Hands: 355
Net: $331
Quite a few notes/ adjustments I want to run through first.
Note: Some guy stabbed an ace hi turn OOP after CC blinds, GU river.
Adjustment: We can check back lighter on the flop and call turn and confidently fold the river. So, for example sometimes on the flop I hate to check back 2nd pair when I'm going to make decisions when faced with a turn and river lead. VS this guy, check back flop 3rd pair, 2nd pair etc is fine as my turn and river decisions are going to be much better.
Note: Some guy donk betted/ 3bet all in KJdd on J63hh 3way for 100bbs. Pretty terrible.
Adjustment: Until further notice, assume all donks are top pair+. Fold to them and let him save your cbet. Happily raise any TPTK+ for value.
Note: Guy flatted KQhh OOP facing a BvB 3bet, didn't stab A72 x x and we checked down and I won with Q7.
Adjustment: Possible he thought he had showdown value, but in general I should be less concerned with getting bluffed if I check the flop with marginal showdown value. If I check Q7 again there, I can fold turn.
As for some hands:
Now this hand all hinges on his PF, flop, and turn range. I bet $32 into $40, thus needing to work 32/(32+40) = 44% of the time. So, I need 44% of his range to be 66-99 that will fold.
66-99 make up 1.8% of hands.
AQ, KQ, QJs, TT, half combos of 44,55 make up 3.6% of hands.
So I'm getting a fold 1.8/1.8+(3.6) = 33% of the time.
This is assuming that he ALWAYS a) calls these in the SB (he's a nit, maybe not) and ALWAYS calls the flop with a player to act. I think in actual fact, 66-99 only makes up half of the 1.8 based on tendencies, meaning I'm only getting a fold 0.9/0.9+3.6 = 20% of the time.
I have some equity obviously, but basically it was just a bad bet and I should be barreling someone like SUFFER much less and not rewarding his nittiness.
The above hand is obviously a cooler at first glance, but then I started to worry about his actual river calling range. I think AJ and 22 are reasonable, although I can't put any worse flushes in there given his PF nittiness.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.000% 80.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 8d6d }
Hand 1: 20.000% 20.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { 22, AJs, KdQd, QdTd, Td9d, AJo }
So I'm 80% against a calling range, which actually surprised me quite a lot. Coolerville.
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