Current Leaks

It's early days yet. I'm happy enough with the EV results, but not how I've played in a lot of spots. One current big leak is reverse equity spots. I just think it's so important to have super sick reads/ inferred reads before attempting a big call down over multiple streets.

Take something like this:

***** Hand History for Game 67992740544 ***** (Poker Stars)
$200.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, September 24, 02:40:55 ET 2011
Table Rhodope IV (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: peterkway ( $240.35 USD )
Seat 2: NotACatOK? ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 3: edercampana ( $202.00 USD )
Seat 4: patriot424 ( $200.40 USD )
Seat 5: aiamolinbaby ( $409.00 USD )
Seat 6: sipinho13 ( $475.50 USD )
sipinho13 posts small blind [$1.00 USD].
peterkway posts big blind [$2.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NotACatOK? [ Qc Qh ]
NotACatOK? raises [$6.00 USD]
edercampana raises [$18.00 USD]
patriot424 folds
aiamolinbaby folds
sipinho13 folds
peterkway folds
NotACatOK? calls [$12.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, Ac, 8c ]
NotACatOK? checks
edercampana bets [$24.00 USD]
NotACatOK? calls [$24.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
NotACatOK? checks
edercampana bets [$56.00 USD]
NotACatOK? calls [$56.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 3s ]
NotACatOK? checks
edercampana bets [$104.00 USD]
NotACatOK? folds
edercampana wins $104.00 USD
edercampana wins $196.00 USD from main pot

It's like, maybe VS some this is fine. Maybe VS some this is terrible. The point is I just don't know. Avoiding reverse equity spots is all about making potential mistakes when the pot is tiny, rather when the pot is huge. So on the flop, I'm flipping a coin whether to call or not (although if the hand were to end now, it would be a clear call). On the river, I'm similarly flipping a coin. Without knowledge of frequencies and inflection points and general level I'm better off making a small mistake on the flop by folding. Or in this case with the flush draw, maybe peel the flop but definitely dump the turn. He could literally never be bluffing, or could always be bluffing putting me on exactly what I have. Shrug, make a poor decision that you can't really avoid when the pot is TINY.

I'm reviewing a reg a day, or at least trying to. I lack direction in this regard, would be nice to have a methodical approach in terms of what I'm looking for exactly and then create hem filters to do that job. I settled for looking at 3bet pot aggressor play from the blinds, as I'm going to be flatting 3bets a lot more and these are decent sized pots that are going to be a big earner or a big loser for me. The one reg I chose I found sick imbalances in his flop betsizing. Check was 100% a check call with weakish value. Bet big was always value. Bet weak was always a bluff. Good to know this stuff.

If anyone (Pawel I'm looking at you) has more suggestions for the most important reads and how to find them, then I'm all ears.

dan