Wednesday 20 October 2010

In this blog I bluff fish

Discussed this with dodgy today, and loads of spots seemed to come up. All these hands are from today's sessions.........

http://weaktight.com/2825693 - villain 82/5 after 100 hands, peeled flops extremely wide so a spot similar to Ian's last one where I perhaps could've shut down on the flop. VS a fish with a wide PF and flop calling range, with all the draws and GSs, a triple is a must.

http://weaktight.com/2825697 - another fish, more standard probably.

http://weaktight.com/2825700 - same 82/5 guy as before.

http://weaktight.com/2825704 - 62/15, again probably standard, but I just know in my weak days of Feb2010 or whenever I'd have the 'dont bluff fish' mantra and shut down flop.

http://weaktight.com/2825708 - quite cool this one. GeorgeStag is a reg/ leggo member, the other guy is a 48/23 fish on whom I have a read bets hands he shouldn't IP, ie any pair. Flop float standard this deep, and depending on all the permutations was planning on winning this hand at some point when I can apply this much pressure.

http://weaktight.com/2825711 - 62/15 fish. Flop is a mistype i thought the pot was $28, but when he raises I'm calling to check down or fold low cards, or check shove the turn when something higher than a 7 turns. Just one of those 'he has a 5 so be it' spots, but so often 'cos he's clueless he has like 33 or something here with no concept of needing a reason to bet.

http://weaktight.com/2825713 - this one worked but was definitely misplayed technically.... I had a blink moment on the turn that he was bluffing, but nothing concrete to back it up and no equity and I wish I'd got my ass handed to me here.

http://weaktight.com/2825722- really bad spot for it (this guys 45/2 or something), reason being he either has a Q or bluffing a whole ton with all the GSs and oesds. So I'd call with like Khi+, but there's no need for me to raise so big as a bluff, like a minraise with no SD value would be absolutely fine. So this is what not to do.

http://weaktight.com/2825716 - more of a fishy reg, the best I can say is that he did at least time on this so I think the success % is pretty good when you know someone to be a flop and turn peeler

On the note of that last hand, an important thing to understand is some regs at 400nl are very good at not calling turns to fold rivers in spots where they expect you to be firing the river after they call the turn, example flop 974, you cbet and turn is a K, you bet again and good 400nl reg calls turn, you're FE on the river is very low but I'd obviously bet TT plus for value. I kind of know this instinctively and I think the stats would back me up.

Based on the Jungleman part of the conversation I had with Martin today, perhaps investing in some HHs for flop turn river fold %s might not be such a bad idea.

dan

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