Balanced but unbalanced

A few of you will know I've been putting a ton of work into being balanced in all spots as of late. I'm nowhere near there, but the jist of what I'm trying to do when I'm in a spot is to ensure that I could've certainly got to that spot x% of the time with a variety of hands, from pure nuts to missed draws to pure air, etc.

This means sometimes taking a line that may seem imperfect in a vacuum, but as part of an overall gameplan means I end up with unexpected hands in spots where my range would otherwise be 'face up'.

I actually believe that all the work Sauce puts into his game comes down to this. Read some of his old video threads to see what I mean. For example, you hold 33 OOP on J63r, you cbet and turn is a J. In this spot you have to give up your bluffs for the most part, but most regs would just fire again. Given you don't want to be giving up every single time the board pairs, I think there's almost no need to have a betting range at all in this spot.

Check call turn, check raise river and hey you've suddenly found a solution to all those spots where you hold 99 here with no clue what to do as your hand is so 'face up'.

Where I've been falling down in balancing the last 3 days is in my PF looseness. Basically, it's no good me 3betting J8s in the BB, playing it in the exact same manner as AA on a Ten hi board....... when my 3bet in the BB is 11 fucking %. My UTg raises have hit 21% again, and in the last 5000 hands my UTG+1 3bet has hit 20%!

So frequency wise, I'm currently the opposite of balanced. This is just a long winded way of saying that postflop everything is fine right now, but I think my image is the worst it's ever been right now and thus my PF stuff is meaning I always have so many more bluffs than value right now.

Is all.

Updaaaaate

No-one likes an update filled with one outers. It's fortunate I know this, or you'd all be gasping at the injustices until the cows come home.

I think I sucked until the turning point of the graph, where a few choice words from a leggo coach meant things have really clicked for me. Apart from the downswingy part which was 4am and tired and won't be repeated I've been playing the best I ever have.

So although I'm running horribly in all in EV at the moment, at least it's manifesting itself in terms of break even sessions rather than heavy losing ones.

Is all really, I'm stuck quite a bit today actually so going to sleep then win it back PROVIDING SOMETHING ANYTHING HOLDSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	Strongharibo	$1,183.70
UTG+1	Renegade Snares	$400
CO	Hero	$453
BTN	musclesuperstar	$490.30
SB	OscarB1	$496
BB	losttotheriver	$415.20

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

2 folds, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, OscarB1 calls $10, 1 fold

• Flop ($28, 2 players)
• 

OscarB1 bets $24, Hero raises to $68, OscarB1 calls $44

• Turn ($164, 2 players)
• 

OscarB1 bets $110, Hero goes all-in $373, OscarB1 calls $263

• River ($910, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $910

• Hero shows
• 

• OscarB1 shows
• 

• OscarB1 wins $907 (net +$454)
• Hero lost $453

Current Thoughts

So I'm just about getting used to the FT games. Overall vs UB, I'd say the following:

• The average regs are of roughly the same standard. Obviously they take some working out, but the exercise has been good for me in that I would never have spent this amount of time looking at UB regs.... with Dodgy's help I feel I have a good grip of most reg's games, especially the PF stuff which is of massive importance obv.
• There are plenty more fish on FTP. And I mean plenty more. And they buy in full! And they rebuy!
• The very good FTP regs are much better than the very good UB regs. As in, you get some really sick 5-10 types dropping down to 400nl on FT, whereas on UB there's nobody to really strike the fear of god into you. Having Oldjude, Moi, UMDTennis occassionally dropping down is not something you have to worry about on UB.

My game is definitely in a state of flux at the moment. While I said that the average regs are of roughly the same standard, they are definitely more aggressive on the whole. In some games, I've felt like that the plan should literally just be to sit back and wait for hands.

That last sentence poses a big problem for me though. The problem is that sitting back and waiting for hands does not come naturally to me. At the same time though, when it's literally impossible to flat anything in the CO or even the BTN because of the squeezing threat then by playing too loose and then folding you are truly burning money.

In the last 10k hands on FT, my red line has gone negative for the first time in months. This is, basically, function of getting owned PF. The more splashy regs will flat A2s OTB sure, but 'make up for it' by making spewy plays like flatting the squeeze and jamming flops. Because the aggressions level is lso much greater on FT, my tendency to flat tons of junk OTB is costing me a lot of money.

Postflop, the aggression level has forced me into a weak passive corner of 'waiting for hands'. I don't think that in of itself this is a winning form of poker, even in these games. Too often I've been giving up with the initiative, or rolling over to cbets and double barrels. The increased aggression means that I should be winning more and bigger non showdown pots, not less.

Intuitively having realised this, I think that the answer in general terms is to be much tighter PF...... and then much more aggressive and tricky postflop than I have been.

So I'm looking to be something like 19/16. I don't have exact ranges mapped out, but that's a task for tomorrow. In general though I'll flat much less, open EP much tighter, and always always have a plan to win postflop once I'm passed my commitment threshold for the hand.

Also in general terms, I've been getting crushed the times I'm flatting raises OOP. My general goal in postflop poker should be looking at ways to win the hand without showdown, avoid reverse equity spots through early folds, and be extremely cautious in spots without the initiative and without the nuts.

The spots of say, cbetting QJ on q64ss and getting raised happen often enough, and I should have a plan to deal with it that does not involve spaz clicking call..... folding to the raise, moving back a step to the cbet, or back a step further to preflop are all viable options, whereas allowing villain to control frequencies and force me into bigger and bigger mistakes an unknown % of the time is the definition of losing poker.

Grade subjects for next session.

• VPIP/PFR around 19/16
• Lets see examples of early flop folds
• Red line awareness, so increased aggression postflop
• Soulread based on betsizing

Review to follow based on the above......

dan

Application

And pressing the button corresponding to what my brain wants to do.... are big problems right now. I don't think I've heard other people talk about it, so I guess it might just be me.

I keep doing stupid things for the sake of it, going for a CR when a bet would suffice, cbetting low boards with no equity, flatting AA PF all the time.

Please God, I promise I'll really try, just let me play a standard 45 minute session where I follow the advice I would otherwise dispense if I were reading it in a forum........

Yesterday.....

I didn't end up making a video yesterday..... first of all I tried, but played like 2 minutes before I realised I was far too tired again. Important step for me to realise this and act on it so early, so please with that.

I tried again later on after a sleep, this vid went better but I stopped after 30 minutes as I wasn't feeling very confident/ slightly tired. I'll post the more interesting hands though:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 2 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

SB	Wisdom9	$446
BB	Hero	$404

• Pre-Flop ($6, 2 players)Hero is BB
• 

Wisdom9 raises to $8, Hero calls $4

• Flop ($16, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $10, Wisdom9 raises to $32, Hero calls $22

• Turn ($80, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, Wisdom9 bets $60, Hero raises to $144, Wisdom9 goes all-in $406, Hero calls $220

• River ($850, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $850

• Wisdom9 shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• Hero wins $807.50 (net +$403.50)
• Wisdom9 collects $42 (net -$404)

The above had a few important features, one was the 'fold to cbet' stat which I use really often now. I use it because converges relatively quickly, and because I know my own fold to cbet stat I can compare the two and infer his range and also his likely tendencies.

This guy had folded to 1/10 cbets, with a 23/18 vpip I knew that in a lot of spots he would have a weak range, and thus be the type to make frequent floats/ moves to compensate for that.

I'm OOP here, and decide to lead into him. I do so as I don't want it to get checked through, but also because the spaz factor associated with leading gives me even more license to call down here or else get all in for value. On the flop I was planning to call the raise, then call down on any cards (except maybe very low ones).

His betsize on the turn though seemed like he was trying to fold out my perceived GSs, straight draws, and flush draws. This is always your perceived range when you donk, so I decide to put in a raise for maxium FOS'ness.

$2/$4 Ante $0.75 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	Hero	$1,201.05
UTG+1	ApobatesRacer	$904.50
CO	suzetel	$504.20
BTN	zachucsb	$3,584
SB	bischi74	$175.60
BB	braddk	$687.30

• Pre-Flop ($10.50, 6 players)Hero is UTG
• 

Hero raises to $12, ApobatesRacer raises to $40, 4 folds, Hero calls $28

• Flop ($90.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero checks, ApobatesRacer bets $64, Hero raises to $168, ApobatesRacer calls $104

• Turn ($426.50, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $244, ApobatesRacer folds

• Final Pot: $670.50

• Hero wins $667.50 (net +$214.75)
• ApobatesRacer lost $208.75

Villain in this hand is Irishman from Leggo. Not too scientific, but I had a sudden blink moment that he'd fold KK, AA to me on this board to a flop raise and turn barrel. The possible made straight, the 3 likely sets, the 2 pair combos, and my 6 likely outs make this a good spot VS someone foldy like he is. I think he makes a mistake calling the flop folding turn though, fold flop or call down I'm clearly always betting the turn......... the turn betsize is good, basically leaves a 1/2 pot PSR on the river so the implied threat is huge.

Session 10 coming up........ up bright and early at 8.15am so hopefully I can score my performance at least 8/10.

dan

Time to invoke the number 1 cure-all

So performance has been badly lacking. It hit a massive low last night when I started playing at 2.30am, incredibly tired and without reviewing hands, getting into the mode of thinking about poker etc. I played exceptionally badly, like. megafish badly, no joke.

What always has worked in turning around my performance levels in the past has been to make a video. Similar to Dodgy's I'll upload it, but don't worry about watching it. I do know I'm going to be on my A game doing it though.

Technical Goals:

Don't 4bet light for value

Soulread based on betsizing, and act upon it

Positionally aware

Don't lose 100bbs easily

Cumulative Performance

So, instead of graphing my winnings, I've instead decided to graph my performance. This works on the following system:

7.5 out of 10 in a session is my benchmark. Anything above 7.5 I've played well, anything below I've played badly. I take an index of each session, where (session score- 7.5) = session index. I then cumulatise this session index to create a running performance graph.

As you can see, I've dropped into the red for the month by virtue of the 5.5 score awarded for the last session. You can see that since the first session, my peformance levels plateaued and are now downswinging pretty hard. The goal of the month then is to get this graph as high as possible, and then focus month after month on beating my previous performance levels.

So being in the red means I'm having a bad month.

I'll briefly explain why I'm so upset with the last session, ie why I awarded myself 5.5.

I broke two of current hot potato topics....... these are quit the PF spew, and soulread based on betsizing.

Hand 1: http://weaktight.com/2858555 - yeah yeah, standard so what. NO. From what I knew of him he's quite straightforward. He's definitely never 3bet/5betting smaller pairs, and probably not AQ either. What's more I'm IP, and can play much much better than he can postflop.

I've scrawled this on my wall, and needs remembering. 'There is no edge from light 4bets for value'. Quite the F opposite in fact. What makes me so mad is that my thought process was 'I dont wanna see a flop with TT'. WTF! You have a near premium hand, IP, in a big pot, with a player infinitely worse than you postflop, but you decide to 'get the hand over with' like something Phil **** Laak would do.

Hand 2: http://weaktight.com/2858558 - you know I wouldn't be too sad to stack here. I'd call it a randomiser, fold KK maybe call down here. My plan on the flop was to call, see a blank, then call call, or see a flush card and fold turn or river.

Hurrah though, we have a villain who, drunk on lust for the power of his hand, TELLS ME WHAT HIS HAND IS. We have a guy who, rather than think 'ah, say I had AJcc here, what betsize would I make on the turn, hmm I guess about 220 to leave room for a river shove' instead has a thought process of 'I has the nuts and I want him to shove this, and omg what a big pot I gots to protect my hand'.

So he's without doubt massively unbalanced in making this bet. He might as well have sent me a fucking email with an attached copy of his current fucking screenshot.

And I shove, because fuck knows why.

I was pretty calm at the start of this blog, writing this has got me pretty mad though!

CURRENT TECHNICAL GOALS

• Soulread hands, and act on that soulread, based on betsizing in conjunction with the board texture and the PSR
• Stop the PF spew for value, flat and see flops.

One more session today before I go pick Nic up. Hopefully that graph goes in the right direction.............

dan

November Session 3

Hard to quantify this session, on the one hand while playing it I felt I was doing ok, on the other hand absolutely nothing came off.

Knowing how I'm perceived at the moment is a problem. On the one hand my image should be muck, on the other my cbet % is pretty low and I should be getting more respect.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	NhocCon23	$324.90
UTG+1	spielb	$735.10
CO	Hero	$414.60
BTN	porktom	$430.70
SB	fightingnuns	$656.60
BB	Sandahfs	$548.50

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

2 folds, Hero raises to $10, porktom calls $10, 2 folds

• Flop ($26, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $20, porktom calls $20

• Turn ($66, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $52, porktom calls $52

• River ($170, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $133, porktom calls $133

• Final Pot: $436

• Hero shows
• 

• porktom shows
• 

• porktom wins $433 (net +$218)
• Hero lost $215

In this hand I make a fairly rare decision to triple barrel with zero equity. Reasons obviously that AK, QQ, JJ and usually TT 3bet, only 2 combos of QJs and the 2 combos of JTs may find a fold. As I say though, nothing came off.

I don't think I did too much wrong. One thing I would say is that I wished I trusted my spider instincts more..... on the river especially my conscious brain is saying 'scary board, scary river, bluff!' whereas my *blink* is saying nah don't try this. My blink always wins.

It begged me to give up the river here.........

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • FullTiltPoker

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	fightingnuns	$648.60
UTG+1	need_a_nerd	$346
CO	NhocCon23	$466.40
BTN	spielb	$639.10
SB	Hero	$400
BB	porktom	$656.70

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is SB
• 

2 folds, NhocCon23 calls $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, porktom checks

• Flop ($12, 3 players)
• 

Hero bets $9, porktom calls $9, NhocCon23 calls $9

• Turn ($39, 3 players)
• 

Hero bets $62, porktom folds, NhocCon23 calls $62

• River ($163, 2 players)
• 

Hero bets $122, NhocCon23 calls $122

• Final Pot: $407

• NhocCon23 shows
• 

• Hero shows
• 

• NhocCon23 wins $404 (net +$207)
• Hero lost $197
• porktom lost $13

All in all, I give the session performance 6.5/10.

Goals this session are to win those 200bb pots, be positionally aware, and to keep pots small unless planning to always win them.

dan