Tuesday 8 November 2011

Bluff Spots

I focussed on looking for decent bluff spots that session and did much better without showdown. May as well post em all ........

First of all some relevant history:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTGthegunner16$149.95
COOnSight11$402
BTNkoobiel$200
SBgrogheadflow$210
BBsundalyonly$231
  • Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is SB
  • cJ sJ
2 folds, koobiel raises to $6, grogheadflow raises to $18, 1 fold, koobiel calls $12
  • Flop ($38, 2 players)
  • cK s5 d5
grogheadflow bets $18, koobiel raises to $42, grogheadflow calls $24
  • Turn ($122, 2 players)
  • h6
grogheadflow checks, koobiel checks
  • River ($122, 2 players)
  • dA
grogheadflow checks, koobiel checks
  • Final Pot: $122
  • koobiel shows
  • dQsK
  • grogheadflow shows
  • cJsJ
  • koobiel wins $120 (net +$60)
  • grogheadflow lost $60


So what do we take from this? Well, unless he's also going to be raising tons of bluffs in 3bet pots there's really no point in him doing this. The only effect it really has is to weaken his calling range in 3bet pots.


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTGeugesperman$92.50
UTG+1OnSight11$336.80
COkoobiel$254
BTNgrogheadflow$267
SBsundalyonly$221
BBthegunner16$200.45
  • Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is BTN
  • s9 h8
2 folds, koobiel raises to $6, grogheadflow raises to $18, 2 folds, koobiel calls $12
  • Flop ($39, 2 players)
  • hK dT s6
koobiel checks, grogheadflow bets $21, koobiel calls $21
  • Turn ($81, 2 players)
  • c2
koobiel checks, grogheadflow bets $54, koobiel folds
  • Final Pot: $135
  • grogheadflow wins $132 (net +$39)
  • koobiel lost $39

So we get a turn fold, but given the above read it was definitely going to be 3 streets. He has a weak flatting range in 3bet pots to start with which helps, as well as a lowish WTSD over 30k hands.

Next Hand:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTGOnSight11$398
COkoobiel$260
BTNgrogheadflow$200
SBthegunner16$205.45
BBeugesperman$80
  • Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is BTN
  • d4 dA
OnSight11 raises to $6, 1 fold, grogheadflow calls $6, 2 folds
  • Flop ($15, 2 players)
  • s3 c4 d9
OnSight11 bets $8, grogheadflow calls $8
  • Turn ($31, 2 players)
  • h5
OnSight11 bets $18, grogheadflow calls $18
  • River ($67, 2 players)
  • dQ
OnSight11 bets $42, grogheadflow goes all-in $168, OnSight11 folds
  • Final Pot: $277
  • grogheadflow wins $275 (net +$75)
  • OnSight11 lost $74


So the above hand was just all about a combination of accumulated reads. These were my current notes:


Observations
------------------
 ~ weak cbF k88r ip
 ~ bet check bet oop turned T7s flush on k88ss 3s T, quick $42 on river
 ~ flat qq bb-utg, cc t62 and 9 turn
 ~ db depolarised oop, AT on jt4r and 5 turn small bvb
------------------
Questions
------------------
 ~ weakened turn barrel oop if CRing flushes?
 ~ betsizing tell oop on turn, weak is weak value ?
 ~ quick checks oop weak as pfr?
 ~

So on the turn, we have the weakened OOP betsizing, and the depolarised cbetting to tell us that we're behind to weakish value. We also have an instance of him check raising the turn as the PFR with the nuts, which further weakens his range. I decide to call and overbet bluff the river on tons of cards. On the river, I can infer from previous actions, river aggression and betsizing that he's going for weakish value with 9x a lot, TT sometimes. 17 tabling I doubt he's making these hero calls routinely, and luckily for my confidence he folded.

Next Hand:





$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 4 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

COgrogheadflow$248.95
BTNKfuse$513.85
SBMadAgenda$235.90
BBndjoh$492.40
  • Pre-Flop ($4.60, 4 players)Hero is CO
  • s8 c8
grogheadflow raises to $6, 2 folds, ndjoh raises to $22, grogheadflow calls $16
  • Flop ($46.60, 2 players)
  • c7 hT d6
ndjoh bets $30, grogheadflow calls $30
  • Turn ($106.60, 2 players)
  • s5
ndjoh checks, grogheadflow bets $48, ndjoh calls $48
  • River ($202.60, 2 players)
  • d7
ndjoh checks, grogheadflow checks
  • Final Pot: $202.60
  • ndjoh shows
  • dQsQ
  • grogheadflow shows
  • s8c8
  • ndjoh wins $200.60 (net +$100.20)
  • grogheadflow lost $100.40

Without boiling them all down, this guy's stats pointed to being slightly risk averse. Given how squarely the board smashes my flatting range, I elect to bet turn shove river as a bluff to fold out all overpairs. This is the worst river card though, as he won't perceive I'm betting 7x on the turn and it really reduces my value combos. I think on any 4,8,9,j,Q,K,A though it would work a lot, and maybe on a 2 or 3.


Next Hand:



$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTGSheeter 200$347.70
COblaaaaaah666$300.80
BTNgrogheadflow$263.80
SBMadAgenda$207.20
BBndjoh$1,049.30
  • Pre-Flop ($5.00, 5 players)Hero is BTN
  • c3 d3
1 fold, blaaaaaah666 raises to $6, grogheadflow raises to $18, 2 folds, blaaaaaah666 raises to $44, grogheadflow calls $26
  • Flop ($93, 2 players)
  • hA d7 sQ
blaaaaaah666 checks, grogheadflow bets $38, blaaaaaah666 calls $38
  • Turn ($169, 2 players)
  • s2
blaaaaaah666 checks, grogheadflow bets $181.40, blaaaaaah666 calls $181.40
  • River ($531.80, 2 players)
  • hJ
  • Final Pot: $531.80
  • blaaaaaah666 shows
  • d8dQ
  • grogheadflow shows
  • c3d3
  • blaaaaaah666 wins $529.80 (net +$266)
  • grogheadflow lost $263.80

Chris I can see you typing furiously into my comments about this hand already ! But please let me explain...................

$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTGSheeter 200$347.70
COblaaaaaah666$300.80
BTNgrogheadflow$263.80
SBMadAgenda$207.20
BBndjoh$1,049.30
  • Pre-Flop ($5.00, 5 players)Hero is BTN
  • cA dA
1 fold, blaaaaaah666 raises to $6, grogheadflow raises to $18, 2 folds, blaaaaaah666 raises to $44, grogheadflow calls $26
  • Flop ($93, 2 players)
  • hA d7 sQ
blaaaaaah666 checks, grogheadflow bets $38, blaaaaaah666 calls $38
  • Turn ($169, 2 players)
  • s2
blaaaaaah666 checks, grogheadflow bets $181.40, blaaaaaah666 calls $181.40
  • River ($531.80, 2 players)
  • hJ
  • Final Pot: $531.80
  • blaaaaaah666 shows
  • d8dQ
  • grogheadflow shows
  • cAdA
  • grogheadflow wins $529.80 (net +$266)
  • blaaaaaah666 lost $263.80

I actually had AA, and he's a mug! Actually I was really torn on the turn. There's probably a 50/50 split between who exactly it's better to bet small VS, and who would rather level themselves into a call facing a shove. I think checking the turn and betting the river is the worst option, unless we're playing sauce who probably floats 43o oop and shoves the river. Bleh VS this guy I just thought a shove would work better, better to rep JT etc. I think with a bluff tho 2/3 pot is wayyyyy superior.


Have some more bluffs but bored of typing. night

1 comment:

Chris said...

Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff. Glad you find some bluff spots again. :)