Pokerstars

So.........

After a good start, I've ~ broken even over 15k hands on 200nl on Stars. Let's look at some reasons why and what I can do about them.

Getting used to 12 tabling and the software - a bit of a crap excuse this one. I got used to it pretty quickly, and I feel I can 12 table pretty comfortably and actually feel more like 16 tabling if only my monitor was bigger.

Early spew - as I'm starting the session and trying to test the waters of the regs I'm playing, I really need to not start off on a note like this: http://weaktight.com/3119395 (kudos though to him resisting the doubtless urge to shove the turn). Basically, regardless of the perceived EV of the above move and moves like it, they're probably not necessary to grind out a 3ptbb winrate and the external factors they involve (minor tilt etc) surely cancel them out.

Not trusting my gut enough - hard to find specific examples. They usually involve things like pot size bets on the flush river 3way with my particular flush being the 6hi variety and I override my instincts on the flimsy basis that calling wouldn't make me look stupid. I should basically be taking pride in doing what I think is right, not what I could justify to Chris if showed him the hand. Good example here, everything came together (betsize, timing, player type, board texture, tendencies) that I knew I was crushed on the turn http://weaktight.com/3119415 . Seems ridiculous espec with the redraw, but honestly when I get a really strong feeling both with big folds and big calls I just think it's not often wrong.

Not cbetting! - this has somehow crept in again. I think if anything it's more of a mistake on Stars where everyone seems so much more foldy, possibly due to the mass tabling thing. I spotted this a month or so ago, my cbet had dropped to like 52% when more like 75% at these levels is much more optimal. I looked at my month on Stars and it'd hit 54% again! While I'm on this subject, the villain above WCGRider plays 24 tables, 32/27, cbets everything and triple barrels and is the biggest winner......... impressive, and instructive.

Over-reliance on HUD? - Me and Dodgeball have a sort of verbal tic going on, where every other sentence we say 'back when I did really well and won all the money I used to do X Y Z blah blah blah ' (nice to reminisce). Well here's another one, back when I won all the money I used to scoff at over reliance on HUD stats and was utterly convinced that over-reliance on them led to laziness in making actual notes, deriving things from these notes, and being aware of gameflow.

Reading Samo's blog has reminded me of this, and it's annoying me that my default action when facing a cbet is not to think in a poker fashion, but instead to check his cbet stat. Similarly when facing 3bets etc I think a lot of mistakes are made.

For example, I might play with a guy for 60 minutes, not a peep out of him, then get 3bet and decide on the basis of his 10% BTN 3bet to 4bet call 99 or whatever. Well, maybe it is 10% OTB overall, but TODAY, perhaps VS specifically ME because of how he's reacting to my tendencies, or perhaps because TODAY he's mixing it up, or TODAY he's playing a bunch more tables, I should be able to infer his actual % as something more like 4%.

This brings me onto something I should really try with the all the 20 tablers going around. Namely, extreme gear changes ala super system (btw, this is something I'm utterly convinced GuiGui has done, I can remember the nights involved!). How this would work is something like 50% of sessions have a 16% BTN 3betting range, and 50% of sessions have a 4% range. I'm new enough on there that my stats would converge at 8%, and you can imagine how my opponent's perceiving this 8% VS an actual 16% or an actual 4% would be brilliant in both regards.

Hmm, so anyway, I've ditched all stats except vpip/pfr/3bet/donk bet (good for fish mostly) / CR flop. Although this might not be going quite far enough, I'm just going to make sure I'm basing decisions not exclusively on the stats but also the situation, players to act behind, recent history, suspected tilt, timing...... all those things that put together build a thoroughly better picture of his range than 'hmmm 6% BTN 3bet'.

Is all, hope everyone is well.

Dan