http://weaktight.com/2979537 - some bad bluffs really. a) my perceived stab and turn stab range is going to be pretty wide, b) Gopheresque is in the top 3 percentile of 'supsicious of me' regs on Full Tilt. I just need to be bluffing him in only the very best spots for it, and value betting him like crazy with a super wide almost merged range.
http://weaktight.com/2979547 - really really torn on the flop. On the one hand, I'm probably giving up AQ type hands on this board, so it's nice to be able to check a hand with some improvement potential that isn't just giving up. On the other hand, I'm not actually CRAI with anything. So, I'm balanced when it comes to the check, but not the CRAI part. Hmm, maybe I should just always bet, I guess I have some bluffs such as A8hh, and the times I have those bluffs that can bet this board tallys nicely with the times I have a pair+OESD type of hand like this. yeah definitely I should just bet and throw in A8.
http://weaktight.com/2979557 - Dodgeball tells me if villain's cold 4bet % is over 3 then 5bet jam a lot. His was 10. This has actually yet to let me down so this cancels his costly advice about 3bet jamming every turn raise on a card villain 'should' just be calling.
http://weaktight.com/2979562 - I'm going through a stage of 4betting nothing IP. This means I have to flat much wider so I'm not dead money every time I raise. I really liked how I played this, a flop stab is blatently a CC from AK type hand. Similarly on the turn. So waiting for a river scarecard is the best way to win this hand as this is exactly how AJ goes down, but important is betting a river amount that makes him indifferent to calling or folding. I'm starting to realise that both my bluffs and value bets need to be on the higher side in general.
http://weaktight.com/2979568 - villain is a nit. He hardly ever 3bets, but has 5% OTB and thus some bluffs. I should be 4bet bluffing rarely though. What annoyed me about this hand is that if I'm 4betting A9s, then I'm also 4betting AT, AJ, AQ and probably all Ax. Because I want to 4bet bluff him so rarely (but not never!) I should literally only 4bet bluff AQo .
http://weaktight.com/2979573 - 14% 3betting range, and barrelly. Included this as I'm folding the best hand so option and I need a solution. Answer is to 4bet call 55-99 and AK VS him given he 3bets/5bets 22-44. So, a deviation from my non-4bet-IP strategy needed for this guy.
http://weaktight.com/2979577 - villain suspicious and slightly bad. I planned to bet twice and CC the river VS QJ, KJ, 87 as I don't think he can value bet a T and JJ+ gets 4bet close to 100%.
River I have to jam (sigh of relief when he TIIIIMES), and I think his call VS my range on that card is bad.
http://weaktight.com/2979581 - annoying spot. A turn bet accomplishes nothing, but my hand is face up by the river. The answer is certainly to check Tx and 7x on the turn and jam the river. I'm pretty sure I would've, and thus I'm happy enough with this hand.
http://weaktight.com/2979586 - villain is really tight, and his leads are clearly TT-QQ. His turn bet becomes a bet for information, and I think deep IP in this spot it's only fair to manipulate that information to our advantage.
Ashes Bets
These are my 3 Ashes bets. I'm clearly in love with the 3.1/1 I got on England, but with the threat of rain I've laid off against the draw..... so I'm currently break even at worst, with a potential profit of £540 if England win and Pietersen gets his 100, he's currently on 82 or something.
| Market | Selection | Type | Bet ID | Bet placed | Odds req. | Stake (£) | Liability (£) | Avg. odds matched | Date matched |  | ||||
| Test Series / Australia v England (2nd Test) / Match Odds | The Draw | Back | 960222635 | 04-Dec-10 06:33 | 2.6 | 128.00 | 2.6 | 04-Dec-10 06:33 | | ||||
| Test Series / Australia v England (2nd Test) / England Score 100 - 1st Inns | Kevin Pietersen | Back | 957075505 | 02-Dec-10 20:42 | 5.1 | 20.00 | 5.1 | 02-Dec-10 20:42 | | ||||
| Test Series / Australia v England (2nd Test) / Match Odds | England | Back | 957075426 | 02-Dec-10 20:41 | 4.1 | 180.0 | |||||||
dan
2 comments:
Great post. (btw i guess you know by now but in regards to your previous post, yes you can mark hands while you play).
Just a question on this hand http://weaktight.com/2979547
Why do you chose "this side" of balancing ? As you say in your post, from now on you will bet this flop with this hand and throw in A8hh because you just dont think that you can CRAI in a balanced way.
My questions are :
- What are you doing on this flop with this hand if he raises your bet ? If he shoves ? Typicly it's a spot where i would shape my cbet sizing in a manner that i know how he could/should react. Would you make it big, close to pot, to have an easy call when he shoves ? Or make it small to be able to bet/3bet with more money in the pot and putting the last be in?
- And more importantly, why dont you go the other way around and start CRAI Axss, overpairs and therefor you can CRAI 76 there too ? I just feel like you will have much more difficult decisions with balancing a bet in this spot than a CRAI.
It's all obviously very villain dependant.
I wanted to tell you too that your explaination on this hand http://weaktight.com/2979581 and some of your previous posts about this made me a better player, thanks a lot. I dont feel yet that i win more money while thinking a LOT more about my ranges everywhere in a hand, but i feel much more confortable like you say in spots where i have to just fold my hand but i know i can get there with a good hand too so it doesnt matter that much. Helped me "tilt" a lot less and made me a lot more confident in a lot of spots, so thank you.
This was a big long, huhowww.
Sedeete
Hey dude:
Q1: Any value hand I'm betting on this flop I'm never folding. In terms of betsize, I think the only thing that should affect your betsize VS regs is the board texture, betting ~80% pot on this very wet board texture works for both value and bluffs. I wouldn't expect a raise fold on this board texture, so I think bet/call and bet/3bet would work out the same.
Q2: I don't want to balance by CR AA, KK etc, 'cos giving a free card on this board texture is a nightmare. I then can't really check flop and lead turn as that's definitely never a bluff, and if he just checks down A7 or I lose value VS ~TT 'cos the board goes 4 straight or 3flush then that's horrible.
As for your last point, I keep repeating about knowing you can have a different hand in each spot as that's the single most important thing my last coach said to me. Personally it's a real epiphany.
dan
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