I played a 400nl session last night with some spots I need to analyse.
http://weaktight.com/3021058 - 'MuscleSuperStar'. Weird reg. Wins very well but weird in the sense he has a flop cbet % of 24%. I've just checked and it's just as low OOP as IP...... how this translates into 3bet pots is that he has a very strong cc range in 3bet pots. I say strong, he'll cc AK hi and stuff like that, as well as pure bluffs.
Now, I don't want to copy this style or anything, but I do need to better understand it. Why is betting the flop in 3bet pots good anyway? Well, to win the pot, to get value, and to stop giving away free cards, and to balance your bluffs. If he's check calling so much, then he's going to win the pot less, get less value, give free cards and not be able to bluff the flop.
So long as I understand this, then what this means is that I should be pretty happy flatting IP VS him and thus do it with a wider range.
After cc, he's capable of firing two barrells as a bluff, betting twice for value, check raising or turning a hand into a bluff. Sometimes he check folds too. I don't know what his cbetting range is...... searching my database I can only find one and that was KQ on ATx, so it's possible his cbetting range is still really weak.
Given everything I've just written, I think I should check the flop to see a free card and take it from there. Once I've bet and he calls it's just shutdown city, and I possibly couldn't even barrel any Qs or As given he can just have them a lot.
Some triple barrells, both VS the same guy:
http://weaktight.com/3021085 - he floats a ton. On the turn, I think his call 2 range differs enough from his call 1 range that I can bet profitably in a vacuum, (KJ, TT, 9x), then on the river his call 3 differs enough from his call 2 that I can bet 3 (Qx, weak aces, other pure floats).
http://weaktight.com/3021097 - this one I like less, but again I am EP and he's floaty enough to have a ton of stuff like QJ, and he's in a nightmare spot with most Ax anyway. I dislike my river size, I think bigger for both value and bluffs to discourage bluff shoves, and I think there's a decent chance he's shoved something like 99.
http://weaktight.com/3021105 - sometime yesterday I remembered how cool small bets are. Having the 2 aces out there is a dream spot as there's probably only 8 combos in his range that can call down (all AQ).
http://weaktight.com/3021109 - funny spot, I think this is as close to a total river merge as you can get. Some regs definitely look me up with 76 here, some others find a fold with 88. My options OOP on all streets where bet or CF, and I think my river bet leads to far greater things happening than does checking.
http://weaktight.com/3021117 - result left out. You tell me, I was pretty torn. On the one hand he's definitely capable of having a bluff and turning hands into bluffs, on the other........ he sees me as a bad station and I don't think he likes burning money.
http://weaktight.com/3021122 - included as I've been torn in these spots for a while, but settled on always betting them, the smaller the better.
dan
6 comments:
Against muscle I'm not sure what the best approach is against him. I think value betting semi-thin against him on three streets is a good place to start. It's a little worrying because I know he turns hands into bluffs on rivers, but I'm still going to be tripling relatively light for value when he checks to me.
Checking my database on him since November 1st:
He's check folded 110 times. Check called 122 times. Check raised 18 times.
So this means he's check folding 45% of the time. I think this means we can almost auto bet when he checks to us, although I obviously wouldn't bet 100%.
The 33 hand I prefer just check folding the flop and barrelling with hands with more equity (even as weak as T8 or 87 that can turn a gutter). 33 just isn't improving very often and I'd rather not have to triple in a spot where I don't have much equity and I don't think he ever folds the flop.
I have notes on borntarun saying he didn't triple barrel bluff when a draw missed (but did triple barrel bluff when an obvious draw hit). Also that he didn't turn a mid pair into a bluff when checked to on a four straight river. So I'd fold the KQ.
hand 1: I'd take a stab on the flop with the intention of barreling off favourable cards. That turn isn't one of them, he isn't folding and he shows up with a hand very much like i'd expect him to have without knowing him better. A situation FWF would talk about with me. Not in favour of the free card approach when there are so many great 2 barrel cards.
Hand 2: 33. We know this is a great spot to triple barrel bluff, but when you do it with 33 your frequencies are way off. There are plenty of legitimate hands that you can triple - all flush & straight draws. You are far too air heavy and you're not value betting thin enough to balance. Villains will call you extemely wide for value and in tbh this is a terrible triple. I assume he whiffed JT or a weak flush draw, maybe you got lucky & he folded a Q. When so many draws miss like this it's too obvious to be doing it this wide.
Hand 3: What you trying to get him to fold on the river? I feel like you haven't considered his range enough and are focusing on the he floats a lot aspect. 99 would be an awful shove. Fucking terribad.
Hand 4: I don't think you get looked up there by 76 hardly ever or even 88 these days. I prob check the flop personally or the turn since I have so much other stuff I'm bluffing with I don't feel the need to do it with weak hands with SD value.
I missed the AAx $60 cbet hand it was unimportant tho.
KQ hand you gave nowhere near enough info to make that read. Like his open raise size i'd like to know what up with that etc.? Some people i'd never call this and some people I think i'd think it mandatory given how weak my hand looks.
Last hand i'm in favour of betting small.
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