Session 3 of September 2010

Another decent effort. Averaged 28/21 simply by virtue of the number of fish popping up left right and centre. I didn't lose many pots at all through focus on reverse equity folds, and just didn't give anything away through any kind of PF spew.

Triple barrel for balancing. http://weaktight.com/2629424 I didn't mean to bet the turn so small. This is one of those spots that I just love when they call with QT and just feel so owned. Similar to the spot below actually, albeit that was yesterday:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	BMW_GOLFPRO2	$528.14
UTG+1	IM_CANDYGIRL	$478.50
CO	NAWADEE	$294.50
BTN	GROGHEADFLOW	$400
SB	DANISH33	$13.12
BB	AARONAGUSTO	$708.10

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is BTN
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 raises to $12, 1 fold, NAWADEE calls $12, GROGHEADFLOW calls $12, 2 folds

• Flop ($42, 3 players)
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 checks, NAWADEE checks, GROGHEADFLOW bets $25, BMW_GOLFPRO2 calls $25, NAWADEE folds

• Turn ($92, 2 players)
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 checks, GROGHEADFLOW bets $60, BMW_GOLFPRO2 calls $60

• River ($212, 2 players)
• 

BMW_GOLFPRO2 checks, GROGHEADFLOW bets $303, BMW_GOLFPRO2 calls $303

• Final Pot: $818

• GROGHEADFLOW shows
• 

• BMW_GOLFPRO2 shows
• 

• GROGHEADFLOW wins $814.50 (net +$414.50)
• BMW_GOLFPRO2 lost $400
• NAWADEE lost $12

Then a funny sort of spot here http://weaktight.com/2629428

PF, the guy bets 15% on the button. I'm assuming it's wider still BTN vs CO. We're 200bbs, and a flat is fine. On the flop, I'm usually the first to scream reverse equity, but I can make some assumptions that allow me to play future streets very confidently. Firstly, if the turn comes a low blank he's checking down his air for sure, meaning I get to see showdown fairly easily.

Secondly, there's a good chance he checks a piece of this board this deep, so 9x is almost out.

Thirdly, if the turn comes an ace, then I can call again as he's ALWAYS betting his air twice (but KK-TT disappear), but my perceived range would be such that he wouldn't bluff the river as I very likely have an AQ type hand that floated this dry of a flop. An ace coming is also in my favour, as it gets checked back a decent % of the time. Don't discount set and GS outs too.

I was a bit lost here http://weaktight.com/2629443 on the river. Paired board, non-nut flush, albeit a very suspicious and cally opponent. I shoved for want of a better option. I think 1/3 pot is better though in hindsite, and I must remember that option for future similar spots.

One more session before bed. Tight PF, no PF spew, the rest should hopefully follow........

dan

Sessions 1+2 of September

I met my immediate goals both sessions, ie no PF spew and a 22/18ish style. I was 3 handed and HU for quite a bit of the second session, so obviously had to ramp it up a little but on the whole I didn't give much away.

I probably ran quite well too, especially in the first session.

This hand, I can't quite decide between raising flop and calling.

http://weaktight.com/2628635

On the one hand, I rep a ton more by calling. On the other hand, in practice, the guy is barrelling any overcard (32% chance of over card coming on the turn), leaving me often stuck calling again then making an unconvincing river bluff. By raising, he might peg me for a flush draw and that only, but really there's not a whole lot he can do about it. I think in his shoes I check jam the turn if he's never folding on a blank, as really he shouldn't expect me to continue my bluff on the river. Running well here is the river being a J and not a 6........

http://weaktight.com/2628741 I did not know what to do on the river. I think betting butchers it though......

http://weaktight.com/2628795 Very unsure here on the river. I think he's supposed to have QJdd, and that only, but then I didn't want to call either. Hmm.

dan

September Starts Here

The start of every month is the 'most important', but I really feel like this September is the most important I've had this year. It's long, it's unbroken, I have no shitty festivals or weddings or stag dos taking up 4 day chunks of my time. I'm coming off the back of an $11k upswing after being stuck the same amount, and it's my best chance to post $20k+ for the first time this year.

I've written similar blogs at the start of months before. Then something flips inside my head, I stop making blog posts, I drop $9k in the first 3 or so days. Then I get my head on, analyse everything properly, identify leaks and weaknesses, and probably drop down a level. Then I spend the rest of the month getting even.

This time has to be different. This time, I need all the rigour of success from day 1, session 1.

I've had a few losing sessions today and yesterday. Complacency definitely set in. Currently, this manifests itself in the following two ways:

• Tons of PF spew, tons of getting in 33/ AQo UTG+1, etc.
• Stats hit something like 33/25 again.

A word about stats and 3bet %s and such. Obviously there's nothing wrong in playing 33/25 in itself, given I'm happy in lots of postflop situations. There's nothing wrong with 3betting a lot, provided it's controlled.

Importantly though, we should look at one of the main reasons for playing so loose. The main reason I've always played so loose is so that my ranges are always wide, and I'll always get paid off with my big hands.

Plenty of the hands I play when playing 33/25, ie 97s UTG 6 handed, blatantly can't be played profitably VS 5 decent opponents in a vacuum. I can just about break even though, and the whole image that is subsequently projected means nobody is folding TT to my UTG+1 3bet, nobody is finding a hero fold with AJ on an Ace hi board in a 3bet pot VS me, etc.

To play 97s remotely profitably too, I'm going to need some decent amount of fold equity from time to time. That doesn't mean folding out Ace and K hi, it means making someone fold AT on a JT3hh flop from time to time.

So two things,

a) I don't have that FE.

b) The main reason for the looseness, ie the subsequent paying off, is already there and isn't going anywhere any time soon.

The above might not be true if people actually cared about session gameflow any more. But I don't think any of the middling regs do. They've got a HUD, it says I 3bet every position 14%. They have notes, it says I triple barrel most wet boards with junk providing a smidgen of equity.

GuiGui is I think a very good example. Everyone has a story of the time Gui 3bet/5bet 87s for example. Everyone knows that he's capable of overbet bluffing, and cbet/ CRing the turn with marginal draws. The fact that we have this knowledge makes him more difficult to play against than it actually should be given his frequencies for such moves are frankly (IMO) extremely low.

I'm basically in Gui's position, ^100, and it's time I exploited that properly with a massive gear change, simply by virtue of keeping myself at around 22/18. If I'm ever much looser in a session, it's either going to be by virtue of a fish to my right, or laziness.

So first session of September coming up. Goals are to stay 22/18ish, and not to do any PF 5bet spews. Review to follow in 45................

Robusto!

I don't think the image works. I guess I thought it'd look like a gigantic grin, but if anything actually it's just a shaggy beard. Which is also apt given the obsession I've shown to digging myself out of this hole.

I'm still 6.5k below EV, down from $11.5k at my lowest ebb, so obviously I've made some of that on the upswing.

The upswing has all been 6 tables, averaging 23/18 and 10% 3betting. So basically nittier PF, but I haven't really changed anything postflop at all, I'm just getting into less scrapes by virtue of frequencies.

45.75 hours left to make some August money now...........

dan

Small Change of Direction

I haven't documented every session. I've done OK, but a few obvious mistakes are still letting me down. Still important to change things up until I get back into a winning groove.

This hand from today shows off my current image:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	SHABBAXXX	$200
CO	WBFINIST	$202.40
BTN	CRATERING	$201.25
SB	GROGHEADFLOW	$355
BB	ARSENIK666	$322

• Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is SB
• 

2 folds, CRATERING raises to $5, GROGHEADFLOW raises to $19, 1 fold, CRATERING calls $14

• Flop ($40, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $18, CRATERING calls $18

• Turn ($76, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $41, CRATERING calls $41

• River ($158, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $277, CRATERING calls $123.25

• Final Pot: $558.25

• CRATERING shows
• 

• GROGHEADFLOW shows
• 

• GROGHEADFLOW wins $554.75 (net +$199.75)
• CRATERING lost $201.25

Weirdly, although I was obviously chuft to see him call down here, a part of me was like Jesus have things really gotten that bad?

I've averaged 30/24 this month. Now, I think it's a myth that certain hands 'need' FE to be profitable, as this doesn't take into account the players present. 87s VS a fish doesn't need FE, I'm just gonna make a lot of money the times it makes a hand. VS regs at the moment though with my current image, I'm pretty sure I'm finding it hard to play a ton of hands where previously I could rely on getting a lot of folds.

So, while still keeping the same goals spelt out a few blogs ago, I'm having a mini change of direction. I'll be 6 tabling, but aiming for more like 21/18 type stats. This is a pretty drastic sudden change, and I wouldn't expect it to be picked up on for a while, if ever. Postflop, I'm still going to be animalastic where I think necessary, but tighter preflop will mean my frequencies for said plays will go down a whole lot.

So about to play a session, I'll post results and vpip/pfr and review the hands once I'm done.

dan

Fourth Session

Won again, around a buyin. Felt very tuned in and played some decent hands.

http://weaktight.com/2592737

http://weaktight.com/2592739

Didn't lose more than 20bbs in a hand except this one: http://weaktight.com/2592742 , meaning with a VPIP of over 30 I was on top of reverse equity spots and not spewing PF.

The minute I massively slip in any of my stated session goals this blog will be the first to know about it.

dan

3rd Session

I won again:

Being aware of reverse equity situations- 6

http://weaktight.com/2592604 - so this is a spot where I need to be folding the turn or maybe even flop. On the turn, my instinct is to say 'right my hand is the same as A3'. Because of the equity even his semi bluffs have (all turned spades, most of which have overs too), this isn't remotely true:

99

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 85.872% 85.87% 00.00% 16776 0.00 { AA, 88, 55, 22, AJs+, A8s, A5s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, QcJc, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, ATo+ }

Hand 1: 14.128% 14.13% 00.00% 2760 0.00 { 99 }

A3

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 65.696% 65.48% 00.21% 4927 16.00 { AA, 88, 55, 22, AJs+, A8s, A5s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, QcJc, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, ATo+ }

Hand 1: 34.304% 34.09% 00.21% 2565 16.00 { A3s }

So a fail on reverse equity, but a lesson learned.

Tighter opening UTG, UTG+1. - 10

Not spewing PF with 4bets 100bbs deep, and light 3bet/5bets with not enough of a reason for them. - 7.

http://weaktight.com/2592607 - if I ever am going to 3bet/5bet, I'd much rather be doing it with a small pair rather than AQ, especially because most won't always be 4betting TT IP. In this spot, I'd just won a big pot off him and I felt he was tilted and I was pretty sure he was 4betting light. Different to the Iketoys hand, where I was just playing guessing games.

Applying plenty of pressure in small and medium sized pots, but remembering that what often separates a lagtard from a decent player is the ability to recognise as early as possible when a bluff has failed. - 7/10, not good not bad. In this hand, I should probably give up the turn on that exact card, http://weaktight.com/2592608 but at least didn't overshove the river!

Bobbo-esq cbet strategies as a default, unless very good reason not to.- 10/10

4 tables, time on decisions. 10/10

Solid in big pots. 10/10, I didn't lose any. I made one light call down here http://weaktight.com/2592611 (Matt's student!) that looks less light when the board pairs, but say the river was Q/K it was getting snapped given gameflow and combos of value hands actually there (very few) VS tons of overs+GS type things.

Don't fold in big pots. - 10/10

What does he expect me to do? 10/10 - typically this involves biggish folds. None really came up though.

Plan 3 barrels around the PSR. 10/10

So next session, we'll see if any leaks resurface.........

dan

2nd Session

Was pretty good, and I won money. All the grady things were 8 or above, and the only time I lost more than 21bbs was this hand:

http://weaktight.com/2591125 - PSR of 2.5 on the flop, villain is squeezy and spewy and not very good. I was able to move straight on from this without a moment's thought.

3rd coming up......

First Session Again

Lost $117. Made at least $400 of clear mistakes, lets look at why.

Being aware of reverse equity situations- fine 10/10

Tighter opening UTG, UTG+1- fine 10/10

Not spewing PF with 4bets 100bbs deep, and light 3bet/5bets with not enough of a reason for them. -

10th or so hand of the session: http://weaktight.com/2590807 SIGH. My history with Iketoys is that he previously used to 4bet bluff me a lot, not I think he's downright stopped as I was going through a strong 3bet/5bet stage. Here I fuck up badly, as I don't expect to be 4bet a lot and want to be flatted with dominated Ks and Qs and seize the initiative. Then he 4bets, and I forget my 'not spewing PF' thing immediately and jam.

I hate flatting in the SB to a single open raise, but I guess the answer is that if I'm ever going to do it, AQ is the hand to do it with. Either that or 3bet fold. Essentially it's just basic polarisation I'm lacking in this spot, and need to be flatting hands like this more.

Applying plenty of pressure in small and medium sized pots, but remembering that what often separates a lagtard from a decent player is the ability to recognise as early as possible when a bluff has failed.

http://weaktight.com/2590813 - I don't mind the 3bet VS this guy. Opens 24% UTG, flats everything, slightly fishy, I'm ahead of his flatting range PF. My plan on the flop is to set up a turn shove on any broadway or diamond. I think though that the 3d specifically is a TAD optimistic, as he probably talks himself into a call with 77-99 and any diamond. I should be looking for the turn to go check check and then either spike or bluff a K or possibly a Q. Instead I landed a gigantic fail. 2/10

Bobbo-esq cbet strategies as a default- fine 10/10

4 tables, time on decisions- fine 10/10

Solid in big pots. That doesn't mean play like a nit, it means having strong relative strength hands when a lot of money goes in.- 5/10

http://weaktight.com/2590819 - this guy bluffs a lot and flats everything. We're also fairly deep, so a CC line to induce bluffs and minimize losses was best I think. This morning I probably bet bet shove.

What does he expect me to do? - 7/10, could improve, need to ask it every street of every hand.

Plan 3 barrels around the PSR. - 10/10

So in summary for this next session, improve on the PF spew first and foremost. Not shoving turns on virtual blanks again should be a given.....

Results to follow!

Things Coming Together.....

Not results wise as such. I'm over $10k down in EV for the month, which obviously shatters confidence, but all I can do is keep coming up with plans to turn things around, then implement them in the hope of getting into a winning habit.

The process feels a lot like this game:

As in, no sooner do I work on a certain leak then another previously fixed leak from the past again rears its worm-like head. So suddenly I'm like ok stop spewing in 3bet pots, and then I find myself opening 64s UTG again. Or I learn to give up the occasional bluff, but lo and behold I've slipped back into auto pilot 6 tabling again. If only I can get everything together at once then I'm due another massive upswong.

In no particular order, these are the things that not doing has caused me trouble in the past month.

1. Being aware of reverse equity situations- equity VS flop range isn't enough of a reason to call OOP with little chance of hand improvement with two streets left to play and bad decisions yet to be factored in.
2. Tighter opening UTG, UTG+1.
3. Not spewing PF with 4bets 100bbs deep, and light 3bet/5bets with not enough of a reason for them.
4. Applying plenty of pressure in small and medium sized pots, but remembering that what often separates a lagtard from a decent player is the ability to recognise as early as possible when a bluff has failed.
5. Bobbo-esq cbet strategies as a default, unless very good reason not to.
6. 4 tables, time on decisions.
7. Solid in big pots. That doesn't mean play like a nit, it means having strong relative strength hands when a lot of money goes in.
8. Don't fold in big pots.
9. What does he expect me to do?
10. Plan 3 barrels around the PSR.

These 10 will do for starters. I'm back on session reviews and grading sessions based on the above 10. So 45 minute session coming up, and a very thorough review to follow using the above as grade criteria.

dan

Don't Dwell

The whole point of this blog is to not to dwell on the past and always look to the present/ future. I'm another $1k below EV for the 200nl day though, and I'm finding it really difficult. So, the last session will be the last set of hands/ net I post. I'm going back to not checking the cashier, at least for a week or 2........

Hands: 291

Net: $677

I'm struggling for any hands I'd play differently. Possibly calling 3bets IP 100bbs with QJs type hands to a 10% 3bettor. But that's ridiculous and results getting me down.

I'll still post hands, but the cashier and HEM session results are out for one week.

dan

Load O Stupid Sessions

I spent the weekend at Summer Sundae festival in Leicester. It was good as festivals go, better than V and Glastonbury for example........ but still 3 days in a tent, no showers and prehistoric living standards isn't my usual idea of fun.

3 Sessions- all horrible resultswise.

a) Played day of festival

Hands: 308

Net: $776

http://weaktight.com/2570584 - only surefire mistake was PF OOP 100bbs deep without a proven read of light 3betting. Pretty big mistake though.

http://weaktight.com/2570586 - I gotta say of these 3 sessions, I'm certain I've ran really really bad in all kinds of ways, as well as playing bad in other spots. With any non-board pairing card being a scarecard, I still couldn't fold this river.

http://weaktight.com/2570594 - I'm still playing pretty animaltastic postflop, and wouldn't hate this VS some regs, sensing plenty of turn weakness. Again though, without a solid enough read that he'd definitely shove said hand on the turn I should be playing a waiting game. Shoving either way was a mistake on that particular card, I have the best hand or he decided to commit with a J on the turn.

http://weaktight.com/2570598 - turn could be thin, but it's important to be betting these supposed scarecards with a wide range VS regs who I play a ton VS. On the river he mostly has a bluff catcher, and my range is more polarised with an overbet yada yada.

b) Played last night

Hands: 300

Net: $872

Some pretty bad coolers and suckouts, but on the whole to many posts in the 50-75bb region lost. So...

http://weaktight.com/2570601 - player was new to the table. It later transpired he flats t4s OOP. I should know this before 3betting him with the kind of range I should be saving for the 4bet-or-fold types. PF mistake then.

http://weaktight.com/2570602 - so hard to quantify calling this turn, it just depends on a ton of stuff.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 26.877% 26.88% 00.00% 816 0.00 { 9c9s }

Hand 1: 73.123% 73.12% 00.00% 2220 0.00 { KK+, AJs+, KQs, KTs, AKo, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AsQh, AcJh, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AsJh, KJo+, QcJh, QdJh, QhJc, QhJd, QsJh }

With some very generous bluff assumptions, I'm not doing great and what's more I can make a big mistake on the river. Sad face fold.

http://weaktight.com/2570609 - just horrible tilty PF play.

c) Played today

Hands: 385

Net: $251

http://weaktight.com/2570614 - knight boat is a really bad reg. Checking the turn is iffy in hindsight, but to someone like him a raise flop (clicked it back for Martin obv!)/ check turn/ shove river is going to look more like a bluff. He never has QQ+ either, based on a flop betsizing tell, so his calling range is JT/QJ/KJ/AJ, of which I'd expect more QJs and KJ, giving me way over 50% but gah.

http://weaktight.com/2570617 - a relative hand strength one. PF maybe a slight mistake as even with the 72 bounty a 4 person table doesn't cut it. His 3bet in the blinds was like 15% though.

I have to make a commitment decision on the flop, assuming a blank turn. After stoving, I need quite a few combinations of bluffs to be able to call down, and in hindsight they probably don't exist and I should fold flop. My read on his betsizing is such that any turn is getting shoved, and I thought plenty of KJ/ QJ etc might get played this way when in reality he's probably check shoving or check folding.

Tempting though it is to label that hand terrible, stove-wise my hand is very similar to JJ, I'm just sad I wasn't able to go with my betsizing read and make a biggish flop fold.

So my goals for forthcoming sessions:

• Keep to 4 tables, slow down on every decision, spend the time between hands analysing reads and then correct adjustments.
• Pay much more attention to betsizing on every street, use in conjunction with other things such as PSR and board texture to soulread hands and make big calls and folds.
• What does he expect me to do with my perceived range?

dan

Session 10,11,12,14

Not too many big pots in any of these sessions, but again the constant picking away with PF minraises VS nits, double barrels, 3bets, and bluff raises shows a steadily increasing cash line.

Some interesting hands and spots though:

http://weaktight.com/2543679 - snap shoved the river. I might've folded though to one of those scary 'time 4 seconds' shoves which to me basically represent villain having the nuts and wanting to enjoy the moment a little bit longer.

http://weaktight.com/2543681 - I think in spots like this on the flop you have to decide if you're going with the hand (obv am), then count the number of scary cards if you flat. Any J,Q,A makes up 12 cards and a ~25% chance of hitting on the turn, too high in my book so I just clicked it back.

http://weaktight.com/2543682 - standard/ who cares whatever, but this is a guy who just wasn't tuned into the fact that him being a PF animal meant I just wasn't 3betting him light whatsoever. That's where concentrating and actual gameflow would've saved him money, rather than just looking at my 18% SB 3bet stat or whatever it is.

Biggish folds:

http://weaktight.com/2543685 - I mean I guess he has TT exactly, but there was no reason for him to bluff 3bet this and there's a good chance he had KQ as well. I didn't fancy finding out for half the pot though and I think % equity wise against his range a fold is marginally correct.

http://weaktight.com/2543689 - call me ridiculous, I don't care. I was tuned into him enough to bet fold this on the flop. He's cally not aggressive, he doesn't have AK or KQ and everything smokes me.

Is all, dan

Some PF Spew Creeping In....

Hands: 309

Net: $373

Good news and bad news from this session. Bad news, I found myself making a couple of PF 3bets without a plan on how to react to a 4bet. Spew ensued in both cases, and when spending my 10 seconds thinking through each and every decision I need to find time to label my decisions '3bet call', '3bet/5bet' not '3bet/x' where x quickly becomes spew.

The good news is that I'm winning every small pot to compensate, and concentrating more has allowed my VPIP/PFR and 3bet to shoot up pretty high. Couple this with fighting for as many pots postflop as I can get away with, my red lines gone through the roof and thus I feel my current 'deafult' is to win and win big.

Some bluffs.

http://weaktight.com/2541619

http://weaktight.com/2541621 - villain is a fish, but I had excellent notes on how he fastplays hands and leads all pairs on the turn. Flop is hmm cold call, hit his range, check. Turn once he doesn't lead he's either folding or peeling a naked diamond, so I have to bet the turn with the intention of betting river. In a vacuum this line looks fishy, but I'm happy every street was backed up with solid reasoning.

http://weaktight.com/2541624 PF is fine imo given my MR and his relatively small 3bet. I'm just going to win the pot VS unimproved overcard hands so often. Flop minraise again, laying $26 to win $40, thus needing to work 26/66 = 39% of the time. If I take a pure 'value' range of his to be AQ+, JJ+, then of these 56 combos, 32 are unimproved AK/AQ. These hands make up 57% so I expect folds 57% of the time. If we throw in AJ (and thus TT) too, then this makes his bet folding range even wider.

Goals for session are to remember to have a plan for every PF decision so as to avoid the PF spew which has for so long now blighted my game and wealth.

dan

Session 8

Hands: 311

Net: $678

Stacked some fish and semi fish 3 or 4 times in fairly standardish spots. One fish in particular I had really good betsizing and tendency tells and was able to make some fairly big calls and folds.

http://weaktight.com/2540959

http://weaktight.com/2540963

I'll forgive carrotsnake this one http://weaktight.com/2540965 , but I'd still rather play his hand as the top of my CC range on a board with made straights possible than I would CR it, but it can't be that bad.

I beat myself up most this session for this river decision:

http://weaktight.com/2540970

He'd been fast playing everything, and also donked shoved the nuts the one time he rivered it. Given this, although he can have some 7x most of his range is Tx. Funnily enough I just stoved it, and against what I perceive as his calling or raising range given tendencies I'm exactly 50%.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 50.000% 44.44% 05.56% 24 3.00 { QcTs }

Hand 1: 50.000% 44.44% 05.56% 24 3.00 { ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 87s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T8o+, 87o }

So I hate myself less.

dan

Session 7

Hands: 436

Net: $432

Funny sort of session this, most notable for the utter fall from grace of carrotsnake. For ages people like Chris bigged him up so much that he just had this sort of aura and I always stayed out of his way. From a guy who was once easily the biggest winner on AP, he now completely and utterly sucks to the point of embarrassment.

One aspect of today that I was playing very close attention to was my PF raise sizes. Every table was full of nitty regs, and I was literally minraising the CO and winning the blinds a ton of the time. It used to be hard for me to respect 1 and a half blinds at 200nl, but seriously the edge I had through laying just $4 to win $3 and the number of folds I was getting meant I was just printing money. I realised that although the big pots are important, just how true was the saying 'look after the pennys and the pounds will look after themselves'.

On my 4max table, I had a big fish to my direct left. He was calling everything, and I adjusted by making my BTN raises 5x:

http://weaktight.com/2537596 - here's the said fish. I couldn't find a fold, though by the end I had really decent reads on his betsizing and timing and I could find a future fold in a spot like this.

http://weaktight.com/2537604 - overbet turn spot. Iketoys is another one of those formerly good AP regs overrated by Chris and thus by me for the past few years. Having said that, with the amount of draws on the turn it was a really decent spot to balance my overbets with nutted draws that I've started throwing in one the turn. God knows what he peeled the turn with and folded the river on this card. Draw?- terrible. Made hand- terrible.

I butchered a hand VS carrotsnake PF actually. He was playing so unbelievably terrible I actually thought he may have been hacked. See this hand for example http://weaktight.com/2537610

So given he's 3bet calling junk like that OOP 100bbs deep (plus doing tons of other crap) I should've just 4bet got this in pre. Sad. http://weaktight.com/2537614

Lastly and favourite hand just because a little non standard but so effective:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	MYCOMEBACK	$244.25
UTG+1	FLAMEZ13	$205.35
CO	Hero	$208
BTN	ILUCKYHATEME	$354.30
SB	SYNODIC	$524.85
BB	BIGPUTT1945	$238

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BIGPUTT1945 raises to $20, Hero calls $14

• Flop ($41, 2 players)
• 

BIGPUTT1945 bets $24, Hero raises to $48, BIGPUTT1945 folds

• Final Pot: $113

• Hero wins $110 (net +$42)
• BIGPUTT1945 lost $44

I just clicked it back on the flop, laying $48 to win $65 with just nothing he can realistically do with 2/3 of his range. It's something I'm going to work into my game a little more, balanced with value hands obviously (though the exact ratio I'm unsure of).

dan

Session 6

Hands: 332

Net: $132

I played OK for the most part, but there was one hand where I lost a lot of money OOP with no hand that I'm pretty angry about. I had a decent note on him as well that I should have utilized and saved/ earned myself an additional $200.

Then this hand: http://weaktight.com/2537291 I think on the river he has a ton of weak pairs+ turn GSs and I don't mind my jam. C'est la vie.

Hands - Notes - Adjustments

$1/$2 Ante $0.50 No Limit Holdem • 3 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

BTN	DIAMONDJIM99	$223
SB	Hero	$402
BB	RHINOFISH	$210

• Pre-Flop ($4.50, 3 players)Hero is SB
• 

DIAMONDJIM99 folds, Hero raises to $8, RHINOFISH raises to $24, Hero calls $16

• Flop ($49.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, RHINOFISH checks

• Turn ($49.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $27, RHINOFISH calls $27

• River ($103.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $350.50, RHINOFISH calls $158.50

• Final Pot: $612.50

• Hero shows
• 

• RHINOFISH shows
• 

• Hero wins $610.50 (net +$208.50)
• RHINOFISH lost $210

It's possible my PF call is marginal here OOP... he's just going to be able to make too many good turn decisions even when I peel a low flop, ie check to hit river or bet better. Maybe calling flop and leading the turn is a better bet in a spot like that, but then it depends on my having a decent guess how he'll react to a line like that with different hands.

But anyway, I flop a set. Leading is an option, but I only need 2 steets to get the money in anyway. My turn bet appears small at first glance, however I felt something like $39 would blow away a marginal pair hand with an implied river shove. In hindsite, I don't think this is true and I should've bet more to make it harder for him to fold the river. By the river, I just think he has a weak K a lot and isn't about to fold it (he's a bad splashy reg).

What can I learn from this hand about this opponent?

Note:

3bet me BvB PF with K5o

Adjustment:

Assuming he's 3betting a linearly similar range in this spot (not a great assumption) I should stop opening hands that can't stand a 3bet. Small and mid pocket pairs 100bbs I should just straight raise and 4bet jam (the expectation of picking up the pot in this spot is higher than having him 3bet/5bet ATo). AQ, AJs and KQ I can flat OOP and have a decent read on him postflop, thus:

Note:

Didn't cbet weak top pair on dry board in 3bet pot.

Adjustment:

Married to his propensity to 3bet junk in some spots, I can start check jamming a much wider range when he does cbet. If he's checking k5 there, he's probably the type to 3bet ATo and check AJ3. I'm not saying I should check jam AJ3, but say BTN vs CO he fires a J74ss board then my KQ becomes a snap jam 100bbs. One further point to make is that I'd rather he 3bet me larger and have a smaller PSR postflop if this is to be my plan, so perhaps I can be making it 4x CO vs his BTN, similar to BvB to make my play more viable.

dan

Session 5

Hands: 292

Net: $642

I played pretty well in this session, but mostly it was just my opponents making pretty big mistakes, while I made only a few small ones.

http://weaktight.com/2536392 - he needs to bet much bigger on the turn, and then not completely butcher the river.

http://weaktight.com/2536394 - small PF adjustment here. Both the blinds kept having auto fold on in the blinds, so minraising was making a huge exploitation of this. One of them actually put autofold on the flop I noticed late on, so in future VS him I'm going to be min cbetting my bluffs.

I considered raising the turn, but felt I'd have more information as to whether to stack or not based on his river betsizing. 4 combos of q9 in his range, 3 combos of 22 and 1 combo of 99 = 8 combos that beat me VS a smaller number of worse flush combos. By the river though his hand is face up.

http://weaktight.com/2536405 wasn't sure about the turn call here, but I needed 25% equity and with a few combos of KQ and AQ I have it. Throw in some implied odds (that hopefully outweigh the reverse implied odds of a hand like KQ given I'll make better decisions) and I think it's fine. PF, he was 17/8 after 100 hands so I just wasn't about to get it in to a 3x raise and 3x 3bet.

Session 3+4

Hands: 675

Net: $170

A key part of my analysis from this point on will be to analyse hands from my opponents point of view, so that I can better identify mistakes.

http://weaktight.com/2536110 -I used to do this in his shoes. These days though the sure sign of a bad reg is one who 4bet folds the SB... it just doesn't happen, and he shouldn't perceive any FE and against my 4bet call range he's just annihilated.

http://weaktight.com/2536112 - pretty sad that I got bluffed here, especially with the mass of reads I had on the guy at the time from just a smallish amount of hands. Basically I had previously seen him bet small with the nuts and check top pair type hands after taking his time. And he's a bluffy So, he's soooo polarised here when he snap bets every street without even thinking. Sad I didn't/ couldn't call, and should've gone with my read.

http://weaktight.com/2536115 - I had a few of these that really leaked money. I feel like I get flatted OOP a fair amount, and need to be 3betting more playable hands quite simply.

http://weaktight.com/2536118 - this seems spewy, but I went with my assumptions. He'd 3bet a couple of times of just 20 hands. It's a 72 table, he gave the $27 betsize tell! 32 of his combinations make up either AK or 72, with 18 making QQ+. Given this, I felt I could play fairly perfectly postflop given his less than 100bb stack. With the dead money, I can CR this and fold out/ have shove AK and 72 enough of the time and with enough equity to show a profit I'm sure if I did the maths.

dan

Next Session Review

Hands: 355

Net: $331

Quite a few notes/ adjustments I want to run through first.

Note: Some guy stabbed an ace hi turn OOP after CC blinds, GU river.

Adjustment: We can check back lighter on the flop and call turn and confidently fold the river. So, for example sometimes on the flop I hate to check back 2nd pair when I'm going to make decisions when faced with a turn and river lead. VS this guy, check back flop 3rd pair, 2nd pair etc is fine as my turn and river decisions are going to be much better.

Note: Some guy donk betted/ 3bet all in KJdd on J63hh 3way for 100bbs. Pretty terrible.

Adjustment: Until further notice, assume all donks are top pair+. Fold to them and let him save your cbet. Happily raise any TPTK+ for value.

Note: Guy flatted KQhh OOP facing a BvB 3bet, didn't stab A72 x x and we checked down and I won with Q7.

Adjustment: Possible he thought he had showdown value, but in general I should be less concerned with getting bluffed if I check the flop with marginal showdown value. If I check Q7 again there, I can fold turn.

As for some hands:

http://weaktight.com/2535090

Now this hand all hinges on his PF, flop, and turn range. I bet $32 into $40, thus needing to work 32/(32+40) = 44% of the time. So, I need 44% of his range to be 66-99 that will fold.

66-99 make up 1.8% of hands.

AQ, KQ, QJs, TT, half combos of 44,55 make up 3.6% of hands.

So I'm getting a fold 1.8/1.8+(3.6) = 33% of the time.

This is assuming that he ALWAYS a) calls these in the SB (he's a nit, maybe not) and ALWAYS calls the flop with a player to act. I think in actual fact, 66-99 only makes up half of the 1.8 based on tendencies, meaning I'm only getting a fold 0.9/0.9+3.6 = 20% of the time.

I have some equity obviously, but basically it was just a bad bet and I should be barreling someone like SUFFER much less and not rewarding his nittiness.

http://weaktight.com/2535082

The above hand is obviously a cooler at first glance, but then I started to worry about his actual river calling range. I think AJ and 22 are reasonable, although I can't put any worse flushes in there given his PF nittiness.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 80.000% 80.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 8d6d }

Hand 1: 20.000% 20.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { 22, AJs, KdQd, QdTd, Td9d, AJo }

So I'm 80% against a calling range, which actually surprised me quite a lot. Coolerville.

Session Thoughts

Hands: 447

Won: $572

Really enjoyed this session, and not just because I won 2/3 flips. I decided to scrap all my old notes and stats on players and start again from scratch, forcing myself to pay constant attention to my opponent's play on all streets and develop new reads and notes. What I found enjoyable was then using those notes to come up with counter strategies.

I played 3 tables of 6 max and 1 table of HU VS this leggo member guy GeorgeStag.

Ok because I was concentrating I was actually able to think this hand through PF.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	GEORGESTAGG	$385.85
BB	Hero	$480.45

• Pre-Flop ($3, 2 players)Hero is BB
• 

GEORGESTAGG raises to $6, Hero raises to $24, GEORGESTAGG raises to $68, Hero calls $44

• Flop ($136, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, GEORGESTAGG bets $64, Hero raises to $152, GEORGESTAGG calls $88

• Turn ($440, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $260.45, GEORGESTAGG folds

• Final Pot: $700.45

• Hero wins $699.70 (net +$219.25)
• GEORGESTAGG lost $220

I had been 3betting a fair amount with plenty of folds. So, the first adjustment was to continue to 3bet until something changed. The first time he eventually 3bet, I 4bet K8s and he folded. 3 hands later, this happened and I felt like Monkey See Monkey do was in action, completely positive that with the way gameflow etc had gone down that this was a bluff. This deep (he's polarised, and with my 2 ace blockers), and with the reads listed above, I think I'd go as far to say that 5betting AA would be absolutely horrible. That's not to say I wouldn't have snap done it this morning though and been terribly shocked at his snap fold. Postflop is somewhat standard, but I make the CR really really small to allow the possibility of a cheap bluff. I didn't know that he knew I was Mr Leggo Grog at this point, but it obviously helped get a flop peel before he folded turn.

Soon afterwards I play this hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	GEORGESTAGG	$201
BB	Hero	$698.70

• Pre-Flop ($3, 2 players)Hero is BB
• 

GEORGESTAGG raises to $6, Hero calls $4

• Flop ($12, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, GEORGESTAGG bets $10, Hero raises to $31, GEORGESTAGG calls $21

• Turn ($74, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $39, GEORGESTAGG calls $39

• River ($152, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, GEORGESTAGG checks

• Final Pot: $152

• GEORGESTAGG shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• GEORGESTAGG wins $151.25 (net +$75.25)
• Hero lost $76

I didn't 3bet as I wasn't in the mood for calling a 4bet (unneccessary given the way the previous hand had gone down, time to sit back and let him make mistakes), but mainly because I wanted to start a CRing dynamic, and this is the perfect hand for it. On the turn, I wasn't loving to continue, but my basic rule of thumb is to bet again in these spots when I pick up equity, and its fairly possible he folds some middling pocket pair. I think I have to give up the river, but it's possible I could hero call a 3 or a 4 for example.

So, adjustment/ balancing time.... I think he's going to start respecting my CRs less. My short term gameplan becomes flatting broadway hands and CRing them (chronological order).

http://weaktight.com/2534797- the flop in this hand is obviously thin, and I much prefer a further read that he'd bet call a worse 9 or lower pair on this board. As it was with the backdoor NFD as well, firstly I thought it'd be great to showdown a CR in this spot, and secondly I felt I could play pretty well even OOP on different turn cards. He's going to be flatting KJ etc, maybe even ace hi that I reverse dominate. As it was, on this particular turn card it smashes my perceived range and so when he bets I have to fold.

http://weaktight.com/2534794 - then a sad fold

http://weaktight.com/2534795 - and another *maybe he's just not adjusting to my CRs at all, and cbetting too much.

Then I played this hand, he'd previously donk folded a 467ss flop.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	Hero	$411.95
BB	GEORGESTAGG	$455.85

• Pre-Flop ($3, 2 players)Hero is SB
• 

Hero raises to $6, GEORGESTAGG calls $4

• Flop ($12, 2 players)
• 

GEORGESTAGG bets $10, Hero calls $10

• Turn ($32, 2 players)
• 

GEORGESTAGG bets $23, Hero calls $23

• River ($78, 2 players)
• 

GEORGESTAGG checks, Hero bets $63, GEORGESTAGG folds

• Final Pot: $141

• Hero wins $140.25 (net +$38.25)
• GEORGESTAGG lost $39

I decide not to raise at any point as I have such decent relative showdown value VS T9, 76 etc. So, the river is obviously a bad card in terms of my showdown value, but it makes my life much easier when he checks and waves the flag of 'I has a 9 pls check'. $63 bluff elicited a 90% timebank fold, so maybe I could have got away with $61 and a 95% timebank fold. I can obviously be value betting a TON of stuff.

Other notes and planned adjustments

http://weaktight.com/2534818 - here he showed himself capable of value betting relatively thin (relative to most 200nl guys). What's the adjustment? Bluff catch less in spots like these, and bluff raise the times he's unlikely to have the top of his range. I mentally noted this adjustment at the time, but no hands came up where it was utilized.

Some 6max hands

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • AbsolutePoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	THEFLOW	$203
UTG+1	SYNODIC	$218.90
CO	Hero	$400
BTN	CUBBIEBLUE10	$414.80
SB	GEORGESTAGG	$377.35
BB	RHINOFISH	$248.40

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

THEFLOW raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $21, 3 folds, THEFLOW calls $14

• Flop ($45, 2 players)
• 

THEFLOW bets $24, Hero calls $24

• Turn ($93, 2 players)
• 

THEFLOW checks, Hero bets $30, THEFLOW goes all-in $158, Hero calls $128

• River ($409, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $409

• THEFLOW shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• Hero wins $406 (net +$203)
• THEFLOW lost $203

So preflop.... haven't played this guy for a bit, scrapped all my notes, time to create a new dynamic. He calls, which is probably his only mistake the whole hand (edit, not true, I hate the turn shove), but TBH a pretty big one VS me.

On the flop, I'm completely torn about whether to bet or not. If I bet then I'm never folding and lose more money VS slowplayed stuff, while checking allows me to rep AK and have him barrel me off it. In the end, I decide to make an assumption and stick with it, with that assuption being that JJ+ is getting 4bet, and he may not CR 99 and TT, so bet stacking off it was.

As it was, he led into me. Turn is the nuts, and I need a betsize. Assumption time again, firstly I don't think he puts me on the nuts. Secondly, I think that he'd expect me to bet bigger with the 'nuts' (with the nuts in his eyes being JJ+) on this drawy a board. So, $30 means I rep extremely little and in his eyes probably makes it most likely that I'm just completely FOS. I don't like his turn ship, I'm giving him great odds and he has showdown value, and I'm simply never bet calling worse. Plus, the PSR is so big that getting it wrong here is a pretty big mistake.

All in all, 8/10 for the session.

Dan (btw I think I might post this on leggo, seems a waste otherwise and I'm overdue a blog).