More EV Runbad

Lost $840, EV actual of +$367. Kind of sad, but whatever. I'm 1/5 through the total number of hands I plan to play this month (but 1/3 through the month, oops). Actual winnings of $613, EV of $5400. So, if I repeat how I've been playing I should still be looking at $20000 for the month. Seems a long way off now though, think my last >$20k month was October!

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	THNX_SWEETY	$400
UTG+1	DIAMONDJIM99	$593.60
CO	VICTUMSEMPRA	$436.90
BTN	GROGHEADFLOW	$624.40
SB	IAMMAVERICK	$382
BB	INEEDMONIES	$444.50

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is BTN
• 

1 fold, DIAMONDJIM99 calls $4, 1 fold, GROGHEADFLOW raises to $18, 1 fold, INEEDMONIES calls $14, DIAMONDJIM99 folds

• Flop ($42, 2 players)
• 

INEEDMONIES bets $20, GROGHEADFLOW raises to $69, INEEDMONIES raises to $190, GROGHEADFLOW calls $121

• Turn ($422, 2 players)
• 

INEEDMONIES bets $236.50, GROGHEADFLOW calls $236.50

• River ($895, 2 players)
• 

• Final Pot: $895

• GROGHEADFLOW shows
• 

• INEEDMONIES shows
• 

• INEEDMONIES wins $891.50 (net +$447)
• GROGHEADFLOW lost $444.50
• DIAMONDJIM99 lost $4

On the flop, as a whole I'm behind his flop range. There's a >0% chance he slowplayed QQ+ to keep the fish in, and it's at least conceivable he does this with AJ. So, I'm something like 46% on the flop VS a range. I mention this spot and how to handle it quite often....... for me, flatting to see a blank turn and then committing is the way to go. My equity on a flush turn would have decreased to < 10%, but on a blank jumps to around 61%. Thus, rather than lump all the money in on the flop for a worse-than flip, see a blank and then commit.

Then, this hand made me sad:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem • 6 Players

Generated by weaktight.com.

UTG	VIETNAMGUY79	$398.50
UTG+1	THNX_SWEETY	$416
CO	PRESKOOLBRAT	$887.57
BTN	MEGAX82	$623.50
SB	GROGHEADFLOW	$396
BB	TRADEBYDAY	$486.50

• Pre-Flop ($6, 6 players)Hero is SB
• 

VIETNAMGUY79 calls $4, THNX_SWEETY calls $4, 2 folds, GROGHEADFLOW raises to $26, 1 fold, VIETNAMGUY79 calls $22, THNX_SWEETY folds

• Flop ($60, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW bets $33, VIETNAMGUY79 calls $33

• Turn ($126, 2 players)
• 

GROGHEADFLOW checks, VIETNAMGUY79 bets $91, GROGHEADFLOW goes all-in $337, VIETNAMGUY79 calls $246

• River ($800, 2 players, 1 all-in)
• 

• Final Pot: $800

• GROGHEADFLOW shows
• 

• VIETNAMGUY79 shows
• 

• VIETNAMGUY79 wins $796.50 (net +$400.50)
• GROGHEADFLOW lost $396
• THNX_SWEETY lost $4

Super standard of course, at least I think so. Although, there's something to be said for check call check call. He's not a thin value bettor, so situationally there's a chance he checks back the river. If he's betting the turn with bluffs, I should be able to call twice.

So, please let the rungood start here......