Martin watched this last session, was a huge help in terms of restoring confidence in certain spots. I've worked out a much clear PF plan now too which I'll expand on in another blog.
http://weaktight.com/4376132 - could've bet turn VS this guy, hard to give him 33 though. Huge regfish, not too unhappy. Maybe don't 3bet this particular hand VS this particular guy with this particular mindset (first hand he shoved 100bbs over my single raise bvb)
http://weaktight.com/4376139 - blehhhhh, good betsize! has to be a sigh fold VS this tight fish
http://weaktight.com/4376145 - Martin was willing me to bet this river (armchair lag). I knew my image wouldn't allow it.
http://weaktight.com/4376150 - a winning one. Was calling all high rivers, expecting him to give up low rivers. The fact that regs all have river inflection point was a very astute comment from martin during this session which will stand me very well as a default I believe.
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86 - After thinking about this more I think it's probably still a turn check even if we know he has 33 in his range. It's not that many more combos of hands really, and there are still all those other hands that don't fold. Having said that, I could be persuaded that it's just a triple barrel. I think he might peel 99-66 again on the turn, and I think he could peel AQ/KQ if he floated the flop with them. It's tough to decide though because he just has a lot of Jx that'll never fold too.
QJ - this fish had a tight opening range if I remember, so probably has to be a fold. Against a looser fish I just peel for pot odds as they do stupid things.
AQ - Yeah I think as standard I'm going to be tripling these boards now, and if they want to call down even QT they can. But their range is so many weak pairs (and even A high sometimes given this turn). I'm undecided on whether I like betting 60 or 80 though. I think if we were the BTN we'd have to give it up more as we'll get looked up a lot more.
K4 - Given you were playing and not me I really wish we'd not hit two pair and we'd called the river here. For the record (to anyone who's reading), I asked Grog if he'd called 94 to the river bet before he called, and he said he would. It's a relatively obvious spot for him to triple after check raising, but most regs do just play pretty obviously. I'm not sure what I think he'd do on non-overcard rivers - I feel like we'd have to fold to a bet on paired rivers, but I'm not sure about low rivers. If he has 65, say, and he hits a 5 or 6 I don't think he'll think it has any showdown value, so I think he might bluff that again as well.
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