game. Before this crisis I was cruising to a 5 figure month, and if I follow these cliffs then I should do extremely well the rest of the month.

Be happy.

Chill the fuck out/ be relaxed.

Hate to lose.

Don't force stuff.

Soulread hands.

Trust instinct always.

Playing Deep..........

My month so far.....

A few weeks ago, I remember having some conversation about playing deep, and how comfortable I am with it as the AP games of old were all deep.

These stats suggest differently, and I think I need to face up the possibility that that I'm really misreading stuff in a lot of deep pots. Although I feel happy enough, and maybe I could just tighten up or whatever, I think I just have to start buying in for 100bbs and think about leaving tables where I approach 200bbs.

The chance that I'm wrong about being comfortable, and thus these stats actually being representative, comes to just too high a price.

This hand http://weaktight.com/3225986 is I think the last straw. I thought about it and went with my instincts, which PF, flop and turn were screaming weakness. River, it's hard to put me on a flush draw that check called down, and I infer from this he's more likely to bluff than say keep value betting AA/ set this strong.

Oh and PF's probably a fold obviously, but these are the scrapes I get into this deep, and there's just no need to put myself though the variance and potential negative winrate when I feel so comfortable 100bbs deep right now.

Some more deep disasters:

http://weaktight.com/3225993

http://weaktight.com/3225995

http://weaktight.com/3225996 - villain very bluff happy, potentially 3bet bluffing, but still I hated myself as I see raise getting in NNFDs as a huge leak for the most part.

So I'll set my BI amount to 100bbs for now, and maybe come back to an overall deep strategy later on.

_______

Oh and about that thread, I emailed FTP myself and got this reply:

Hello Dan,

Please also note that Poker Table Ratings is not permitted during play.

As you brought this issue to our attention, no action will be taken now. However, any repeat violations may lead to having your account permanently closed and any outstanding balance forfeited to compensate victims.

For more information on our policies about third-party software or website use on Full Tilt Poker, please visit: http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/prohibited_programs.php

This link also contains a list of allowed and banned programs - if you are interested in using a program not listed, please let us know and we will confirm if it is allowed.

Please also note that as you are a black card member, you should email our dedicated black card support team: blackcard@fulltiltpoker.com in relation to any query - we aim to respond to an email within 30 minutes.

If there's anything else we can help you with, please feel free to ask. We're always here to help.

Regards,

Gearoid

Poker Specialist

Full Tilt Poker Support

Session Review # 2

Hands: 1924
Net: $219
EV: $55

Regardless of the small net, this was a successful session. Basically because in pots > 190bbs I lost $700, and made it all back and more in the smaller pots. I lost my head once all session and lost 200bbs, which I'm angry about but I believe is going to be the exception and not the rule.

In terms of generalities, it's important that my overall mindset remain one of calm and not try to push things too early. I was also very conscious of not making light peels, and I'm back in the routine of CRing rivers with value hands I don't think are good in the right spots.

My cliffs of how to win at poker right now:

3bet a lot
Stay happy
Trust instincts
Don't get in big pots and give up
Cbet a lot

INTENSITY
Oh, and be just a little tighter PF- 12tabling at 28/24 is not easy

So par for this session was probably around what I earned.

Next session now, 1250 hands......

Session Review 1

Hands: 935

Net: $-131

EV: $83

I'll start with the big pots, of the 4 200bb pots I played (losing 100bbs), one was badly played, one was a definite cooler (3bet pot AQ on KQQ), one was a big suckout and one was a PF flip AK losing to QQ

Of the ones I won, one was a fish spaz, one was a PF flip, one was a squeeze with 96s that made the nuts.

I'm sad at the big pot I played terribly, very terribly. May as well get it out there........

http://weaktight.com/3206851 need to bet turn, or as played fold river, or preferably bet flop and turn, and if checking turn don't bet river!

In terms of generalities, I'd say I didn't pay 100% attention to my instincts, and especially made too many loose flop peels with no plan to win the hand VS further aggression. I think I also need to seize on definite weakness more and not worry about my own lack of repping something.

Loose peels are the biggest thing I think, especially say, on the turn IP after I check flop with a GS and I'm then left making the worst (200nl) bluff ever on the river.

On the whole, I think I hit around par for this session, but I need to start sinking some birdies.

Goals:

• No loose peels
• Trust instincts and override the conventional wisdom

Current Things

A problem

Becomes a problem

When you lie to your friends

And, you lie to your people

Any you lie to yourself

...................................................

And only fools vultures and undertakers

Will have any time for you

________________________

Hard to know where to begin. Yesterday was a disappointing day, up 4 BIs after first 2 sessions, dropped 7.5 BIs on the last one. The session went on for too long, I was unaware of any dynamics for the vast majority of it, and I guess I was clicking buttons in all small pots and most medium pots waiting for big pots to develop.

http://weaktight.com/3206618 This hand I got wrong, and my opponent got right, though for all the wrong reasons. I've already gone into this hand deeply with someone on skype so won't do again, but the jist and lesson is that I need to stop putting my own thought processes onto others.

http://weaktight.com/3206623 Similarly, I have a hundred and 1 examples of this guy playing extremely weakly when deep. I mean literally he 3bets AA and pot controls J83r flops, or bets once OOP and checks twice.

Each to their own, but he's obviously very nuts or air here, where nuts cannot equal AK. But still, why do I even think him capable of running a bluff like this? Animal types! He's an afraid, terrified when deep, loss minimising scared weakling and I should treat him as such.

Anyway, I'm losing money in all smaller pots too, and my red line is dire which for me is usually an indication of something going badly wrong. My cbet has dropped to 55% again, and my 3bet down to 6%.

Too many tables? Indeed, but I think too many tables combined with a loss of purpose and a sense of inertia and a general lack of proper concentration are the biggest factors.

I'm going to try playing 1250 hand sessions and then review them on their merits, see how that goes. Goals and stuff, ratings and that. I think my general approach right now is the right one (listen to my instincts to make big calls and big folds and big value bets and big checks) but I definitely need to refine some problems, target some leaks, and generally berate myself a whole lot more................

dan