Something strange has happened

1209 hands played today. Stuck $302, EV of $29.35.


Now I certainly played good 'in the moment'. That is to say I didn't do anything stupid which I knew to be stupid at the time, and believe me that's a big deal! A few specifics I certainly got wrong though, and there's one big generality that is the 'strange' thing.

Specific Mistake:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	tooturney	$352.20
UTG+1	grogheadflow	$210.45
CO	TopLad14	$200
BTN	C1awViper	$936.30
SB	therichyrich	$415.65
BB	HIFIGIRL	$200

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is UTG+1
• 

1 fold, grogheadflow raises to $6, 3 folds, HIFIGIRL raises to $20, grogheadflow calls $14

• Flop ($41, 2 players)
• 

HIFIGIRL bets $24, grogheadflow calls $24

• Turn ($89, 2 players)
• 

HIFIGIRL bets $40, grogheadflow calls $40

• River ($169, 2 players)
• 

HIFIGIRL bets $116, grogheadflow calls $116

• Final Pot: $401

• HIFIGIRL shows
• 

• grogheadflow shows
• 

• HIFIGIRL wins $398 (net +$198)
• grogheadflow lost $200

10% bettor, 8% VS EP. I assume higher VS me because of my high fold to cbet stat which still must be kicking around. 66% flop cbet in 3bet pots and 78% turn cbet. 36% river aggression. I decided to call. Chris gave a good analysis though so I'll just copy and paste:


[08/11/2011 23:13:50] chris conlon: there's something that about 6max poker that makes me laugh after playing hu
[08/11/2011 23:14:05] chris conlon: say a guy 3bets 8% of hands
[08/11/2011 23:14:12] chris conlon: thats fucking nothing
[08/11/2011 23:14:36] chris conlon: so when u say a guy has 4% cold 4bet
[08/11/2011 23:14:55] chris conlon: sure he can be bluffing, but he prob isnt doing it enough to jam 99
[08/11/2011 23:15:16] chris conlon: thats not to say he wont fold occasionally when u do
[08/11/2011 23:15:29] chris conlon: so fold
[08/11/2011 23:15:34] chris conlon: hand 2 u left results in
[08/11/2011 23:15:45] chris conlon: but yeah 8% 3b is nothing
[08/11/2011 23:15:55] chris conlon: to me anymore
[08/11/2011 23:16:43] chris conlon: & when it gets cut by 64% then 80%. it's mostly value to me
[08/11/2011 23:17:03] chris conlon: with occasional bluffs, sometimes you will call & be gd but mostly u will lose imo.

Hext Hand : 26% starting range, high flop cbet and turn cbet. No read on polarised or depolarised cbetting though. Unsure on river.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 5 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	PeVu24	$200
CO	aaaRtINS	$200
BTN	grogheadflow	$211.25
SB	mykeemykee	$83.65
BB	vinc421	$344

• Pre-Flop ($3, 5 players)Hero is BTN
• 

1 fold, aaaRtINS raises to $6, grogheadflow calls $6, 2 folds

• Flop ($15, 2 players)
• 

aaaRtINS bets $10.65, grogheadflow calls $10.65

• Turn ($36.30, 2 players)
• 

aaaRtINS bets $25.90, grogheadflow calls $25.90

• River ($88.10, 2 players)
• 

aaaRtINS bets $64.55

• Final Pot: $152.65

I'd been 3betting this huge megafish a ton, and I mean like 40% of hands for like 10 minutes. No1 had done anything about it, and suddenly this happens and the guy has a 4% cold 4bet, implying some bluffs. I hate getting in PF like this these days, but can't decide if this is that bad or not. If we decide it's 'ok', then for me that's bad as there's way too much grey area in these things and the variance I can do without.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players • PokerStars

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	vinc421	$231.10
UTG+1	tooturney	$286.95
CO	grogheadflow	$208.50
BTN	Hert48	$209
SB	C1awViper	$743.40
BB	therichyrich	$200

• Pre-Flop ($3, 6 players)Hero is CO
• 

1 fold, tooturney raises to $4.40, grogheadflow raises to $18, 2 folds, therichyrich raises to $38, tooturney folds, grogheadflow goes all-in $208.50, therichyrich calls $162

• Flop ($413.90, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Turn ($413.90, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• River ($413.90, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $413.90

• therichyrich shows
• 

• grogheadflow shows
• 

• therichyrich wins $402.40 (net +$202.40)
• grogheadflow collects $8.50 (net -$200)
• tooturney lost $4.40

And Finally


Onto the strange thing. It is this: in general terms, I don't seem to bluff any more. I play each hand to maximally exploit my opponent, and so you would think this includes a lot of bluffs where my opponent has a weak range. I can't think of another way to put this, I just can't remember the last big or medium sized bluff that I made.

Although I hate dealing in generalities these days in my play, I simply must be missing out on a ton of good spots. Maybe my new thought process based purely on hand range and equity VS that hand range has taken my eye off the ball in looking for spots where our opponent just will not call with anything.

So I guess I'm on the flop, looking at a hand range. If I'm ahead, I call or raise. If I'm behind, I fold. What I'm not doing though is saying, aha he has a 25% open range, a low WTSD, depolarised cbetting and always 3bets nuts oop, so I'm going to raise and barrel off. Failure to have this thinking has led me almost to sit there and wait for hands, and must be part of the reason I'm struggling to fully engage my brain 4 tabling despite me making a note of every single hand and doing all the usual prep work.

Maybe I'll start colour coding regs that I can pick on in general. Foldy ones, like Martin. Yeh in fact I will start doing that.

Matt Probabilty reads this blog now, so just a shoutout to say if I win this next session then I'm going to then make a video !

dan