I just want to kind of think aloud re PF range stuff, and specifically the concept of 'spreading ranges too thin'. If that even is a concept.......
Specifically, I'm talking about reacting to 3bets. If we fight back, there's only two ways we can do so: 4betting and flatting the 3bet.
Ok situation is: we open BTN, 8% BB 3bettor 3bets us.........
Standard flatting range of 7.8%: 99-66,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo-AJo,KQo
Value 4betting range of 3.0%: JJ+,AKs,AKo
Bluff 4betting range 3.0%: ATs-A8s,A5s-A2s,ATo
This means that when we open 50% of hands OTB, we're folding 72.4% of the time. Slightly more than necessary to stop a 3bet being auto profitable but whatever, we don't expect it to be exploited and if it is then we can do something about it by opening less or whatever.
Now, I've come to hate 4betting with a passion. I never really liked it, and feel that as time has gone on it's become even more of a zero sum game at best. Basically in a vacuum without reads on a player it's really difficult to 4bet bluff, as it only needs a tiny % of a pure bluff range on their part to make a 4bet unprofitable, and is in any case super high variance. (ie, 4betting ATo and getting T9s shoved on you really really sucks).
4betting must've been really useful back when 3betting was just getting a little old. Now, everyone knows that everyone 4bet bluffs etc etc, and I guess my argument mainly is that countering light 4bets is largely solved through appropriate 3bet/5betting, and is thus either reciprocally neutral EV or slightly on the side of the original 3bettor.
Just to ramble some more, I think that we basically all 4bet because everyone else does it, but we all know in our hearts there's no edge there. There's just, no.......... strategy to it, or tricks, or anything deep and meaningful that allows you to have better frequencies or adjust better to than anyone else. We do it just to at least keep pace with everyone else.
So I'm getting out of this game. In fact, I already have. I'm flatting 3bets with all of my continuing range.................
Disadvantages: I can no longer fight back with, say A9o. I don't care though, because as I've already said I think the actual 4bet is bang in the middle of neutral EV, sometimes slightly + EV and sometimes - EV.
Advantages: Really outweight the disadvantages a mon avis. Firstly, I'm playing really big pots, sometimes Ip, with a much stronger range than my opponent. I've won so many 200bb pots this month flatting AA-JJ, even AK VS junky hands like J9 that flop 977 and can't fold.
So that's the advantage in a vacuum. Over the slightly longer term, it should mean I'm able to flat a ton more stuff and be able to bluff more. So, the hands that I lose in fighting back like A9o, I gain in being able to flat 75s and bluff raise with a ton more credibility.
And it's much lower variance (which has other benefits including tilting less, less self doubt etc). And there's a discernable postflop edge. And I don't really see how people are going to exploit it. Answers on a postcard or in this blog, but honestly I'm utterly convinced anyway and I think that more of us just do it because everyone else does, than would care to admit.
Some of these hands might've had the same result to a clean 4bet, but you can clearly see that most of them would've resulted in a PF fold.
Is all, Dan
11 comments:
What are your plans for Vegas that you need to take out 6k already?!
Too tired to think about the startegy stuff, but I can assure you I don't 4bet because "everyone else does it".
I agree wit u that 4 bet bluffing is not very useful if villain has a good 3bet frequency. But if villain has higher than 1.5:1 air (air includes some 5bet bluffs too) to nut ratio, 4bet bluffing becomes +EV, and it adds lots of EV to our big hands too.
I think most of our aggressive opponents 3bet a wider air nut ratio than 1.5:1 so i think 4bet bluffing s still ok and profitable.
i kind of like the idea of flatting 3bets with all of our defending range, its goin to be pretty damn hard for them to play profitably OOP vs a range that doesnt only consist of med and weak strength hands only.
How do u feel about not 4 bet bluffing but 4 bet a wide range for value? or do u think its way too easy to adjust?
Buluga Whale has a new series on deuces "whale tales". In it he talks about when to flat when to 4bet v polarised & depolarised ranges inc flatting 3bets with Ako in position. Flatting Ako in the bb rather than 3betting a mp opener. You would probably enjoy it.
yo dan
hope all is well. regarding the fifth hand--
http://weaktight.com/3133269
you are betting to get value from TT and JJ? you think villain chks back w a big A? This situation seems like you have the best hand but very rarely get paid off. Do you think villain views your bet as a bluff? My apologies trying hard to learn the game--and reading your blog infuses me with knowledge. thanks you kind sir.
my best
tom
I agree that i probably dont put enough thoughts in 4betting when i do it.
After your blogpost i thought i would try to flat all my range for a few k hands, see how it goes. But once at the table, i couldnt convince myself to flat hands like AKo oop COvsBU. I feel i lose too much value.
Also, when you say that we 4bet "because everyone does it", it might or might not be the case, however i think you miss a lot of value oop in spots like i said w/ AK or any very good value hand where villain will always 3b/shove a wide range of 99+ AJs+, which is quite often.
Had a hand today where i opened AA otb, flatted a 3b from the BB and we got it in on a 8hi flop vs. his JJ. I mean, this hand will ALWAYS stack off pre. But he can find folds on Khi, Ahi, Qhi flops, or more if he's abit nitty or the board goes horribly for his hand.
So, i'm still doing it, trying to flat more 3bets and not 4betting at all, but online IP. I think oop will make my life hell way too much.
Sedeete, while you do risk loosing value from coolered hands, you should make up for that with the value you get from stuff like K5s that hits Kxx flop or QJo that hits J\Qxx and so on.
On top of that, your bluffs get more credit.
The way I see it, by 4bet\calling off we loose our skill advantage. And along with it we invite variance.
Playing OOP makes it difficult. But again, our stronger range should allow us apply more pressure. And actually it should force opponents to 3bet less.
Fantastic Hand Histories! ;)
3/4-betting games are overrated. Real edges are on turns and rivers, where one player can process information much better than others.
No need to make tourney gambling from cash games.
Very good blog, ty.
Chris, re first point 4betting. Badly put on my part, I guess I'm saying that it's such an established part of MSNL that the initial reasons for it, and the subsequent evolutions that've taken place making it less effective seem to have been lost. I dunno, since I've done it I've had far less variance and I think done properly it'll
make you sick hard to play against.
Martin: Ha you're such a game theory geek! While 4bet bluffing might strictly speaking be +EV to a 1.5:1 air/nut ratio, the difficulty is a) judging what that ratio is at any point in time, b) how wide people may be for value. It might seem for example that dude X 3bets everything and must have Y number of bluffs, but
some guys will 3bet/5bet 66 BB vs CO occasionally, but not be so wedded to doing so that you can just be like auto 4bet call a shit ton of stuff. Whatever the EV of 4betting VS a lot of guys, I think the overall EV of just flatting more with a stronger range has to be at least the same, and IMO bigger.
Chris 2nd point: Ya I'm looking at the Baluga stuff. The problem again with polarised VS unpolarised ranges is that they're so dynamic. It's just not very easy to say with certainty that player X only 3bet/5bets 2.6% for value and a lot of air (polarised) or player Y 3bets/5bets 88 a lot of the time (totally unpolarised).
Tom: This hand, http://weaktight.com/3133269 . Yeah it's a bit of a weird hand actually. The guy in question wasn't very good (a reg, but stupid), and my plan on the turn was just to call/ call, on the assumption he bets most bluffs and some value. On this particular river, I didn't think air would bluff any more, and value
hand were at least as likely to call a shove as they were value bet themselves. So it's a shove imo.
Sedeete: Ya flatting AK to a 3bet is an interesting one. I don't think I'm giving up so many 3bet/5bets with AJ that I'll lose sleep about flatting it and just playing better poker postflop. Everyone 3bets A5s in the BB for example, only the most spewy regularly 5bet bluff it. On A and K hi boards we're obviously golden, but
on lower boards we can likely peel as well. We basically have a ton of options and I think given a huge bulk of a 3bet bluffing range is a dominated Ax I think we're going to be able to make more money than having A7o snap fold, or get into a 200bb pot flip situation VS 99 when we can totally cut our variance and
hopefully do better than the PF 45% vs that hand over the longer term of playing smaller, more skill-involved pots.
'Had a hand today where i opened AA otb, flatted a 3b from the BB and we got it in on a 8hi flop vs. his JJ. I mean, this hand will ALWAYS stack off pre. But he can find folds on Khi, Ahi, Qhi flops, or more if he's abit nitty or the board goes horribly for his hand.'
Yeh totally, but similarly we might end up with folds with KK on Axx that would otherwise have been PF suckouts vs AQ. The times we lose 100bbs of value are at least matched by the times we avoid losing 100bbs ourselves, and I think the overall equity of playing smaller pots is going to be greater. I guess what I
really want to factor into this as well is the fact we can end up bluffing so much more. Some dude 3bets 88 in the bb, cbets 972 into me and gets raised. Wtf is he supposed to do when I can have 30 combos of overpairs, 3 combos of 97s, 7 combos of sets, etc. I'm liking the feeling of having a stronger range in that spot right now.
' I think oop will make my life hell way too much'
Yeh I want to have a leading range VS a lot of peoples. I'll come to that............
'Sedeete, while you do risk loosing value from coolered hands, you should make up for that with the value you get from stuff like K5s that hits Kxx flop or QJo that hits J\Qxx and so on.
On top of that, your bluffs get more credit.
The way I see it, by 4bet\calling off we loose our skill advantage. And along with it we invite variance.
Playing OOP makes it difficult. But again, our stronger range should allow us apply more pressure. And actually it should force opponents to 3bet less.'
and then
'Fantastic Hand Histories! ;)
3/4-betting games are overrated. Real edges are on turns and rivers, where one player can process information much better than others.'
Yeah this is basically what I'm saying. I'm ready for a debate, and willing to be proven wrong though. The cliffs of why I'm so sure are:
a) Skill edge more prevelant. Too many regs able to master PF 3bet/5bet and 4betting and thus get away with 1ptbb/100 winrates that eat into those players who used to be so naturally better. Force them into flops turns and rivers facing strong ranges!
b) Following on from a, the AK IP vs 99 is a good example. We're just going to do better than 45% in this spot (which is the 99 vs ak stove if anyone missed that).
c) Bluffs kept in, Q9s vs KK, A3o vs AQ, ATo vs QQ etc.
d) Our flatting range is that much stronger. Either people don't adjust and we keep stacking J3s on j82 (most likely scenario) or we make foldy players' live's hell by bluffing our stronger range way more often.
e) Less variance! Far less variance. Let's stop throwing 100bbs around in endless tourny flips FFS. I'm not against variance for it's own sake, but I believe the improvement on my mental state and tilt will add to my winrate.
Whatever downsides, I think the benefits outweigh them. I guess I'll post an update end of Feb or whatever.
Thanks for comments people..........
Hi Grog,
You're saying "Everyone 3bets A5s in the BB for example, only the most spewy regularly 5bet bluff it."
Which is the prove that you can 4bet bluf actually...
Youre saying that you dont want to 4bet, because they're 5betshoving etc. But then when someone asks you about AK/AQ/JJ/TT etc., youre using a reasoning, being incosistent with your earlier reasoning..
prove = proof
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