I'm talking about getting 100bbs+ in the pot PF and being wrong.
Actually, probably not that low. In bobbos coaching once we did the maths of being HU, and making the mistake that every time a guy 4bet us, we thought he was FOS and jammed a bluff range of Ax, small pairs, suited connectors, when in actual fact he ONLY 4bet with AA.
He wanted us to find out the effect on our winrate of making this mistaken assumption.
We factored in the number of times AA is dealt VS us, multiplied by the times we have said hands to 3bet etc, then did equity calcs. The effect came out as a 0.6 ptbb/100 negative on our winrate, which Rob didn't think was that bad. I think it's pretty big, but anyway.
I think at 6max, there is a lot more scope for getting this wrong. The most annoying thing about it though, is that it should be RIDICULOUSLY easy not to get it wrong. It's basically just a function of pure HEM numbers, perhaps altered slightly by whatever dynamic is going on, but essentially VS a multiabling standard reg we just look at his 4bet range, and adjust for some other factors.
Here's the hand anyway:
Here were his stats. As you can see, over 8k hands, this guy is just not a 4bet bluffer. He's also not a light 4bettor for value. In fact, it's pretty doubtful whether he even gets in AK.
Here we're 120bbs deep. He's IP, which means he's even more likely to flat AK and JJ. He knows I'm a spaz 3bet/5bettor.
It's a really really fucking easy decision to just flat PF, or else 3bet fold (flatting wins obv). In the worst of cases, I should auto 3bet and then think ah shit mistake, fold now.
It's so frustrating because all other technically harder plays have an EV much much less than the downward EV of making this one, very avoidable, mechanical mistake.
Anyway, I got slaughtered that last session. Here's the hands, I don't think I can do too much....
http://weaktight.com/2643895 - saying check flop is extremely hindsight heavy in my book
I'm feeling mild tilt right now, even 2 hours after the last session, so I'll probably my most +EV decision of the day and go downstairs and read a book for an hour before playing..........
dan
7 comments:
That KK v QQ will definitely help me feel less frustrated at any beats for the next few days as I can just remember that you had it worse!
In the first hand, I've been thinking about spots where regs raise the turn and it's to know what to think so far. I feel like when they do it in a spot where it's a card you're barrelling a ton (J64K) they're going to be more bluffy, and when it's on a board like that where they probably expect you to expect them to not be folding (and so you're more value based) then their raise is more value-y (as they think you have a made hand a lot and won't be able to fold given the draws out).
I don't know what you think of that. Obviously you're never getting away from 77, but I think you can get away from some pretty strong hands there. Although I am a nit that likes folding.
Yeah I definitely agree, and didn't think he was bluffing, but he's a bit fishy and might have 2 pairs or a set of 66, etc.
I hate it when they raise say the turn on J63 K, say I have KQ. On the one hand they shouldn't raise anything for value as I'm barreling everything off and they can raise the river, on the other I often can't tell just who's stupid enough not to think this and has just binked KJ. It's sad, but I usually anticpate a river bet 100% and find a turn fold.
This blog was a real time waster. First you make that big spiel for me only to find you are crying about getting Jacks in pre 4 handed.
Secondly you wasted my time with all those bad beats at the end. More over who the fuck recommends checking the flop.
You definitely oversimplify it. Maybe your standards allow you to make mistake after mistake then justify them through cliche and generalised reasons like 'we was 4 handed and H has JJ'. Tons and tons of stuff like this is just taken for granted and can be just plain wrong.
Except that everything you have written is flawed or an assumptions.
You have 8k hands. I doubt they are 4 handed. Filter those for co+ or if you want to get really specific for your hand btn/co. Then remember it's 8k hands, which don't really mean a whole lot.
How many of those hands are 2010? Last 6 months? More than 1 year? People are changing there game more than ever. People get it in wider and lighter esp btn v sb/bb/co.
What are you're actual reads? You suggest he may even flat AK pf as his standard. How have you been playing against him? Is the dynamic there where you should be able to get it in lighter?
How wide is he opening? How aggressive is he overall? You gave absolutely nothing in your op.
You basically seen he had a hand better than jacks, looked at the lol 2% stat in hem and applied the backwards bias that he must always have better.
In addition the fact you even suggest a retrospective check in the k9 hand set the alarm bells off in my mind that your whole mindset today is results oriented.
Nah, you can extrapolate a whole lot more than just the basic numbers. It's a mindset/ animal type thing. This guy does not get money in the pot PF light, JJ is a mistake.
I didn't want to check the K9. I was anticipating a comment from you advocating this line. I didn't check it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ocO1Uq8UpA&feature=related
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