I guess this blog will be more interesting if I post some hands without results to get some comments, then I'll give my analysis and results. First some relevant history:
$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars
Generated by weaktight.com.
| UTG | BrandiCakes | $503.80 | |
| CO | LarryGold97 | $400 | |
| BTN | SenorPokes | $200 | |
| SB | grogheadflow | $202.60 | |
| BB | ledal360 | $501.20 | |
- Pre-Flop ($5.00, 5 players)Hero is SB
1 fold, LarryGold97 raises to $6, 1 fold, grogheadflow raises to $18, 1 fold, LarryGold97 calls $12
- Flop ($40, 2 players)
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grogheadflow bets $19.35, LarryGold97 raises to $38.70, grogheadflow calls $19.35
- Turn ($117.40, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, LarryGold97 checks
- River ($117.40, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, LarryGold97 bets $90, grogheadflow folds
- Final Pot: $207.40
- LarryGold97 wins $205.40 (net +$58.30)
- grogheadflow lost $57.10
Then this hand comes up: villain is 28/15/10 over only 70 hands. Is a loser on ptr over a smallish sample, and I don't recognise him so I'm assuming somewhat fishy.
$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars
Generated by weaktight.com.
| UTG | Akula1337 | $395 | |
| UTG+1 | Poker Rexxx | $222.60 | |
| CO | BrandiCakes | $724.60 | |
| BTN | LarryGold97 | $406.85 | |
| SB | SenorPokes | $201 | |
| BB | grogheadflow | $223.40 | |
- Pre-Flop ($5.40, 6 players)Hero is BB
Akula1337 raises to $6.75, 2 folds, LarryGold97 calls $6.75, 1 fold, grogheadflow raises to $26, Akula1337 folds, LarryGold97 calls $19.25
- Flop ($62.15, 2 players)
-
grogheadflow bets $28, LarryGold97 raises to $56, grogheadflow calls $28
- Turn ($174.15, 2 players)
grogheadflow checks, LarryGold97 bets $82
- Final Pot: $256.15
Villain here is 27/25. 8% sqz from bb over 2k hands, 16% raw BB 3bet. Cbets 77% in 3bet pots. Given we can't improve, I feel flop is certainly one of bet fold or bet call. How are we adjusting his 8% sqz range based on the situation? What do we make of his lack of cbet?
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars
Generated by weaktight.com.
| UTG | grogheadflow | $200 | |
| UTG+1 | MakoEv | $200 | |
| CO | Poker Rexxx | $460.85 | |
| BTN | ran77 | $326 | |
| SB | fire81147 | $244.45 | |
| BB | PEGASO512 | $192.25 | |
- Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is UTG
grogheadflow raises to $6, 1 fold, Poker Rexxx calls $6, ran77 calls $6, fire81147 raises to $31, 1 fold, grogheadflow calls $25, Poker Rexxx folds, ran77 folds
- Flop ($76, 2 players)
-
fire81147 checks, grogheadflow bets $34, fire81147 goes all-in $213.45
- Final Pot: $323.45
Small pot. In this hand villain stabs flats 13%, and stabs 54%. The stab number needs contextualising based on us being 4way. I have a ton of reads on him, but none particularly relevant to this spot. He is capable of barreling etc. How foldable or callable is this ?
$1/$2 Ante $0.40 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars
Generated by weaktight.com.
| UTG | Poker Rexxx | $222.20 | |
| UTG+1 | BrandiCakes | $724.20 | |
| CO | LarryGold97 | $242.45 | |
| BTN | SenorPokes | $200 | |
| SB | grogheadflow | $394.15 | |
| BB | Akula1337 | $387.85 | |
- Pre-Flop ($5.40, 6 players)Hero is SB
1 fold, BrandiCakes raises to $7.40, 1 fold, SenorPokes calls $7.40, grogheadflow calls $6.40, Akula1337 calls $5.40
- Flop ($32, 4 players)
-
grogheadflow checks, Akula1337 checks, BrandiCakes checks, SenorPokes bets $22
- Final Pot: $54
4 comments:
In the AQ hand I think the first hand might make him more likely to raise something like AJ/AT. There aren't that many combos of those hands though, and even if you do 3-bet the flop and get it in against those well he's going to continue betting them anyway. Plus when you flat you rep more underpairs/flush draws/floats cuz he raised last time. So yeah I like flatting. I think you need to flat the turn again and check call any river. I don't think a flush draw always raises the flop, and if it does it doesn't always bet the turn, so I'm still calling a flush river here.
In the JJ hand I think there's some merit to getting it in preflop. Taking it down is a decent result, and depending on the player I think a lot of guys might 3-bet call AQ/TT sometimes here. Also I think there are a lot of hands like KQ, AT that have some equity against you when you flat, and he can bluff you out on quite a few flops. So I'd just take my lumps here and get it in pre (I think his 8% squeeze is higher than most which makes me think he's more likely to take advantage of this situation that most).
Postflop I think it just has to be a bet call if you bet. I'd expect him to bet AA-QQ almost always to get value from specifically QQ-99. He could check to let AQ/KQ types bet, but then he should just check call with AA/KK against them and let them continue bluffing or hit something. So I think it has to be a bet call. Not sure what to expect, maybe AK, 97, 65. Who knows.
Hello.
AQ hand- on the flop if I'm making a decision and don't know the answer, I always want to be at least certain of the parameters I'm missing to make an informed decision. When he raises on A52hh VS:
Air: we definitely want to flat
Flushdraw: 3bet
Worse Value: I would argue 3bet as flatting allows pot control.
But then, we can argue that while 3betting VS air is horrendous, flatting VS a flushdraw or worse value isn't that bad. So yeh I decide to flat.
On the turn, there's hardly anything behind so I just like minraise all in. I win a snap fold. Meh he might shove in his last $48 on the river who knows.
JJ- I had this discussion with Chris and I hate getting in PF. We're behind his get it in range (43%). Granted we get a lot of folds, but we get folds from air that we crush postflop anyway and win more money VS over the long term. While the flop can come Ahi or Khi or whatever, I think we can happily call once and fold turn VS our perceived range, and just play decent in general. As played I bet call and he had AK, I held.
TT I folded the flop. Dodgy I know you're a fan!
I didn't check stack sizes properly on the AQ hand - I'd just woken up is my excuse. Clearly it's a turn raise with those stacks.
The JJ I'll have to think more about getting in pre and do some maths on it. Essentially JJ is the same as 77 here really (aside from the odd times he squeezes and gets in TT-88, which probably isn't THAT often), so it'd be really good to understand fully the maths preflop. JJ and 77 obviously aren't the same postflop as his air has a lot more equity against 77 than JJ when taking a flop.
I missed the TT hand. I like folding or check raising I think. With check raising we take it down sometimes and can bluff some turns. Depends on the player, but I'm pretty sure I fold usually.
I think the main argument against JJ = 77 here is that when we have 77, he can have JJ. Stoving it, JJ definitely doesn't equal 77, I get 35% compared to 43.6%. JJ+, AK, half the combos of TT and AQ.
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